The Arizona Cardinals’ undefeated season came to an end at the hands of the Green Bay Packers, 24-21, on Thursday night. My Thursday win streak has been replaced with a two-game skid, but it was a competitive game with both sides missing some key pieces.
Kyler Murray threw two interceptions on the night (the big one above) and saw his MVP talk die off a little after a generally mediocre performance. DeAndre Hopkins had one big catch but aggravated his hamstring injury and didn’t finish the game. Without D-Hop on the field, the Cards didn’t really invest in the ground game and the Packers kept them mostly contained as a result (3-TDs notwithstanding).
Green Bay was without their top-3 WRs, but they did invest in the run and it paid off with 151-yards and a TD. They also featured Aaron Jones in the passing game as he led both teams in targets and catches. More importantly, that approach helped dictate the pace and kept the Cards’ offense out of rhythm. The loss of J.J. Watt for the season already showed itself on the Cards’ defense and it was a very smart adjustment made by Packers’ coach Matt LaFleur to utilize AJ Dillon and Jones in that manner. Randall Cobb also stepped up, converting two of his three catches for TDs. Unfortunately, they lost TE Robert Tonyan for the year due to an ACL tear on his biggest play of the night.
This was a game where the Packers were getting counted out in a major way and I was among those thinking they’d get beat. Arizona had their chance to win it, but Green Bay did what good veteran-led teams do and found a way to win a tough game on the road. As a result, they are positioned much more strongly to potentially get home-field advantage and that precious first-round playoff bye.
We are essentially approaching the halfway point of the season and the playoff picture is beginning to round into shape, so let’s take a look at what’s on deck for Halloween.
(+650) Dolphins at (-1000) Bills (-14, 48.5)
Buffalo is coming out of their bye week with a chip on their shoulder and a very winnable game in front of them. The Bills already went into Miami and beat the Dolphins 35-0 and now they’re coming out of their bye after a razor-thin loss to the Titans. The Fins have lost 6-straight and are in complete disarray as the DeShaun Watson rumors have been swirling. Dawson Knox is still out with the broken hand for BUF but they should have more than enough weaponry to go around. Miami is dealing with some key injuries on both sides of the ball, but it doesn’t change the outcome much. Bills by a Billion.
Pick: Bills | Vs Spread: Bills -14 | O/U: Under 48.5
(+140) Panthers at (-160) Falcons (-3, 46.5)
The Panthers sans Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been a pretty sight. A team that got off to a 3-0 start, and looked like geniuses for getting Sam Darnold, now looks like one of the worst teams in the league. The defense had vanished and after a 25-3 L to the Giants, it appears the offense has gone as well. I’m no fan of the Falcons, although our dog Ridley is, but they have managed to get their ship back to .500 and bring hope back to their season. Kyle Pitts is rounding into the first-round draft pick he was advertised as and Atlanta is mostly healthy too. It may also help that their MLB brothers are playing for a World Series right now. This is still a division game with big implications, so I expect a competitive game and I’m going to go against the grain and pick the Falcons in consecutive weeks.
Pick: Falcons | Vs Spread: Falcons -3 | O/U: Over 46.5
(-190) Eagles at (+160) Lions (+3.5, 48)
Nothing has been the bane of my fantasy football season more than the Philadelphia Eagles. The spread has moved an extra half-point in the Eags’ direction since I recorded the podcast, but they are still only slightly favored to beat a winless team that’s been ravaged by injuries. The Lions’ #1 & #2 running backs are both questionable with leg injuries and their top-2 receivers are on injured reserve, yet they gave the Rams a fight last week. I think they fought on Jared Goff’s behalf but clearly got more dinged up in the process. Philly placed RB Miles Sanders on the IR too, but I’m hoping that just streamlines their playcalling. If the Lions are going to get their first win, this is a good situation but I can’t pick them.
