I am watching this completely inside-out Colts/Vikings game in the office as I get this prepped, and if this one is any indication, we are in for a wild Week 15. Obviously, I’m not going to get a chance to go over all the Saturday games and that’s a shame because this first one has been absolutely wild.
Things got off to the start I expected as I expected with the 49ers more or less dominating the Seahawks 21-13. A late score by the Hawks cut it to an 8-point game, but the 49ers’ ground game and defense ruled the day.
San Francisco ultimately finished with the advantage in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, yards per play, time of possession, and 3rd down percentage. As much as I don’t really want to say it, I love the way the Niners play football, and I had to text my brother who’s a big Niner fan to let him know that I’m kinda jealous.
If San Francisco can play with that kind of confidence, with no Deebo Samuel and no Jimmy G…that’s a problem for the NFC. I also remarked to Christen during the game that I am not so sure that Jimmy G gets his job back at this point because Purdy’s mobility allows SF to do more things. Time will tell, but Philly and Minnesota better be taking notes.
(-420) PHI Eagles 12-1 @ (+320) CHI Bears (+8.5, O/U 48.5)
There is no reason for me to suspect the Bears have a legit shot here unless Philly just doesn’t care. The Eags have to keep their foot on the gas for now as the Vikings picked up a win to stay a threat to the #1 seed. It’s going to be cold, but that’s not enough to sway me. Even the oddsmakers aren’t crazy enough to make it a 17-point spread either, so I can take PHI to cover.
Pick: PHI | ATS: PHI -8.5 | O/U: Under 48.5
(+170) ATL Falcons 5-8 @ (-205) NO Saints 4-9 (-4, O/U 43.5)
With Tampa Bay being vulnerable, especially with a tough game this week, this matchup has become more interesting. However, Atlanta move Marcus Mariota to injured reserve so it’s Desmond Ritter time. He may be the future, but stepping in against a pretty good Saints defense is still asking a ton and Atlanta doesn’t exactly have the defense to give him abundant opportunities. I like NO here and might even throw Will Lutz out there in fantasy.
Pick: NO| ATS: NO -4 | O/U: Over 43.5
(-105) DET Lions 6-7 @ (-115) NY Jets 7-6 (-1, O/U 43.5)
I was getting all ready to take the Jets at home…until Mike White got ruled out. They still have one of the best defenses in the league and the only unit that’s Top-5 in yards per attempt allowed against both the pass and the run. A good defense can stall a good offense as we saw for much of the IND/MIN game, but you’ve still gotta score points and that’s going to be tough with Zach Wilson. He was winning games and still got benched, so it’s not like NY can’t win, but the Lions have been rolling lately and their defense can bring pass pressure too. Plus, they have a very tough offense to hold down all game. I like that I can get DET as dogs here.
Pick: DET | ATS: DET +1| O/U: Under 43.5
(+130) PIT Steelers 5-8 @ (-155) CAR Panthers 5-8 (-3, O/U 37.5)
I wanted to believe in the Steelers and they looked to finally be figuring out their identity with Kenny Pickett as the QB, but he was knocked out for the second game this season with a concussion and it’s important to focus on brain health, so it’s Mediocre Mitch time once again. Pittsburgh just can’t seem to score with him in there and they have to go on the road to play a Carolina squad that is gaining confidence, gaining momentum, can score, and is playing with house money. It’s not a great recipe for the Steelers, but both teams are playing to keep their slim playoff hopes alive so it could be close. PIT is always dangerous with T.J. Watt in the lineup and it’s a winnable game, but they’ve gotta do it on both sides of the ball.
Pick: CAR | ATS: CAR -3 | O/U: Under 37.5
(-210) DAL Cowboys 10-3 @ (+175) JAX Jaguars 5-8 (+4, O/U 47.5)
You would hope that Dallas learned their lesson from the Houston game and won’t overlook Jacksonville, but the Jags are also a lot bigger challenge than the Texans. That said, the Cowboys are still the better team here and 4-points isn’t a lot for them to cover. They need to reassert themselves as a dominant force and this is a good spot, traveling to Jacksonville when it’s not gross out. I also just don’t want to overbuy the Jags after they beat up a division rival who hasn’t been stellar this season either. The gap between Tennessee and JAX is smaller than the one between Dallas and TEN, so I will go in on the Boys.
