I knew I should have listened to my gut on the Thursday Night Game. I spent time researching and laying out all the reasons why Atlanta had a good chance to beat Carolina then I let my stupid brain take over and pick the Panthers to win at home. Lesson learned. In a weird way, it’s nice to see that the Falcons haven’t quit on this season. At 2-6, they only need to go 6-2 on the way out to be in the wildcard conversation. Didn’t think I’d be saying this in 2020, but Go Falcons!? Anyhow, on to the rest of the Week 8 games.
(1-5)Minnesota Vikings at (5-1)Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 54.5)
Breakdown: We already saw how this matchup played out in Week 1 but a few things have changed this time around. Green Bay will be without Aaron Jones for this game but they’ve got a solid run game regardless. Minny looks to be getting Dalvin Cook back and Justin Jefferson has emerged as a legitimate #2 receiver. The Vikings have had one of the toughest schedules so far and if not for a couple of 1-point losses, they’d be 3-3 right now so their record isn’t indicative of where they really are. On the other hand, of all the teams that are 5-2 or better, the Packers have had the 2nd weakest schedule. They’ve only played two teams with winning records and one of those was an ass whooping at the hands of the Buccaneers. The Vikes have had the bye week to prepare and if they can fluster Aaron Rodgers early, they could steal this one. However, trading Yannick Ngakoue to the Ravens won’t make that easier and they did get smoked by a winless Falcons team before the break. GB should get it done.
Pick: Packers
Vs Spread: Vikings
Over/Under: Under 54.5
(5-1)Tennessee Titans at (1-5-1)Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5, 54.5)
Breakdown: The Titans took their first L of the season but almost came back to force overtime against the unbeaten Steelers, so they could very well be undefeated right now. Cincy keeps getting in firefights and they keep coming up just short, but Joe Burrow is getting better every week. Both of these teams bring bottom-10 defenses to the party, both teams can score, and both teams have played some very close games. If we eliminate the one blow out game for both, the Bengals’ avg. margin of defeat is 3.75-points and Tennessee’s avg. margin of victory is only 3-points, so I’m tempted to think this one is going to be fairly close too. I don’t see Cincy having an answer for Derrick Henry, especially after trading Carlos Dunlap to the Seahawks, but I think they’ll be in this game.
Pick: Titans
Vs Spread: Bengals
Over/Under: Over 54.5
(0-7)New York Jets at (6-1)Kansas City Chefs (-19.5, 48)
Breakdown: There’s a reason the spread in this game is 20-points. The Jets are not good and they are banged up while the Chiefs are good and got better with the addition of Le’Veon Bell. It’s not so much a matter of if the Chiefs win, but by how much. New York has lost by 20-pts three times this season, and by double digits 6-of-7 times. So, even though the spread is monstrous, the Chiefs are the smart money to cover. However, Kansas City losing this game would be so 2020.
Pick: Chiefs
Vs Spread: Chiefs
Over/Under: Under 48
(4-2)Indianapolis Colts at (3-3)Detroit Lions (+2.5, 50)
Breakdown: I’m not convinced the Colts are actually good. Their one quality win is over the Bears, but Indy’s generally had a weak schedule. Their combined opponent win percentage is only 32%, while Detroit’s is markedly better at 53%. So, the Lions 3-3 record is more credible than the Colts’ 4-2 in my book. They are very close in points-per-game scored while Indy gives up significantly fewer but, again, the quality of competition was weaker. I’m feeling the Lions on this one and I didn’t listen to my gut in the Atlanta/Carolina game on Thursday, so I’m going to do it this time.
Pick: Lions
Vs Spread: Lions
Over/Under: Under 50
(6-0)Pittsburgh Steelers at (5-1)Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 46.5)
Breakdown: This is hands down the game of the week and should be getting flexed into the Sunday Night Football spotlight, rather than Eagles/Cowboys. This isn’t the Ravens/Steelers rivalry from the 2010s but it’s still heated. Alas, it’s not to be. These teams are about as evenly matchedas you can get. Pittsburgh has the 6th ranked scoring offense while Baltimore has the 8th and BAL has the #1 scoring defense while PIT comes in at 6th. Even their combined opponents win percentage is equal at 40%, the best quality win goes to Pittsburgh (over TEN).
