I’m very thankful the Bills were able to get their first home win against the Patriots in seven years, 24-21, but that sure felt like a game they survived much more than a game they went out and won. Hey, wins are tough to come by and I’ll never turn down a W, especially over the hated Pats, and the 6-2 record with the division lead looks great. The saying is you learn more from a loss than you do from a win, but there is plenty to take away from this game as Buffalo moves forward.
Make no mistake about it, Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense have come crashing back down to Earth. It’s definitely not all on him but let’s take a look at the numbers first. Over the first four games of the season, Allen had thrown for 1,326-yds, 12-touchdowns, 1-interception, and ran for 3-TDs on 83-rush yards. Over the last four games, he’s thrown for 846-yards with 4-TDs, 5-INTs, and only 1 rushing TD on 144-rush yards. Looking at it all, his total yardage output is down 30%, TD production is down 66% while his INT frequency was up 500%. On the bright side, he’s been sacked less, fumbled less, and been a more opportunistic runner over the last month. Think about this, into the 4th quarter of Sunday’s clash with New England, Allen hadn’t scored a TD of any kind for 7 straight quarters. That’s especially alarming since four of those quarters were against the 0-8 Jets who just got blasted by the Chiefs, 35-9. As I mentioned, it’s not all Josh’s fault but he is the centerpiece of the offense and it’s struggling.
When the Titans had that extra time to prep for their Week 5 matchup, they put together the blueprint on how to fluster the Buffalo offense and the Bills might not see man coverage the rest of the season. However, one way to rectify that is to run the football effectively and it was nice to see their commitment to establishing a ground attack on Sunday. New England is 27th vs the run so, if Buffalo was going to get some confidence with the ground attack, this was the game to do it. Neither Zack Moss nor Devin Singletary broke 100-yards rushing, but they both topped the 80-yd mark (en route to 190 team rushing yards) and Moss cashed in a pair of TDs. They split the carries evenly with 14 each and the number I liked the most was the yards-per-carry which was over 5.8 for both backs. Allen chipped in 10 carries for 23-yds, but his rushing score broke that 7-quarter scoreless streak and surely helped in the confidence department. As the run game becomes more consistent, the passing game will open back up and Allen just has to find where defenses are cheating and take advantage.
Even though the Bills found success running the football, their run defense continues to struggle. They couldn’t slow the Pats’ at all during the second half and it was looking like New England was well on their way to at least tying the game when Cam Newton fumbled to seal it for Buffalo. Pats’ rookie Damien Harris posted 102-yds on 16-carries and Newton added 54-yds on 9-car and both scored TDs averaging more than 6-yds/carry. The Bills are currently 26th in run defense, giving up 134-yds/game, and the 11-TDs given up on the ground are tied for 2nd most. It continues to be a huge area of concern for a team thought to have one of the best defensive lines heading into the 2020 season. Unfortunately, teams don’t tend to suddenly start stuffing the run halfway through the season. The Bills’ defense has been predicated on the strength of their secondary but, if Leslie Frazier doesn’t want to dedicate resources to stopping the run, the pass defense is going to have to be better than 24th. A good game against the Jets helped bolster the sack numbers, but BUF has the 10th highest QB-rating against. I’m not calling for Frazier’s job or anything like that, but the basic 4-man front isn’t producing so it would be nice to see some more complex defensive looks and tactics.
Jordan Poyer had himself a game, recording 11-solo tackles and a QB-hit. He’s long been underrated around the league so it was nice to see him excel on this stage. Buffalo’s pass defense did mostly fine against Newton, but I’ve been highlighting Cam’s poor QB play for most of the season, so it wasn’t a surprise to see him go 15/25. Shutting down a QB who had zero passing TDs and 5-INTs in two games coming in isn’t particularly impressive and this was actually Cam’s best game of the last month. However, this Buffalo secondary hasn’t been fully healthy and together for much of the season and I expect them to start to gel over the second half of the season.
Stefon Diggs continued to prove that he’s one of the elite receivers in the league, posting 6-catches for 92-yds. He’s currently 2nd in total receiving yards to DeAndre Hopkins and 3rd in receptions behind D-Hop and Alvin Kamara, both of whom have played one fewer game, but Diggs is 7th best in yards/game (87) and receptions/game (6.8). He even leads the league in targets but his catch percentage is much lower than I’d like to see at 68%. He has gotten his hands on some balls that he maybe could have caught, but he can’t catch everything and Allen is forcing throws to him in tight coverage which accounts for a large % of those non-catches. The Bills’ offense is still trying to find its sweet spot, and the run game can open up some play-action down the field, but it’ll probably be somewhere in the 27-35 pass attempts range with Diggs getting about 30% of the target share. It’s still a learning process, but look out if they get things humming again.
Performance Grade: C+
Buffalo is going to need every shred of defense they can muster when they welcome Russell Wilson and his 26-TD passes to town next week in a battle of division leaders. The Seahawks have the #3 passing attack and the #1 scoring offense in football, while the #12 rushing attack isn’t too shabby either. Fortunately, the Hawk’s defense has given up the most passing yards in the NFL (358-yds/game). Their run defense is still pretty solid, ranking 8th (102-yds/game), so Allen, Diggs, Smoke, Beasley, and Davis need to be ready for a firefight. This is going to be a rough one for me. I was a huge fan of Marshawn Lynch during his Buffalo days and followed him to Seattle, so I’ve been a fan of the Hawks ever since but my heart is definitely with the Bills on this one. Thankfully, it only happens once every four years.