The NFL season is motoring right along and we have arrived at what was supposed to be a much more promising and intriguing mid-season clash of early-season favorites caught in the muck as the Baltimore Ravens head to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I have been pretty solid on on Thursday Night Football picks this season and I’m trying to extend this current streak. I am 6-1 on picks, 3-3 against the spread, but (surprisingly) 6-1 on the over/under, and I hit the trifecta three times. I have my instincts about this game but let’s go through it.
(-115) BAL Ravens 4-3 at (-105) TB Buccaneers 3-3 (-2, O/U 46)
A lot has changed since Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady last crossed paths in 2019 when the Ravens, and Jackson in particular, dominated the Patriots 37-20 in Brady’s final season with his old team. But the more things change, the more they stay the same. Jackson went on to win MVP that season but they got pummeled by the Titans in the divisional round of the playoffs and haven’t made it any further in the post-season since. Brady changed scenery but went right back to winning the Super Bowl. As Tom flirts with retirement and Lamar plays for a contract the Ravens don’t appear to want to give him, this is something of a crossroads game for both players.
The offseason held a lot of drama for Tom Brady and when Tampa started the season 2-0, it was convenient to think they were just taking the path of least resistance while they got up to speed. However, they are 1-4 in their last 5 games including back-to-back losses to PIT and CAR who were 1-win teams at the time. They were also the beneficiaries of a controversial roughing the passer call in a close game with ATL, so they could’ve realistically lost 5-in-a-row. Oddly enough, Brady’s numbers have all gone up over the course of those 5 games, but the team still isn’t scoring.
He’s averaging 308-YPG 64.7% completions, with 6 TDs and no interceptions over that span. However, there only averaging 17 points per game during that stretch and it’s been the theme all season. Aside from the 31 points they scored against the Chiefs, playing from way behind, they’re averaging just 15.5-PPG compared the 30.1-PPG last season. Mike Evans dropping a wide-open would-be TD last week was sort of a microcosm of that. However, it’s not the passing game that’s the real problem.
Tampa Bay 6th in league in total passing yards & YPG, 8th in QB rating, and have the 2nd fewest sacks given up, but their yards-per-completion is near the bottom. Ryan Jensen’s presence at center is certainly missed, but this is where Gronk’s absence is particularly noticeable. His ability to vertically stretch the middle of the defense was a major threat and it opened up better opportunities for everyone else. As you’d probably expect, Evans and Chris Godwin lead the team in targets but Leonard Fournette has absorbed a lot of Gronk’s vacated targets and leads them in catches. He’s not running seam routes though, and that means there are a lot more check downs and a shallower average depth of target.
The bigger factor is that Fournette and the Bucs’ running game has gone off a cliff since their hot start. Lenny started the season with a 127-yard outburst vs a very good Dallas defense in Week 1 and had a tough-sledding kinda day against the Saints for 65 yards in Week 2. Since then, he’s got 58 carries for 170 yards in their last five games with just one rushing TD. He was a very effective receiver in most of those, averaging 6-rec, 44-yds, and 0.6-TDs, but teams have forced them to be more one dimensional and the results aren’t good.
Now that I have thoroughly covered Tampa’s offensive woes, it’s time to turn the microscope on the Ravens offense.
Jackson didn’t look great last week as the Ravens edged out a 23-20 win over an exceedingly mediocre Browns team and, realistically, he hasn’t looked sharp as a passer since the end of the first half vs Buffalo in Week 4. Maybe that’s because the Bills’ defensive quality provided a bit of a blueprint for slowing him down, but over the last three games he’s only completing 56.3% of his passes (down from 65%), his average passing yards per game has fallen to 168-YPG ( down from 223), and his average completion has dropped to 6.5-YPC (down from 7.6), with just 2 TDs and 2 INTs over that span. His rushing is also down, from 79-YPG to 64.6, over the last three games.
Part of that is Jackson gets sacked a lot for a mobile QB. The numbers are down from last season, but they are on the rise over the last 3 games and his completion % has fallen as a result. I don’t know if it’s just bad offensive line play, indecisiveness on Lamar’s part, poor peripheral vision (which makes sense from a lot of what I’ve seen), or all of the above. Jackson is one of the most dynamic guys in the league, but he can’t help from the turf. While this isn’t the Bucs pass rush of the last few years, they are still 4th in the league in sacks, 9th in pressure rate, and 4th in blitz rate. Rest assured, they will make Lamar have to earn it.
