UFC 223 – For Better Or Worse

No matter what happens Saturday night at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the shadow of Conor McGregor looms large over the event and the entire company moving forward. The Irishman already had already turned the UFC into his own personal publicity soap box, but this most recent incident was a whole new level of madness. There are plenty of outlets covering that story, but the long and short of it is that McGregor went apeshit and smashed up a bus filled with fighters on hand for press duties surrounding UFC 223…you can see videos of the incident below.

While McGregor was arrested for his antics and will face some disciplinary actions down the road, there are still two titles on the line Saturday night. Well, sort of. Interim Champion Tony Ferguson was initially slated to defend against Khabib Nurmagomedov, but tore his ACL in a freak non-training incident. Current 145lb Champion Max Holloway then accepted the fight on short notice, but couldn’t safely cut 20-plus pounds in a week and was declared medically unfit. Next, former UFC Lightweight kingpin Anthony Pettis was ready to answer the call but couldn’t come to terms on the money side and walked away from the table. So, in the new main event, the #1 contender Khabib (25-0) faces #11 ranked “Raging” Al Iaquinta (13-3-1) for the now vacated UFC Lightweight Championship. Because Iaquinta was a last minute replacement and slightly over the 155lb limit, only Nurmagomedov is eligible to win the title.

This fight may actually shape up to be more interesting than some of the alternatives. While Khabib becomes even more of a prohibitive favorite at -500, Iaquinta sits at +350 which is a sizeable but not insane gap. The spread translates to about 4/1 in favor of Khabib, which is actually pretty good opportunity to put money on “Raging” Al. Obviously he is the underdog for a reason, but “The Eagle” may have his focus elsewhere after everything that’s happened. With less of a perceived threat in front of him, Khabib may be more likely to exchange in the stand-up game and give Iaquinta some opportunities to make an exciting fight. Furthermore, it’s the opportunity of a lifetime for Iaquinta. He has absolutely nothing to lose. A long outspoken critic of his employer, a good performance will get him both exposure and leverage. The fight will likely see Nurmagomedov test the waters on the feet early and if there’s anything he doesn’t like, he’ll look to exploit his beastly grappling advantage. At the end of the night, Khabib wants the belt and all the bargaining power that comes along with it. Even if he’s not at his absolute best, there is a reason he’s never lost and ultimately he should get the W against Iaquinta…but anything can happen.

In the co-main event, Women’s Strawweight Champion Rose Namajunas defends the belt for the first time against former champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk. This time around the odds are even with both fighters coming at at -115. In the first meeting, “Thug” Rose pressured the then champion relentlessly and landed several heavy shots on the feet before finishing the fight with strikes on the ground. That was Jedrzejczyk’s first loss and up until that moment she’d been a dominant and bullying champion. She had won the belt from Carla Esparza in 2015 and defended it five times over the course of 32 months, a torrid pace that perhaps took its toll. Something has to give eventually, and Rose fought the perfect fight to make that happen.

Joanna reminds me a lot of Chuck Liddell during his heyday as Light Heavyweight Champion, a vicious striker with excellent take down defense. Chuck was a dominant champ, but eventually had his career trajectory altered by Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. The two had fought in Pride FC where Jackson won via TKO and when he finally made his UFC debut, Rampage viciously knocked out Liddell with a left-hook and follow up elbow-hammer fist on the ground. Chuck never fought for the title again. The key for Jackson was that he didn’t fear Liddell and I think the same is true of Rose in regards to Joanna. Psychological warfare and intimidation were such a large part of Joanna’s mystique and perceived invincibility, but Rose didn’t play into it.

During their first fight, Jedrzejczyk tried to stick to the outside and utilize her jab, kicks and speed. Rose was incredibly patient and methodical, even during the build up. As much as I don’t want to count Joanna out, there isn’t much she can do differently this time around. She had a tough weight cut last time and came up with a lot of reasons for why she lost, but tactically she was doing what she had always done, only this time she got beat. The former champion has the tools necessary to win, but her approach to the fight can’t be the same or the result will be the same. Surely Jedrzejczyk has something to prove, but so does Namajunas. A win for Joanna demonstrates resiliency and shows what champions are made of. A win for Rose cements her as the best Strawweight on the planet and eliminates any doubt that the first fight was a fluke. The best heroes always have great villains and both women have compelling narratives. This is easily the most important rematch in the history of Women’s MMA and I’d rather just enjoy it than take sides.

There are some other interesting fight on the card even though many critics might disagree. Highly touted Zabit Magomedsharipov (14-1) takes on Kyle Bochniak (8-2) in a featured featherweight clash. The winner will likely climb into the official rankings and get some serious attention moving forward. The #4 ranked Karolina Kowalkiewicz (11-2) will clash with #8 ranked Felice Herrig (14-6) in the women’s strawweight contender fight headlining the prelims. Also on the prelims, the always entertaining #14 lightweight Evan Dunham (18-6-1) squares off against the highly regarded Canadian prospect Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-2). Despite all of the drama that surrounds this event, and many pundits who have been critical of the main event, there are still plenty of good fights and the UFC actually deserves a fair amount of credit (and less criticism) for being able to salvage the event on short notice.