Things don’t always go according to plan, my plan anyway, and I am looking to get a Thursday night win back so I can roll it over into a new streak. I am currently 6-2 on Thursday Night Football and I should pick up a W as the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles go to Houston to play the one-win Texans.
(-700) PHI Eagles 7-0 at (+500) HOU Texans 1-5-1 (+13.5, O/U 45)
This game is so lopsided on paper that it’s difficult for me to think of any reasons, off the top of my head, why the Texans would be able to make this a game. However, the games aren’t played on paper and I am sure the Texans have been hearing all about how they are going to get smoked by the Eags. However, I will do my due diligence.
At a bare minimum, not getting embarrassed on National TV might be a motivating factor but it’s still a big ask from a team that didn’t make any kind of move at the trade deadline to improve or even get draft capital for next season, and now they have a disgruntled and at least somewhat injured #1 receiver who won’t be playing in this game.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Brandin Cooks had a full practice Monday but didn’t practice on Tuesday or Wednesday, so he’s not going to play, but their #2 WR Nico Collins is also OUT for this one. That leaves Phillip Dorsett, Chirs Moore, and Tyron Johnson. This could mean an uptick in usage for TEs Brevin Jordan and O.J. Howard but their three players at the position (along with Jordan Akins) represent the 28th, 31st, and 32nd fantasy tight ends respectively, so I wouldn’t hold my breath on that.
The burden is going to be on rookie running back Dameon Pierce and 2nd-year QB Davis Mills, as has realistically been the case all year. Mills hasn’t improved from last season and his rates have actually declined in most areas. He doesn’t rank higher than 21st in any of the significant QB categories. In fact, he’s a few steps down from there across the board and his total QBR ranks 34th. Pierce is having a solid rookie year and he’s touching the ball a lot (6thin carries). However, he’s 12th in yards so it’s a grind even when the getting is good. He is starting to become a bigger presence in the passing attack bringing in 16 catches over the last 4 games in comparison to just 4 catches over the first three games. The target numbers are there and Houston has no choice but to try and win the game on his shoulders.
It is going to be an uphill battle because Philly does have a very tough defense but they are gettable on the ground. The Eags have the league’s 4th best pass defense in YPG but they give up the 4th most YPC vs the run and the 15th most YPG too. If there is anywhere the Texans might be able to compete, it’s in the trenches.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Bradberry | CB | Rest | LP | Unspecified | ||
| A.J. Brown | WR | Rest | LP | Unspecified | ||
| Fletcher Cox | DE | Rest | LP | Unspecified | ||
| Jordan Davis | DT | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Landon Dickerson | G | Rest | LP | Unspecified | ||
| Brandon Graham | DE | Rest | LP | Unspecified | ||
| Lane Johnson | OT | Rest | LP | Unspecified | ||
| Jason Kelce | C | Rest | LP | Unspecified | ||
| Josiah Scott | CB | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Isaac Seumalo | G | Rest | LP | Unspecified | ||
| Darius Slay | CB | Rest | LP | Unspecified | ||
| Josh Sweat | DE | Rest | LP | Unspecified |
The Eagles are coming out of their bye week and it looks like they just had some extra rest days this week and they are pretty healthy. With DT Jordan Davis on injured reserve, they acquired a very capable pass rusher in Robert Quinn from the Bears. They are well-rested and ready to go.
It took Philly a while to figure out who they were last season but, once they found their identity as a running team, things started clicking. They have the 6th-ranked rushing attack at 150-YPG and the 10th-ranked passing attack at 246-YPG. That is a great balance and it plays to the strengths of their dynamic quarterback.
Jalen Hurts has made a nice leap and is now 8th in the league in total QBR where he was 19th last season. His stats are up across the board and he is showing that he put in the work to get to the next level. It is a big part of the reason why the team went from barely above .500 last year to unbeaten through two months this season. That two-way threat is still there as Hurts has 303 yards rushing and 6 TDs but he is better about knowing when and when not to use which skill set. He has developed into a very dangerous QB and a good leader.
Of course, it helps your development as a QB when your front office goes out and gets you a new #1 WR to help you out. A.J. Brown has had some monster games but he has been a huge contributor, having only one game with less than 65 yards on the season. His presence forces the defense to pay respect and opens up the playbook quite a lot. Will he have another 150-yard game with 3 TDs? Probably not, but that’s likely because the Texans’ run defense is so bad Philly won’t need to throw so much.
Houston gives up an eye-popping 185.6 rushing yards per game, dead last in the league by 30 YPG. That’s a recipe for disaster with the Eags’ run game and we saw what Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry just did to them. So if you have Miles Sanders on your fantasy team, fire him up. You may even get TDs from Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott if the getting’s good.
There should always be a healthy level of respect for your opponent, regardless of circumstance. The Texans may come out and play their best game of the season and make it undesirable for the Eags to risk it. After all, it is mostly a meaningless game. Philly is out in front of the NFC and Houston renewed their lease on the AFC basement apartment, but stranger things have happened. That said, I think Philly has too much pride and is too good to let that happen.
Pick: PHI | ATS: PHI -13.5 | O/U: Under 45 | Final: PHI 34 – 10 HOU
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