It’s Week 15 in the NFL regular season and that means it’s the fantasy playoffs for those of us that made it. My condolences to those who didn’t make it and, if it’s any consolation, my team is mostly Jonathan Taylor dragging a weighted sled. That said, we head into a pivotal Thursday showdown in the AFC West between the Chiefs and the Chargers.
(-160) Chiefs at (+140) Chargers (+3, o/u 53.5)
The last time these teams met was all the way back in Week 3 when the Chargers went into Arrowhead and stunned the Chiefs 30-24. It was a close game where Kansas City was winning the yardage and time of possession battle but they couldn’t stop turning the ball over. Patrick Mahomes threw a pair of interceptions, one of which was just hysterical, and both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Tyreek Hill coughed up fumbles. Los Angeles broke the tie with about 30-seconds left in the game and that was enough. Not to diminish what they did in that game, because it’s a big deal to go into KC and win, but the Chiefs were also playing with little respect for the Bolts. I highly doubt that will be the case this time around.
This matchup will likely determine who sits on the AFC West throne this season and despite losing to the Chargers in that Week 3 game, the Chiefs have won six straight to get back in front and are tied for the best overall record in the conference. The Bolts have been up and down since their first meeting, going 6-4 since then with some good wins and odd losses. Their dominant victory in Cincinnati last week was a big boost to their playoff chances and put them in a position to challenge for the division, but the divisional road always goes through Kansas City (figuratively speaking).
While all the teams are gearing up for the final push towards the playoffs, a new surge of covid cases has swept across the league. Last I read, there were over 100 players who have been placed on the Covid-Reserve list at this point and you can bet that number is going to continue to swell. In terms of this game, Kansas City will be without their best defensive, Chris Jones, along the D-line. His positive Covid test may loom large, not only as a potential threat to other players, but KC’s defense will also be without linebacker Willie Gay and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. Those are starters at every level of the defense and it will certainly be something to watch since the Chiefs’ win streak has been mostly predicated on defense.
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Chargers’ receiver Keenan Allen returns from the Covid-Reserve list and Mike Williams was taken off the injury report but Austin Eckler is still being listed as questionable. He was limited in practice all week with an ankle injury, so the size of his role will likely depend on the game script. Safety Derwin James and CB Asante Samuel Jr. are both questionable too. The Bolts are in a better roster-wise but starting left tackle Rashawn Slater was a late addition to the reserve/Covid list and will miss the game.
Offensively, these teams line up pretty evenly across the board. They are both in the Top-6 in total yards and Top-8 in yards-per-play. They are both Top-6 in passing, with the Chargers having a sliver of an advantage in the numbers, and their run games are similar, with the Chiefs having a small advantage there. They are so similar, in fact, that both teams average exactly 27-points-per-game and have scored 351-points each on the season. Even their conversion rates are comparable with KC having an edge on 3rd and 4th down and LA having an edge in the red zone. They couldn’t be more evenly matched on offense, but that’s not where this game will be decided.
Kansas City has gotten back to basics and their defense has improved quite a lot since their rocky start. The Bolts surrender fewer yards total, but that’s because it’s exceedingly easy to run on them. They are 31st in rush defense, giving up a whopping 140.7-YPG with the 4th highest yards-per-carry. Their 18-TDs surrendered on the ground is also 3rd highest. Even though they held Joe Mixon mostly in check last week, it was a negative game script early for the Bengals and they had to throw more than they wanted to.
The Chiefs’ defensive YPC isn’t great either giving up the 6th highest YPC but they manage to discourage the run. Whether or not they can do that without Chris Jones on the field remains to be seen, but their scoring defense also gives up almost a full touchdown less than the Chargers’ per game. A huge part of KC’s recent success has been their 7th best point differential (+83) as opposed to the Bolts’ 17th ranked (+15). A big part of the Chargers’ inconsistency has been their defense giving up more than 27-PPG in their five losses and 25-PPG in their eight wins. With the Chiefs just hanging 48-pts on the Raiders last week, the Chargers’ defense will be under fire.
My gut has been saying Chiefs all along and I don’t want to overreact to the players who are out. Key injuries at every level of the KC defense are surely something to keep an eye on. Looking at their first meeting, had they not turned the ball over four times, KC probably hangs on to win that game, and as long as they don’t cough it up they should be able to get this one back.
Pick: Chiefs | ATS: Chargers +3 | O/U: Over 53.5 | Final: KC 28 – 26 LAC