We all know what they Ravens do best, leading the league in rushing, but I haven’t seen significant 3rd-year evolution from Lamar Jackson. In fact, the evidence suggests that he has regressed. Jackson is 26th in completion percentage, 27th in passing yards, 21st in passing TDs, he’s taken the 9th most sacks, and his QB rating and total QBR are both down from last season. That doesn’t bode well against a Steelers team that’s found new big-play capability in the hands of Chase Claypool and doesn’t give up a lot of sacks. Staying unbeaten is hard in the NFL but the Ravens as 3.5-pt favorites seems wrong here. They can win if they score early and stay ahead, but it’ll be exceedingly difficult if they fall behind.
Pick: Steelers
Vs Spread: Steelers
Over/Under: Over 46.5
(5-2)Los Angeles Rams at (3-3)Miami Dolphins (+3.5, 46)
Breakdown: Tua Tagovailoa starts his first game as the Fins welcome the Rams to Miami. I know a lot of people are high on this kid and rightfully so, but he’s still a rookie QB in the NFL and he still hasn’t played any meaningful pro-football and had devastating hip injury in Nov. of 2019. Plus he’s replacing a guy in Ryan Fitzpatrick who had engineered back-to-back blowout wins and had the offense humming, so who knows how that has played out in the locker room. The Rams, on the other hand, are a proven commodity and have the record to show for it. They have the kind of scheme that travels well, averaging nearly 30-pts/game on the road, and there’s potential rain in the forecast which leans more in the Rams’ favor. Seeing Aaron Donald up close and personal is tough enough on veteran QBs and I can only imagine he’ll be there to welcome Tua with open arms.
Pick: Rams
Vs Spread: Rams
Over/Under: Over 46
(2-4)New England Patriots at (5-2)Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 44)
Breakdown: It’s official. After two decades, the Patriots are bad. Cam Newton continues to play poorly and they’ll be without Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry on an offense that’s been struggling regardless. There are like a dozen other guys that are questionable as too, so who really knows who’s going to suit up. The Bills didn’t look like the team that took the league by storm in the first month of the season, but the defense did get a confidence boost game against the Jets last week. Buffalo seems to be the better team everywhere and this is their chance to finally wrest control of the AFC east away from New England. It’s a passing of the torch game and I have to expect (hope) the Bills to be ready for it at home.
Pick: Bills
Vs Spread: Bills
Over/Under: Under 44
(3-3)Las Vegas Raiders at (5-2)Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 54)
Breakdown: The Raiders have had one of, if not, the toughest schedules so far and it doesn’t exactly get easier taking on a Browns team that’s only lost to the elite of the AFC. The loss of Odell Beckham Jr. will certainly change the approach for both teams but this is likely to be a shootout regardless. Both teams are bottom-5 in scoring defense and are basically even at 10th in scoring offense. Cleveland has been surprisingly stingy against the run but equally as bad against the pass, so I figure Derek Carr probably has a good game. Austin Hooper is out too so I doubt Baker Mayfield can duplicate last week’s performance, even against the Raiders 28th ranked pass defense. I’ll bank on Carr to make fewer mistakes.
Pick: Raiders
Vs Spread: Raider
Over/Under: Over 54
(2-4)Los Angeles Chargers at (2-4)Denver Broncos (+3, 45)
Breakdown: Who has the better 2-4 record? My gut says Chargers but the strength of schedule leans heavily in favor of the Broncos 62% to 48%. LA almost beat the Chiefs, the Bucs, and the Saints, but Denver almost beat the Titans and the Steelers. The altitude at Mile High Stadium is no joke. Since 2014, the Chargers are 1-5 on the road in Denver and only 3-9 overall during the same span. The Bolts seem to be the more talented team but this is Justin Herbert’s first time in the thin air and the Broncos are content to utilize their ground game to the fullest extent possible and play a field goal game.
Pick: Broncos
Vs Spread: Broncos
Over/Under: Under 45
(4-2)New Orleans Saints at (5-2)Chicago Bears (+4, 44)
Breakdown: The Bears didn’t look good at all last week getting dominated by the Rams while the Saints managed to do what veteran teams do and get situational Ws over sub-par competition. New Orleans will be without Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders again but they still have the best player on the field in Alvin Kamara. The Bears could be without Khalil Mack who is still nursing back problems but looks like Allen Robinson will play. Nick Foles continues to have a different approach to the offense than head coach Matt Nagy, but they don’t score much regardless. NO has shown a more diverse playbook and the ability to score even when shorthanded. Even if the CHI defense holds the Saints in check, it may not be enough. It’s going to be a cold one, so I expect the NO ground game to be a big factor.
