Week 8 in the NFL was a rough one for the favorites as six underdogs walked away with wins. The morning games were particularly rough on the picks but I did hit a number of unlikely covers to help right the ship. I’m still getting whomped on the over/under but I had a respectable in straight picks and against the spread. My brother and a friend wanted to hop in on picks this week so here are the results:
| Nick | Vs Spread | O/U | Christen | Vanger Vs Spread | Toast Vs Spread |
| Week Total | Week Total | Week Total | Week Total | Week Total | Week Total |
| 9-5 | 8-6 | 4-10 | 9-5 | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Previous Total | Previous Total | Previous Total | Previous Total | Previous Total | Previous Total |
| 74-30-1 | 59-45-2 | 22-30-3 | 62-42-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall |
| 83-35-1 | 67-51-2 | 26-40-3 | 71-47-1 | 6-8 | 6-8 |
The Steelers hold the throne and remained unbeaten with a comeback win over the Ravens, 28-24, mostly thanks to Lamar Jackson’s poor play and Baltimore’s one-dimensional approach. I said in the breakdown, we all know what the Ravens do and they did it masterfully to the tune of 265-yards rushing. However, I pointed to Jackson’s regression as a big problem in this game and his two picks opened the door to 14-points for a Pittsburgh team that hadn’t done much while his fumble in the 4th quarter all but closed the door on the Ravens. One last desperation heave went incomplete but even that drive didn’t look great. Dez Bryant can’t get on the field soon enough for BAL and they may want to make a move to try and get an unhappy Alshon Jeffrey from the Eags who’ve found new life in Travis Fulgham.
Kansas city treated the Jets like you’d expect in a 35-9 win. Andy Reid must have some kind of rollover plan with his play calls because Patrick Mahomes threw the ball 42 times for 400-yards and 5-TDs a week after a snowstorm in Dever had their offense locked up. There’s nothing like playing the Jets to get the engine warm. The Bills rode the momentum from their game vs New York and survived a close game vs the Patriots, 24-21, to take the torch in the AFC East. Buffalo still has a lot of work to do on both sides of the ball if they are to make any serious noise this postseason. The Cam Newton reclamation project isn’t going so well in New England and they are going to have to make a decision at QB very soon.
The 49ers ran into a buzzsaw of a Seahawks team was clearly still angry about blowing that 10-pt lead to Arizona last week. Sadly, San Francisco potentially lost and George Kittle and Jimmy G for the rest of the season in the process of losing 37-27 and subsequently traded linebacker Kwon Alexander to the Saints. Russell Wilson cleaned up those interceptions from the prior week and tossed 4-TDs as he continues to cook, but the Seattle defense continues to fall apart late in games. Niners’ backup QB Nick Mullens would throw for 238-yds and 2-TDs en route to 20-pts in the 4th quarter. I get that the Hawks took their foot off the gas when they got up 30-7, but they are going to need to close games out better.
In the biggest underdog beat of the weekend, Dalvin Cook made mincemeat of the Packers defense en route to more than 200-yards from scrimmage and 4-TDs. He accounted for 66% of the Vikes’ total yards and all of their TDs. While we all know Cook is a great player, it’s fair to say at this point that the Green Bay defense isn’t good. This is the second time we’ve seen the Packers stare down adversity and fold. This game was 28-14 for a long time in the second half and from what I was watching, it didn’t look like they were giving much of an effort. Credit to Minny for following the Bucs’ blueprint and not rolling over in a division game.
The other big underdog win saw Joe Burrow’s evolution continue at a solid rate, as he led the Bengals to an upset win over the Titans. I figured it would be close and picked Cincy to cover, but I didn’t think they’d dominate like that. Tennessee had more total yards and a higher per-play avg. but their defense has been poor all year long and they just didn’t play well enough on offense to make up for it this time.
It was cold, windy, and low scoring in Cleveland, but the Raiders came in as 3-poitn dogs and proved that they are serious about a playoff push with a big road win over the Browns, 16-6. It was sloppy out there, but Derek Carr found a way to actually throw a TD pass and that was the difference in the game. The Colts won again to stay in the contender conversation and assumed a share of the AFC South lead with their 41-21 win, but it’s the Lions’ defense that continues to stand in the way of their ability to win games. Maybe Detroit finds a way to snag one of the wildcard spots but it looks like it’s time to wrap things up on the Matthew Stafford era. I know the narrative is mostly favorable for Stafford’s career, but in 11 seasons he’s only had a winning record four times, has a sub-.500 career record at 72-83-1, and is 0-3 in the playoffs. His career stats may look good on paper but he’s not going to suddenly get better at this stage and it’s painfully obvious that he isn’t going to take the Lions to the next level. Moving on could stand to benefit both parties and there will be a number of teams looking for a quality QB next season.
It was Tua Tagovailoa’s starting debut that got the attention before Miami’s 28-17 upset win over the Rams and his 11/22 for 93-yards and a TD was fine, but it was really nothing to write home about. In fact, Miami’s offense actually looked much worse under Tua as they only mustered 145 total yards, punted every possession in the 2nd half, and didn’t score after the 2nd quarter. Sorry Fitz. It’s actually the Dolphins defense that deserves all the headlines. They dominated Rams’ QB Jared Goff who had 2 picks and 2 lost fumbles, one of which was returned for a TD and the other one set up a 1-yd TD run by Myles Gaskin. Miami’s special teams also returned a punt for a TD and that was enough for the D to hang on the rest of the way.
