TNF Preview – Week 10: Ravens at Dolphins

It’s a quick turnaround for both teams, coming off victories in Week 9, as they clash in South Florida to get things started in Week 10.

(-380) Ravens at (+300) Dolphins (+7.5, o/u 46.5)

Lamar Jackson was essentially perfect last time these teams met

There will be more than QB play that factors into this matchup, but last time Lamar Jackson played the Dolphins he threw for 324-yards and 5-TDs en route to a 59-10 win for Baltimore to start the 2019 season. Jackson went on to win MVP that season. He isn’t on the same statistical trajectory this season, but it’s been a big improvement from last season and he’s currently averaging the most yards-per-game of his career and has engineered more 4th-quarter comebacks this season than the rest of his career combines. So, there’s plenty of reason why the Ravens’ QB has a decided edge in this game.

Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t even in the NFL at that point, but he is now and he gets to face a tenacious blitzing defense on one of the league’s top teams. That is if IF he plays. The Dolphins’ second-year QB is dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand and has been limited in practice. He’s played pretty well since coming back from his rib injury but, if he can’t start, we’ll probably see Jacoby Brissett get the nod with Tua as the backup.

Devonta Freeman has found new life playing in Baltimore and has scored in 3-straight

The injury to the Ravens’ running backs has remained an issue. Latavius Murray was brought in for Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins but he is still listed as doubtful as he continues to deal with an ankle injury suffered a few weeks back. In his absence, Devonta Freeman (pictured above) will be the lead back. He rose to the occasion last week with 83-yards from scrimmage and a TD. He’ll probably split some carries with Le’Veon Bell who contributed 48-yards and a score last week too. I’d take that backfield over the combo of Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed who struggle to find consistency behind a poor offensive line.

Even though Sammy Watkins is questionable, he got in a full practice and we might just see the full capabilities of the Ravens’ overhauled wide receiver corps. There is no question that it’s still a Hollywood and Andrews-first group but, with the addition of Rookie Rashod Bateman and a hopefully healthy Watkins, Baltimore has a lot of potential in the passing game now. They’re 12th in passing right now and haven’t had everyone fully healthy yet, so watch out.

Jaylen Waddle is certainly a star in the making, but he’s not in the best position

On the other side of the ball, most of Miami’s top WRs are injured with Devante Parker recently joining Will Fuller V and Allen Hurns on injured reserve. That leaves rookie Jaylen Waddle as the #1 and he’s taken full advantage. He’s currently 6th, 9th in targets, and has one of the best catch rates among the reception leaders but, as the primary weapon, he’s drawing a lot of focus and not quite turning all the touches into big plays and/or TDs. He’s only one player and that’s why the Ravens have the edge there as well.

This isn’t the Baltimore defense of generations past, but 15th isn’t too bad. Miami on the other hand has given up the most yards to opposing offenses. The Fins are last against the pass and 18th against the run, but they still give up 111-yards-per-game on the ground. They did shut down the Texans but that isn’t saying much. So, the edge goes to Baltimore there as well.

There is almost nothing I see to suggest that Miami wins this game. They are playing at home and maybe the humidity will get to Baltimore, but Maryland is pretty humid at times. It has been a really weird few weeks though.

Pick: Ravens | Vs Spread: Ravens -7.5 | O/U: Over 46.5 | Final: BAL 34 – 17 MIA

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