Pick: Saints
Vs Spread: Saints
Over/Under: Under 44
(4-3)San Francisco 49ers at (5-1)Seattle Seahawks (-3, 54)
Breakdown: Seattle should be 6-0, but they showed that a couple of key mistakes can change things in a hurry, blowing a 10-pt, 4th quarter lead to the Cardinals. The 49ers have slowly started to get healthy but Raheem Mostert is back on IR and he’s a game changer for that offense but Tevin Coleman will supposedly play. They’ll be without wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Richie James, plus safety Jaquiski Tart. Seattle is less beat up in key positions and you know they are kicking themselves for losing that last one. Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde may not play much or at all, but this is a team built around the pass now anyway. Plus, they just added veteran pass rusher and 2x Pro Bowler Carlos Dunlap in a trade with the Bengals. The Seahawks’ run defense is good for 8th best but the Niners’ pass defense is 4th, so this should be an interesting clash of styles.
Pick: Seahwaks
Vs Spread: Seahawks
Over/Under: Under 54
(2-5)Dallas Cowboys at (2-4-1)Philadelphia Eagles (-9,43)
Breakdown: The Cowboys are basically done and the Eagles are starting to play better. Even with all their injuries, Philly is in a great position to take control of the horrid NFC East and put the Boys to bed for the season. Ben DiNucci will probably get the start with Andy Dalton stll shaking out the cobwebs from that massive hit to the head he took against Washington. Fly Eagles Fly. Too bad this is Sunday Night Football.
Pick: Eagles
Vs Spread: Eagles
Over/Under: Over 43
(5-2)Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (1-6)New York Giants (+10.5, 47)
Breakdown: What a terrible matchup to close out the week. The Giants are a little better than their record suggests and the defense is actually fairly good, all things considered. What does it matter in this matchup though? Not much. The Bucs are heavy favorites for a number of reason. Even with Chris Godwin out yet again, things may be even worse with Antonio Brown now in the fold for Tampa. This has all the makings of a smashing. The Bucs defense is 1st vs the run and 10th vs the pass while their offense is 3rd in scoring. You do the math.
Pick: Bucs
Vs Spread: Bucs
Over/Under: Under 47
My brother and a friend wanted to get in on the picks, so we’ve got an updated chart:
| Nick | Vs Spread | Over/Under | Christen | Vanger | Toast |
| Carolina | Carolina -2.5 | Under 52 | Falcons | Carolina -1 | Carolina -1 |
| Packers | Vikings +6.5 | Over 54.5 | Packers | Packers -7 | Packers -7 |
| Titans | Bengals +5.5 | Over 54.5 | Bengals | Titans -5.5 | Titans -5.5 |
| Chiefs | Chiefs -19.5 | Under 48 | Chiefs | Chiefs -19.5 | Chiefs -19.5 |
| Lions | Lions +2.5 | Under 50 | Colts | Colts -2.5 | Lions +2.5 |
| Steelers | Steelers +4 | Over 46.5 | Ravens | Steelers +4 | Steelers +4 |
| Rams | Rams -3.5 | Over 46 | Rams | Fins +3.5 | Dolphins +3.5 |
| Bills | Bills -4 | Under 44 | Bills | Bills -4 | Bills -4 |
| Raiders | Raiders +3 | Over 54 | Browns | Raiders +3 | Raiders +3 |
| Broncos | Broncos +3 | Under 45 | Broncos | Chargers -3 | Chargers -3 |
| Saints | Saints -4 | Under 44 | Bears | Saints -4 | Saints -4 |
| Seahawks | Seahawks -3 | Under 54 | Seahawks | Niners +3 | Hawks -3 |
| Eagles | Eagles -9 | Over 43 | Eagles | Eagles -9 | Eagles -9 |
| Bucs | Bucs -10.5 | Under 47 | Bucs | Bucs -10.5 | Bucs -10.5 |