Denver completed a highly improbably comeback, 31-30 over the Chargers after trailing 24-3 in the 2nd half. I picked the Broncos for a reason, but admittedly it wasn’t looking good. Like I said in my breakdown, that altitude is no joke and the Chargers tend not to win at Mile High Stadium for a reason. Justin Herbert was feeling it too and a pick near the end of the 3rd quarter gave the Broncos enough life to start the 21-pt, 4th quarter avalanche. The Bolts’ defense was completely gassed down the stretch and a defensive PI flag on a 4th & 4 gave the Denver and Drew Lock the extra play to find KJ Hamler for the game-tying score with :00 on the clock. Brandon McManus put the extra point through and sealed the 1-pt win.
Despite not having Michael Thomas for an extended period and Emmanuel Sanders on the Covid-IR list, the Saints made it four wins in a row with a 26-23 overtime road victory over the Bears. I wasn’t high on Chicago and neither were the oddsmakers who had them as home underdogs, but I think the early season struggles have helped the Saints realize how precious and fleeting success in the NFL in and they are focused on getting Ws.
Through the first half of Sunday Night Football, it was looking like the Eagles might actually lose the the wounded and lowly Cowboys. They ended up winning 23-9 to take control of the NFC East but they are far from one of the league’s top teams. At this point, it’s honestly difficult to tell if Carson Wentz is so arrogant that he thinks himself infallable or if he’s incapable of learning from the mistakes he’s making over and over again. This week it was 4 turnovers (2-INTs and 2-fumbles) where he was either careless or reckless (or both) with the football. Maybe he was hanging out with Jared Goff last week. I know the Eags have been shorthanded most of the year and Wentz clearly views himself as the X-factor guy, but he’s actually making things more difficult on Philly with his play. He currently leads the league in INTs, INT%, and times sacked, is 30th in QB-rating, and 32nd among 33 qualified passers in completion percentage. They are lucky the division is so bad but they are currently on course for an ass whipping in the first round of the playoffs.
Closing things out on Monday Night Football, the Giants looked really good but were on the wrong side of at least five poorly officiated calls/non-calls in their 25-23 loss to the Buccaneers. A terrible pass interference call on an uncatchable pass 5-feet out the back of the end zone gave Tampa 1st & goal at the 1-yd line to set up their first TD. In the 4th-qtr, Cameron Brate caught a ball and was headed upfield when he lowered his head to initiate contact but it was the Giants’ Isaac Yiadom, who merely braced for contact, who was flagged for the personal foul call that set Tampa up with 1st & goal (again) in the 4th quarter. Mike Evans scored the go-ahead TD on the next play. New York’s defense was giving the Bucs problems all night and Tampa’s only 2-TDs both came after they were handed 1st & goal chances on highly dubious flags from the officials. Even the broadcast team’s rules analyst (John Parry?) was struggling to understand the field crew’s officiating.
Awful rules enforcement aside, the G-Men could have won this game if Daniel Jones could just not make the same mistakes repeatedly. His two interceptions both came when New York had the chance to build on their lead, one of which came with the Giants leading 17-15 in the 4th quarter. For all the bad throws Jones made, the late 4th-qtr toss to Golden Tate in the back of the endzone was a beauty. Sadly, in keeping with the theme for the night, the refs picked up a pass interference flag against the Bucs during NY’s 2-pt attempt to tie the game. The flag came from the official who had the best angle to see the contact, but he was overruled by the crew chief after a long conversation. When you’re a 1-6 team, it’s tough to get the benefit of the doubt, especially on bang-bang plays like that one, but I know a hose job when I see one, and the Giants got absolutely hosed by the officials in this game. Sorry Toast.
Week 9 gets underway on Thursday Night Football as the Packers look to rebound against a decimated 49ers team in Santa Clara. Green Bay will be light at running back thanks to Covid and this isn’t a layup for them. San Francisco smashed Green Bay both times they met last season. Wounded or not, the Niners can still run the ball and the Packers’ run defense looked like they were playing with nine guys on defense vs Minnesota. I wouldn’t count SF out o this game even though the Pack is probably favored by more than a TD.
The Steelers stay on top for the 3rd week in a row, while only three other teams in the top-10 picked up wins in Week 8. Here are the updated Sheist Power Rankings:
| 1. Steelers 7-0 (1=) |
| 2. Chiefs 7-1 (2=) |
| 3. Seahawks 6-1 (6⬆) |
| 4. Buccaneers 6-2 (7⬆) |
| 5. Bills 6-2 (8⬆) |
| 6. Ravens 5-2 (3⬇) |
| 7. Cardinals 5-2 (12⬆) |
| 8. Saints 5-2 (13⬆) |
| 9. Titans 5-2 (4⬇) |
| 10. Packers 5-2 (5⬇) |
| 11. Colts 5-2 (15⬆) |
| 12. Rams 5-3 (11⬇) |
| 13. Bears 5-3 (9⬇) |
| 14. Browns 5-3 (10⬇) |
| 15. 49ers 4-4 (14⬇) |
| 16. Dolphins 4-3 (16=) |
| 17. Raiders 4-3 (17=) |
| 18. Lions 3-4 (18=) |
| 19. Eagles 3-4-1 (20⬆) |
| 20. Broncos 3-4 (21⬆) |
| 21. Panthers 3-5 (21=) |
| 22. Vikings 2-5 (26⬆) |
| 23. Bengals 2-5-1 (27⬆) |
| 24. Chargers 2-5 (22⬇) |
| 25. Patriots 2-5 (23⬇) |
| 26. Washington 2-5 (24⬇) |
| 27. Falcons 2-6 (29⬆) |
| 28. Cowboys 2-6 (25⬇) |
| 29. Texans 1-6 (28⬇) |
| 30. Giants 1-7 (30=) |
| 31. Jaguars 1-6 (31=) |
| 32. Jets 0-8 (32=) |