However, the Ravens have managed to win some close ones because they stay committed to the run at all costs. For the purpose of comparison, using the same 5-game sample size I did with the Bucs, Baltimore is averaging 175.2 YPG rushing. A lot of that rushing still comes from Jackson, but their identity and their ability to compete is based on their ground and pound philosophy. Baltimore is 5th in the NFL in rushing but their 5.4-YPC is 2nd best and, sure, the opponents they beat in that window don’t even have 10-wins combined, but their losses were to the (5-1) Bills and (5-1) Giants and both of those were by 4 points or less.
This is important because the historically-stout Bucs’ run defense isn’t the same as it has been over the past several years. The five-game skid the Bucs are dealing with also coincides with the absence of Akiem Hicks who was major offseason acquisition to soften the blow of the departures of Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. Hicks is right at the top of the food chain when it comes to interior D-linemen but he only played in the first two games of the year, both wins. Tampa had the 3rd best run defense in terms of YPG allowed last season but they are giving up nearly 30 more YPG on the ground this season. There was hope he would play, but he’s OUT once again.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | TE | Neck | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Carlton Davis | CB | Hip | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Russell Gage | WR | Hamstring | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Luke Goedeke | G | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Akiem Hicks | DE | Foot | LP | LP | LP | Out |
| Julio Jones | WR | Knee | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | CB | Quad | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | S | Concussion | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
Their bigger concern defensively has to be a secondary that is suddenly shredded again, much like their rough patch last season. Cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Sean Murphy-Bunting are both OUT along strong safety Antoine Winfield Jr., and they are especially thin with Logan Ryan already on injured reserve. What I’m looking at shows only 5 active secondary players on the roster and that’s going to be a huge problem. Tampa’s linebackers have a lot of speed, but it’s asking a lot of them to help in coverage and chase down Lamar.
The Bucs also will be without left guard Luke Goedeke, tight end Cameron Brate, and wide receiver Russell Gage. Julio Jones is listed as questionable, but I think we have all learned to not hold our breath on that. The bright spot may be the emergence of TE Cade Otton who was always viewed as the true replacement for Gronk. He had his best game of the season last week but also fell on one targeted route that turned into an interception. The upside is there, but he’s still a rookie.
Speaking of tight ends, Mark Andrew is on the south side of questionable heading into this matchup for the Ravens. He played in Sunday’s win over the Browns, but didn’t record a catch then sat out practice all week. He’s the go-to guy in their offense and it could be a big problem if he doesn’t play given that both recently returned RB Gus Edwards and WR Rashod Bateman are questionable too.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Baltimore’s defense is less beat up than Tampa’s, but short weeks are killer. Their best D-lineman, Calais Campbell, is OUT with their top two CBs Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters both questionable with soft tissue injuries, which is always the case in recovering from season ending ACL tears the year prior, along with LB Josh Bynes.
Even at full strength, the Ravens’ defense has been bad this season and all of their losses are games where they blew double digit leads. They have given up the 5th most yards and the 12th most yards per play. Their defensive scoring isn’t good either, ranked 21st at 23.0 PPG. That is the one area, where the Bucs have remained strong despite their offensive woes.
Tampa is still tied for 5th best in yards per play against, about a whole yard better than the Ravens. They are 7th best in total yards against, and 5th best in points per game allowed at just 17.7 PPG. That’s a little more than 5-PPG less than the Ravens, but it remains to be seen if they can compete with so many secondary pieces missing.
When I first sat down to write about this game, the Bucs were 1-point underdogs on Wednesday. Obviously, a lot of other people are viewing this as a must-win kind of game for them after getting embarrassed last week, and the spread has swung 3 points to have Tampa now favored by 2 points.
The Ravens have been the better team but they’ve shown some vulnerabilities Tampa can exploit, and I have to believe we haven’t seen the best version of the Bucs yet. It’s more than reasonable to think that we still won’t, but there’s really nowhere to go but up. As long as they can get some pressure and run the ball more effectively, they should be able to find the endzone a couple times and win close one.
I was already leaning towards the Bucs for a few reasons but it would have been great to get them as underdogs. They got embarrassed last week and I know that can’t sit well with them. They are back home, in the National spotlight, and they need to win in the worst way. It’s quite possible that they get blown out again with all the injuries, but I am going to stick with my instincts.
Pick: TB | ATS: TB -2| O/U: Under 46 | Final: TB 23 – 20 BAL
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