(+158) IND Colts 4-8-1 @ (-190) MIN Vikings 10-3 (-3.5, O/U 47.5)
Both Jonathan Taylor and Justin Jefferson have established themselves among the very best at their respective positions, but are a lot different than they were when these two teams met a couple of years ago. Minnesota is having its best year with Kirk Cousins under center while the Colts are finding out exactly what it’s like to struggle with inconsistency at the QB position. Indianapolis is technically still alive in the Wild Card hunt, but the Vikings have a chance to wrap up the division with a win after losing to the Lions last week.
Indy is coming off their bye week and they are pretty healthy with only corners Kenny Moore II and Brandon Facyson ruled out, but it’s Shaquille Leonard on injured reserve that’s the biggest issue for their defense. They are still Top 10 in yards allowed but they are 18th in points, so that tells me they are losing the field position game. However, that’s still better than the Vikes who are 24th in scoring defense and they would be last in yards allowed if the Seahawks hadn’t played on Thursday.
This is about a good spot as you could hope for the Colts’ offense that’s ranked 25th in yardage and 31st in scoring. If they can’t move the ball and put some point on Minny, then they can’t against anyone. Even if they do, they still have to contend with a Vikings’ offense that’s Top 10 in scoring (17th in yards) and turns the ball over about half as much. Minnesota is also significantly better on 3rd down, 4th down, and in the red zone.
I’m not saying the Colts can’t win this game, but even if they play a great game Indy has only scored more than 20 points twice this season and I don’t think that’s enough to get the job done against the Vikings but they did play Philly tough, so I could see it being close and more low scoring than we may want.
Pick: MIN | ATS: IND +3.5 | O/U: Under 47.5
(+130) BAL Ravens @ (-155) CLE Browns (-3, O/U 39)
It’s basically put up or shut up time for the Browns as they are hanging on to their playoff hopes by a thread at 5-8. The good news for Cleveland is that Lamar Jackson is out and Baltimore is dealing with some injuries on the right side of their line. Beyond that, it should give the Browns some confidence to know that they are fairly healthy and played a very competitive game against the Ravens earlier in the season when CLE was really in the dumps.
The bad news, for Cleveland, is that the Ravens are 2-0 in the games since Lamar got hurt. The silver lining is that those two wins were against mid-to-low-level teams, the Steelers and Broncos.
It may surprise you to know that the Browns actually have the better offense but also not too surprising that they turn the ball over more. Defensively, the teams aren’t that far off. Baltimore has been great against the run (2nd) but also terrible against the pass (26th) so why bother running against them? Well, the Browns have to establish the run or find a way to get Nick Chubb going. The Ravens have also never seen the Browns with their new signal caller, so that’s an extra wrinkle that could be an issue.
Cleveland’s defense is also weakest where Baltimore’s offense is strongest, on the ground, and there’s bound to be plenty of that headed their way with Tyler Huntley in at QB. He’s not Lamar, but he can move and make plays so the Browns have to take advantage of whatever deficiencies are there on the Ravens’ O-line. Huntley was also dealing with some injuries last week, so that could be a factor again in a physical matchup.
I am a little surprised to see the Browns as favorites but it’s make-or-break time. They did beat Tyler Huntley last year, and the Ravens don’t need this game as much as the Browns do. With cold temperatures and maybe even snow at game time, Cleveland’s smash-mouth style could make the price of victory too high and present a window of opportunity for them.
Pick: CLE | ATS: CLE -3 | O/U: Over 39
(+270) MIA Dolphins 8-5 @ (-345) BUF Bills 10-3 (-7, O/U 43.5)
Speaking of snow in the forecast, it’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas in Buffalo and we could see anywhere from a few inches to a couple of feet of powder for Saturday’s primetime showcase. Miami relies on their big play capability and quick strike offense quite a lot and that’s going to be nerfed if there’s a lot of snow.
The Bills are healthier this time around in comparison to these teams’ Week 3 meeting, but Rick Bates leaving that game with an injury was a problem and it’s probably going to be one again in this game. AJ Epenesa and Jordan Phillips being out on the D-line isn’t ideal, but the rest of the gang has stepped up in Von Miller’s absence and I think they’ll be fine.
The Fins won’t have Eric Rowe or Byron Jones in the secondary for the rematch, and LT Terron Armstead only got in one limited practice as he deals with a variety of lower body injuries. If I were the Bills, I’m going to want to apply pressure in those areas as much as possible because we know Josh can sling it in the snow.
Buffalo is 7-2 in the nine games during the Josh Allen era and both of those losses were one-score losses in Miami where the Bills had the ball in the red zone at the end of regulation. This is a different Dolphins team though and they’ve earned my respect, but something is up the last few weeks. They hung tough against a great 49ers’ defense but then Tua looked like all his confidence was gone against the Chargers the following week, so the Bills have two weeks of tape to figure implement what worked. Plus we don’t know what Tua is going to look like throwing in the snow.
Both of these teams have Top 10 offenses thanks to their passing attacks but, with the conditions trending towards blizzard, it’s the Bills 8th ranked rushing attack that will be the biggest factor in this game. Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey can’t shy away from that here and especially if the snow nerfs the passing game. Buffalo also has the biggest, baddest rushing weapon on the field in Josh Allen and he’s going to want to scramble a lot. Miami is 29th in rushing. So, the Bills just have to stay disciplined on the RPO reads and dare Miami to try and win the game on the ground.
Buffalo also has a Top 10 defense that has forced about twice as many turnovers as the Dolphins (tied for 2nd most in the league at 22), so that’s going to help. The Dolphins’ defense really isn’t that bad either as they are not far behind the Bills against both the pash and the rush, but it’s the scoring defense where the Bills have a major edge. Buffalo is 2nd best at just 17 PPG whereas Miami is 23rd, giving up a TD more per game.
It was close the first time out and it could be close again but Allen was a bad throw away from finding an open man for the win in a game where everyone was dropping from exhaustion. That won’t be the case again but taking the Bills to cover scares me a bit.
Pick: BUF | ATS: MIA +7 | O/U: Under 43.5
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