Pick: Eagles | Vs Spread: Eagles -3.5 | O/U: Over 48
(+130) Titans at (-150) Colts (-2.5, 49)
I’m not sure what happened with this game, but the spread has swung 3.5-points to make Indianapolis the favorites. When I looked Saturday morning, the Titans were still favored and that was with the news of Julio Jones being out, so maybe it just took some time for the money to come in on the Colts. Tennessee is also without their starting fullback and linebacker Rashaan Evans so I was kind of leaning towards Indy anyway because they really should be riding a 4-game win streak but have nonetheless gotten their game together. Indy has the better defense but T.Y. Hilton came back from IR and he’s already questionable again along with RT Braden Smith and cornerback Xavier Rhodes. When these teams met in Week 3, the Titans won 25-16 so, even if they lose this one, they still lead the division and will likely have any tie break. The Colts need it more and probably want it more too, they just have to hold Henry mostly in check.
Pick: Colts | Vs Spread: Titans +2.5 | O/U: Under 49.5
(-1100) Rams at (+700) Texans (+16, 46.5)
The Rams are favored by more than 2-TDs once again, but they didn’t cover last week against the Lions. Despite missing Andrew Whitworth along the offensive line, Sebastian Joseph-Day along the D-line, and DeSean Jackson who is sitting out awaiting a trade, Los Angeles should cruise here. The Texans have been walloped in their last two and just traded RB Mark Ingram back to the Saints after signing him to an extension so it looks like they are mostly tapping out on this season. The Rams should go out there and handle the inferior competition.
Pick: Rams | Vs Spread: Rams -16 | O/U: Under 49.5
(-600) Bengals at (+425) Jets (+10.5, 43)
Bengals, good. Jets, bad. It’s really as simple as that and I’m surprised the spread is so small in comparison to other mismatches this week. New York is without their starting QB Zach Wilson, RB Tevin Coleman, and DE Bryce Huff, while WR Corey Davis is doubtful with no reason to really play through injury. Cincy should cruise and cover without much issue, but they could be in for an emotional letdown after their massive win over the Ravens. But still
Pick: Bengals| Vs Spread: Bengals -10.5 | O/U: Over 43
(+175) Steelers at (-210) Browns (-3.5, 43)
This game is a lot more intriguing than it would have been a few weeks ago. The Steelers have started to get some things going and have moved to 3-3 and the Browns have stumbled into a 4-3 record. Baker Mayfield is going to play through his shoulder injury and Nick Chubb is coming back for this one too, but something is pulling me towards Pittsburgh. The Steelers are the healthier team but will be without TE Eric Ebron and probably Melvin Ingram III, but Cleveland is without CB Denzel Ward and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones while WR Odell Beckham Jr. and DE Jadeveon Clowney are both highly questionable. Most importantly, the Pittsburgh defense is healthy and that could be the difference. They have a ton to gain from a win here and I’m going with my gut.
Pick: Steelers | Vs Spread: Steelers +3.5| O/U: Under 43
(-210) 49ers at (+175) Bears (+4, 39.5)
This is a good matchup between two teams in similar situations, so I’m surprised to see San Francisco favored by more than a field goal. The Niners continue to be bitten by the injury bug and they’ll be missing D-linemen Dee Ford, Maurice Hurst, and Javon Kinlaw, safety Jaquiski Tartt, and LB Azeez Al-Shaair. The Bears are comparatively healthy with only Khalil Mack sitting out but that’s a big one. Both teams are coming off losses and need wins to stay alive in the hunt. I know Chicago got dominated by Tampa Bay but that was almost to be expected, whereas the Niners getting drowned in the 2nd half at home by the Colts wasn’t a good look. My gut says Chicago for some reason. t’s going to be a chilly morning game, they are always tough at home and even hung in there with the Packers.
Pick: Bears | Vs Spread: Bears +4 | O/U: Under 39.5
(+170) Jaguars at (-200) Seahawks (-3.5, 44.5)
This is a must-win of must-win games for the Seahawks. Jacksonville has shown improvement and played in some close games, but on the road in Seattle is a different animal. Rumor has it that Russell Wilson is preparing to return in Week 10 so, if Seattle can just find a way to win, they could be 3-5 coming out of their bye week with their starting QB back under center. Seattle has to and will win.
