It is Super Bowl week and, while I am going to be on vacation while the game is taking place in my hometown, I couldn’t leave without taking a look at this game. Besides, tickets are starting north of $5,500-dollars for a single ticket. That’s more than our entire two-week Hawaiian vacation! So, as much as I have always wanted to go to the SB, I’ll wait for the Bills to make it there before considering that kind of price tag. The appetite for the real, competitive football was heightened thanks to the pillow fight known as the Pro Bowl (was that secretly a 4D chess move by the NFL?) and we are getting an intriguing matchup that should be a lot of fun.
(+160) Cincinnati Bengals vs (-190) Los Angeles Rams (-4, O/U 88.5)
The Story: When the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford on January 30th of 2021, it was a sign that they were ready to go all-in to get back to the Super Bowl. They tripled down on that mentality when they acquired Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller mid-season and a little over a year after the Stafford trade, the Rams will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy at home in Los Angeles, under the multi-billion-dollar lights of Sofi Stadium.
It looked a little dicey there as they lost three in a row to the Titans, 49ers, and Packers but, once Miller and Beckham Jr. found their rhythm, the Rams righted the ship and have won eight of their last nine games. LA manhandled the Cardinals in the opening round of the playoffs, then went down to Tampa Bay and vanquished the defending champs in dramatic fashion, and punched their ticket to SB LVI with another dramatic win over the Niners (snapping their 6-game skid against their NFC West rival). It has all been by design to this point, but there’s still one major hurdle left and that’s the underdogs from Cincinatti.
While the Rams were one of the favorites to win the SB at the start of the season (+1200), the Bengals were near the bottom of the list (+10,000). So, if you are a diehard Bengals fans that threw some money on them at the beginning of the year, you are looking a potentially monstrous payday if they pull off the win. Now, the Bengals finished the season much, much better than preseason odds would have suggested but still entered the playoffs as considerable underdogs (+1700). I didn’t expect them to make it to this point either, but they have earned their way to the Big Game.
Cincy started their playoff run with a very resilient and determined Raiders team that had been through more than most teams in a single season, then they went to Nashville to take on the #1 seed Titans and overcame a stampede of pressure to get the win and, finally, they went into Kansas City and overcame a 21-3 deficit to dispatch the reigning AFC champs in OT. Neither team has had an easy road to the Super Bowl, but one team was “supposed” to be here and it wasn’t the Bengals.
The Matchup: Los Angeles enters the game as the favorites but it’s early and the line is going to move a lot. The ESPN power index has the Rams at 66% but the Bengals are used to being underdogs and now all the pressure is on LA to perform in front of the world in their state-of-the-art facility.
Both of these teams are obviously good on both sides of the ball, that’s why they are playing for the crown. The Rams are a “win now” team that had championship pedigree and added the veteran star power to put them over the top. The Bengals are the new kids on the block, filled with a special kind of swagger and the skill to back it up. However, despite the differences in their DNA, these two teams are eerily similar.
We are looking at the #9 (LAR) and the #13 (CIN) offenses in the league overall, but they were only separated by 180-total yards on the season. The passing game slightly favors the Rams (5th), but the Bengals weren’t far behind (7th), and the ground game favors Cincy (23rd) over LA (25th). If you focus in a bit closer, their yards-per-completion are very close (12.5 to 12.1) and their yards-per-carry are identical (4.0). Even their first down and penalty numbers are separated by four or less. Los Angeles is a little more efficient on 3rd down (by 4.3%), but their advantage in the red zone isn’t significant (0.4%) and Cincy is better on 4th down (by 13.6%). Just to drive the point home, both teams scored the exact same number of points-per-game (27.1) which was tied for 7th. Even if you line up Stafford and Burrow’s seasons, they are pretty darn close. If you’re looking for a significant edge offensively, good luck.
The picture doesn’t get a whole lot clearer on defense either. These teams finished the season 17th (LAR) and 18th (CIN) in total defense. They were 15th and 17th, respectively in scoring defense but it was only a 0.3-PPG difference. Passing D? 22nd and 26th. Versus the rush? 6th and 5th? 3rd down rate against? 21st and 22nd? Once again, the similarities are staggering but I’d still give a slight defensive edge to the Rams because they are nearly 10% defensively in the red zone and they have the edge in sacks. It’s not a massive statistical advantage when it comes to bringing down the QB but Joe Burrow was the 2nd-most sacked QB during the season and is the most-sacked in the playoffs. There’s a reason this is a talking-point leading into the game.
Despite struggling in pass protection, Cincy is still averaging about 250-YPG passing with a QB rating of 96.2 (4th highest in the playoffs). They also survived a game where burrow got sacked 9 times in Tennessee and found a way to win, so don’t think the sack total is going to be the bottom line. However, keeping Aaron Donald from wrecking the game is going to be a big key in this game. Plus, the Rams are averaging just about 400-yard of offense during the playoffs whereas the Bengals are sitting at 337-yards/game, so the sack numbers will be an important piece in the down and distance narrative of the game. In particular, 3rd down sacks are going to be critical as they can snuff out a drive or turn TD opportunities into FG tries. Cincy has a fantastic rookie kicker in Evan McPherson, but I would be focused on getting the ball out of Burrow’s hands quickly on 3r-down passing situations.