Pick: DAL | ATS: DAL -4 | O/U: Under 47.5
(-1100) KC Chiefs 10-3 @ (+700) HOU Texans 1-11-1 (+14.5, O/U 49.5)
I think Houston had their last gasp trying to win the Texas Bowl last week vs the Cowboys, but the Chiefs are in a similar position as huge favorites and expected to dominate. That’s what snake-bit Dallas. Houston is missing a lot of pieces, so the Chiefs should win and cover.
Pick: KC | ATS: KC -14.5 | O/U: Under 49.5
(+105) AZ Cardinals 4-9 @ (-125) DEN Broncos 3-10 (-1.5, O/U 36.5)
No Kyler Murray. No Russell Wilson. Nothing much on the line. No real interest. It would be hilarious to watch Denver win with Brett Rypien, a week after Wilson looked good for the first time all season. The Cardinals could have won or at least helped their cause with some better decision-making last week, and I’ll take their experience edge. It is tough to play in Mile High though.
Pick: AZ | ATS: AZ +1.5 | O/U: Under 36.5
(+100) NE Patriots 7-6 @ (-120) LV Raiders 5-8 (-1, O/U 44.5)
After the embarrassing loss to the Rams last week, Josh McDaniels gets to go against the guy who taught him everything he knows about cheating…excuse me…coaching. I meant to say coaching. The Raiders aren’t mathematically eliminated just yet, but they are in a precarious position with 4 teams ahead of them and 2 others tied at 5-8. New England is up and down but their defense has been solid. I know the Raiders are maybe looking to get Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back on the field, but I don’t know where their energy is going to be after such a deflating L last week. I don’t like it, but the Patriots are great underdog value here.
Pick: NE | ATS: NE +1 | O/U: Over 44.5
(+135) TEN Titans 7-6 @ (-160) LA Chargers 7-6 (-3, O/U 46.5)
The question surrounding both these teams is, are either of them good? They’ve both shown flashes but they also are inconsistent. The Titans sit atop the weakest division in the NFL so there’s no iron sharpens iron going on over there in the AFC South. If TEN can get Derrick Henry going and work the play-action they’ll have a chance, but after what Trevor Lawrence just did to them I have to get behind Herbs and the Bolts.
Pick: LAC | ATS: LAC -3 | O/U: Over 46.5
(-195) CIN Bengals 9-4 @ (+162) TB Buccaneers 6-7 (+3.5, O/U 45)
It’s hard to bet against Tom Brady, but it’s been a lot less hard this season. Cincy has won 5 in a row while Bucs are up and down. After getting pummeled by the 49ers, you’d expect the Bucs to bounce back some but they are stepping right into another game against a really good team in the Bengals. If everything goes well for Tampa, they can get one, but I haven’t seen that happen much for them and they are still thin in the secondary which won’t help against Burrow, Chase, and company.
Pick: CIN | ATS: CIN -3.5 | O/U: Under 45
(+185) NY Giants 7-5-1 @ (-225) WSH Commanders 7-5-1 (-4.5, O/U 40.5)
Washington escaped with a tie the last time these teams played in New York and then went into their bye week to rest up and prepare while the Giants went and got whipped by Philly. The Commanders aren’t the same threat but they do like to run the ball too and do have a win over Philly. These teams are very similar and that’s why they played to a draw last time, but I like the Washington defensive front more. It should be a close one again, so I’m going to hedge a bit.
Pick: WSH | ATS: NYG +4.5 | O/U: Over 40.5
(+260) LA Rams 4-9 @ (-335) GB Packers 5-8 (-7, O/U 39.5)
If there were ever a game that should be flexed out of the primetime slot, this would be the one. The Packers are still alive in the NFC Wild Card race and a win would make their final push very interesting. I am really happy that Baker busted out the magic in his Rams’ debut, but going to Lambeau at this time of the year is different. It’s going to be about 11 degrees outside and the Packers just strike me as more dynamic (right?) and a bad matchup for LA.
Pick: GB | ATS: GB -7 | O/U: Under 39.5
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