It wasn’t the kind of performance Bills Mafia wanted to see at home on Halloween, especially coming out of the bye week, but the Bills got the job done and still covered against the Dolphins, 26-11.
The first half was particularly ugly for the Bills’ offense as the teams went into halftime tied 3-3. When these two teams met back in Week 2, Buffalo left Miami with a 35-0 win so the bar was set pretty high. However, the Bills’ offense struggled a bit in that game too but they managed to run the ball well (143-yards, 3-TDs) and dominate on defense. Buffalo’s defense bounced back from the Titans game nicely and held Miami to only 11-points on 262 total yards, but that was almost to be expected.
Now, the Bills’ running backs weren’t particularly effective on the ground this time out (15-carries, 47-yards combined). As I watched the Halloween game and followed along with other fans on social media, the general consensus going into halftime (even from the blue-check members of Bills Mafia) was that they can’t run the ball and needed to abandon the run game. Im paraphrasing here rather than quoting particular individuals, but it has been a major point of contention I’ve had with other fans all season in regards to the philosophical approach to the offense. I have written about it at length and talked about it on the show in great detail and this Week 8 game was another prime example of the particular misconception I’m talking about.
Firstly, the Bills only ran the ball 6 times in the first half. That’s it! So, this sentiment that they were “unable” to run the ball is an inaccurate knee-jerk reaction to a handful of (albeit unsuccessful) run plays. Secondly, the only drive where they actually scored in the first half was the one where they ran the ball more than they threw it. I know that Josh Allen’s 34-yard scramble was the biggest play of the drive and that was a called pass, but the idea that the called run plays were somehow an impediment to the offense’s ability to score just isn’t true. Buffalo called 18-pass plays (vs 6-run plays) and punted three times and turned the ball over on downs with pass-dominant playcalling, but I didn’t see anyone addressing that as the issue. The Bills opened all four of their punt/turnover drives in the first half with pass plays and threw the ball 75% of the time, but it’s the run game that’s the problem? Sure thing.
Let’s not get it twisted. Before I get crucified, I’m not saying the passing game is to blame. Allen was pretty efficient going 11/17 for 80-yds in the first half, but it was the play design more than the pass/run distribution that was causing problems in the first half. The Bills aren’t really built to play power football under center for the majority of the game. It’s just not their strength and, while it would be nice to confidently line up and convert a 3rd & 1 run play, we’ve seen those telegraphed runs get smushed in the backfield repeatedly this season.
Anyway, at halftime, my recommendation in talking to others was to spread the offense out, get out from under center and into shotgun, and let Josh see the field because Miami was doing a good job collapsing the interior offensive line. That’s more or less what happened in the second half. In total, Buffalo ran 27 pass plays in the second half and Allen went 18/25 passing down the stretch for 169-yards and 2-TDs. The Bills close the game out with four-straight scoring drives, three of which resulted in TDs. It’s easy to point to those numbers and think “abandoning the run” was the right move, but formation selection had a lot to do with it and that’s not the whole story anyway.
Buffalo actually increased their run volume in the second half. Yep, that’s correct. The Bills more than doubled their run calls from the first half. Additionally, the play distribution actually moved more in favor of the run game after the half. The yards-per-carry production was still kept in check by a Fins’ defense that showed up more committed to stop the run, but it’s no surprise to me that the Bills’ offensive success actually increased as the percentage of run plays increased. The increase may seem minuscule, but it makes a difference and stands in direct contradiction to the idea that the Bills can’t and/or shouldn’t run the ball. I have articulated myself well on this point, but will most certainly face opposition regardless of the factual information.
Nonetheless, the Bills went on to dominate the second half and Cole Beasley had one of his vintage performances to help keep the sticks moving. I don’t have an actual count but he was crucial on 3rd down, converting several. Pulling in 10-catches for 110-yards marked his best statistical game so far this year and his first 100-yard game this season, but he’s put together a pair of very good games in a row now (17-catches, 198-yards, & 1-TD). Bease is a big part of what made this offense hum last year, so getting him involved is a very good sign and he’s now leading the team in receptions.
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Stefon Diggs picked up his 3rd TD of the season and continues to lead the team in receiving yards. He may not be off to the start we saw last season but he’s still on pace for 102-catches, 1221-yards, and 7-TDs. Gabriel Davis also stepped up and played a big role with Dawson Knox sidelined with the hand injury. He may have only reeled in 4-catches but the TD was a big one. Surprisingly, this was the first time this season that Emmanuel Sanders was held without a catch. Allen missed him a couple of times earlier in the game, but teams are starting to have to pick their poison against the Bills’ WR corps.
Overall, I was happy with the performance. Miami may be 1-7, but they have given other teams (including LV, TB, IND, NE) significantly more trouble. Jordan Poyer continues to be one of the best safeties in the game, recording 10-tackles and coming up with his third interception of the year so far. He’s been an absolute beast since signing with Buffalo and he’s gotten better each and every year he’s been with the Bills. Poyer’s tackle numbers may be a bit down, but that’s because of the play in front of him from guys like Tremaine Edmunds and the massive improvement along the revamped defensive line. The Bills’ front seven has been great so far this season and their defense reminds me of the Legion of Boom era in Seattle.
Performance Grade: B
The Bills head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars in Week 9 as part of a three-game stretch where their opponents have a combined 4-wins at the moment. The Jags had made some strides in the right direction but ran into a Seattle team that had their backs against the wall. There’s no reason the Bills shouldn’t leave Jacksonville with a win and a 6-2 record next week.