Pick: Seahawks | Vs Spread: Seahawks -3.5 | O/U: Under 44.5
(+180) Patriots at (-220) Chargers (-4.5, 49.5)
I’ve been hearing whispers that a lot of people think New England is going to win this game on the road. They actually gained a point back on the spread and the over/under went up 2-points. So, people are thinking it’ll be something of a shootout. The Chargers have had time to lick their wounds over the bye week after the embarrassing loss to the Ravens and they’ll be ready to roll against the Pats. As usual, essentially the whole NE roster is on the injury report but I think it’s all gamesmanship by Bill Belichick. The Bolts are better than their last showing and Austin Eckler was cleared to go. Anything is possible, but I’ll take the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers | Vs Spread: Patriots +4.5 | O/U: Under 49.5
(+150) Washington at (-175) Broncos (-3, 44.5)
I don’t trust Denver at all anymore after that Thursday loss to the Browns. They are getting WR Jerry Jeudy back but they are deep at the position and that’s not what’s been the issue during their 4-game skid. Mike Purcell is out at nose tackle for Denver, but their issue is offensive identity. Washington is very thin at receiver with Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown both out. So, for Denver, it’s mostly about shutting down Scary Terry and Antonio Gibson and making Taylor Heinicke play mistake-free. He’s been below average this season but has his moments. The Denver defense isn’t as good as advertised but it’s not easy to go into Mile High Stadium and get a win. I’m going with the Broncos but if they lose, I won’t be surprised.
Pick: Broncos | Vs Spread: Broncos -3 | O/U: Over 44.5
(-220) Buccaneers at (+180) Saints (+4.5, 48.5)
I’m excited for this one because, despite the end of the Drew Brees era in New Orleans, this is still the premier rivalry in the NFC South and the division lead is up for grabs. The Bucs smashed the Bears last week while the Saints barely escaped Seattle with the win, so I’m inclined to think the Bucs are much better. They are still without WR Antonio Brown but they’ve gotten along just fine without him and Gronk should be back in part to help out. Richard Sherman also looks like he’ll rejoin the defense although he’s questionable along with JPP and Lavonte David. The key absences for New Orleans are O-lineman Andrus Pear and QB Taysom Hill. Even though Jameis Winston is the starter, Hill adds many dimensions to the offense and his presence was clearly missed in Seattle. I have no reason to think the Saints are actually on the same level as the Bucs, but it is Winston’s shot at revenge against his old squad/
Pick: Bucs | Vs Spread: Bucs -4.5| Over: 48.5
(+140) Cowboys at (-160) Vikings (-2.5, 51.5)
The line swung a lot when it was announced that Dak Prescott may not play for the Cowboys as he still deals with a calf injury. For me, that’s the game. He’s still officially listed as questionable but, if he doesn’t play, I have to go Vikes. Defensive tackle Micahel Pierce is out for Minny, but he and Dak are the only injuries of significance. For now, I have to go with the Vikings at home although the Boys have had the bye week to get back up QB Cooper Rush read for this matchup. Minnesota rarely comes through when I pick them to win, so Dallas fans can be happy about that.
Pick: Vikings | Vs Spread: Vikings -2.5 | O/U: Under 51.5
(+350) Giants at (-450) Chiefs (-9.5, 52.5)
I desperately want to see the Giants win this game after their improbable win over the Panthers last week. They have become one of the underdog teams I can’t help but pull for and Daniel Jones will be getting some of his weaponry back. WRs Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shephard look like they are going to play, although Kenny Golladay is still out along with RB Saquon Barkley. Mainly I just want to see the Chiefs fanbase implode if they were to lose this game while Patrick Mahomes’ little brother and fiancee continue to make annoying TikTok videos in their quest to be the most disliked people in the NFL sphere. It’s not going to happen, but I can dream. The Chiefs need this win desperately if only to avoid the situation I just mentioned, but they also can’t fall too far behind the playoff curve. They are supposed to win, they should win, but Go Giants.
Pick: Chiefs | Vs Spread: Giants +9.5 | O/U: Over 52.5