Maybe more importantly, LA’s defense is giving up about 100-YPG less than Cincy. That stems from the Rams’ shutting down opponents’ rushing attack to the tune of only 54-YPG in the post-season. It’s going to be rough sledding for Joe Mixon, but he’s going to have to keep running hard even if the results aren’t there early because it’s a part of their formula for success. The same goes for Samaje Perine who gets a fair amount of work as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Inversely, the Bengals are giving up 127.3-YPG on the ground during the playoffs and you know the Rams are more than willing to test those waters.
Los Angeles isn’t quite breaking 100-YPG rushing in the playoffs, but they are knocking on the door (94.3-YPG) and have done a slightly better job with it than the Bengals (88.0). However, Cam Akers is nursing a shoulder injury which could end up being a big factor in his effectiveness. Fortunately for LA, Sony Michel was brought in for depth help and functioned as the starting back for half the season with solid results. In his 8 starts, Michel averaged 83.5-YPG and 4.1-YPC with 3-TDs. Still, he wasn’t much of a receiving threat and we have seen what the Rams’ offense can look like with Akers bringing that to the table. The 2nd year back returning from injury did have some ball security issues, losing two fumbles in the Bucs game that turned out to be huge.
The turnover battle is usually a big indicator of outcome and the Bengals lead the playoffs in TO differential at +5, with 7-takeaways to only 2-giveaways. A lot of that has come from their underrated secondary that has at least one pick in every playoff game so far and their underrated pass rush that has come away with some strip sacks. Burrow threw a pick vs TEN and KC but he’s mostly pretty responsible with the football which give Cincy an advantage.
Four of the Rams five giveaways came in Tampa and those were all fumbles, but Stafford threw a pick in the NFC title game vs the 49ers and Jaquiski Tartt dropped another pretty easy one that could have swung that game. They also have 5-takeaways so they break even in the turnover department. The thing to take away from this comparison is that the Rams love to throw the ball in short-yardage 3rd down situations. The Cincinnati defense does a great job keying in on adjustments down the stretch, so a trap zone (like they utilized in KC and TEN) on one of those 3rd down situations could be pivotal.
I feel like we are way out to sea here so, if you’ve made it this far, thanks for sticking with me and I will wrap it up here shortly. With two weeks off between games, it’s tough to tell how much of the injury report is going to play a factor on either side. According to the Athletic, both teams have have are decently, especially in their secondaries while both teams have some injury concerns on offense. It’s tough to tell who will end up playing and being effective, but it looks like Tyler Higbee and C.J. Uzomah could both play for their respective teams after suffering MCL sprains.
Keys to Victory: If I am Bengals’ coach Zac Taylor, I want to test the Rams’ secondary early and often. Ja’Marr Chase is that kind of game-breaker at WR and if he gets a big one early, it will set the tone and change how the Rams want to defend him. Give him a shot anytime you get a 1-on-1, get him some screens and force the Rams to tackle, and see if you can get one deep in the 1st quarter. You’d think the Rams are going to dedicate a lot of help to Chase, so Cincy can use him as a distraction and get the ball to Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins who will both be crucial to the Bengals’ success. Mixon is going to have to stay the course too like I mentioned earlier. He is a good dual-threat back and his physical style can help set the tone, even if he’s not getting nig chunks early. Burrow has done everything right so far, so he just has to keep doing his thing.
Defensively, the secondary has their work cut our for them with OBJ and triple-crown winner Cooper Kupp. I don’t expect them to completely shut that duo down, but they will have to be opportunistic. If Higbee doesn’t play for the Rams or isn’t effective, disguised coverage front have worked really well for the Bengals so far and allows Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson to utilize their athleticism. It’s bend but don’t break and see if they can capitalize on some 3rd down tendencies.
On the other side of that coin, the Rams have been very balanced in play distribution throughout the playoffs but the Akers injury muddies the waters. They want to run the ball to set up play action and they will need to keep the defense honest. Kendall Blanton could be a big factor with Higbee’s injury as he’ll have to play a key role in that run game.
The Rams’ defense is loaded and seems like the biggest advantage for either team in this matchup. Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and Von Miller get a lot of attention, as they should, but nose tackle Greg Gaines has quietly been a massive key to the success of this defense. He wins his matchups a lot, is a good tackler, and has a high motor that allows him to stay on the field. Him just doing his thing will allow the stars to shine. Behind him, Troy Reeder is going to have a big role to play, especially if Uzomah plays for CIN. And, of course, Ramsey vs Chase is going to be the marquee matchup in this game. If Ramsey can handle that matchup alone, it will be huge.
The Verdict: I respect what the Bengals have been able to do as a franchise in such short period of time, but I have to favor the Rams. Keep in mind I have used this same logic the last two rounds and didn’t get any picks correct. Los Angeles was constructed with this goal in mind while tt just seems like Cincy has overachieved a bit to this point. I will not count them because they are battle-tested and have proved themselves capable of competing with anyone. I just see the Rams’ defense as the biggest deciding factor.
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Before we get out of here it’s also important to consider the Rams are playing this game at home. Yes, I know they tried to block 49ers fans from buying tickets because Rams fans don’t sell out the stadium, and you can rest assured Bengals fans will travel, but there’s more to being home than crowd noise. All the players get to sleep in their own beds, go through their routine like they would every week, and generally go about their lives as they normally would. It’s the little things that matter in big games and there is no game bigger.
Pick: Rams | ATS: Bengals +4 | O/U: Over 48.5 | Final: LAR 33 – 31 CIN
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