I got busy and barely managed to find time to record the show and get my picks together, so I am going to keep this as short and sweet as possible. However, the audio version of this is always available.
Before the Buccaneers played the Panthers last week, I said if Tampa loses that game then they officially suck. Well, they lost that game emphatically but I still didn’t listen and found a way to convince myself that they were going to beat the Ravens on Thursday. Well, that didn’t happen either as they lost at home 27-22 and killed my Thursday Night Football streak once again.
In my preview, I said the Bucs needed to get Leonard Fournette more involved again and on their first drive of the game, he had 5 carries for 14 yards and a touchdown. That helped Tampa go up 10-3 in the 1st quarter but then they just squatted. Fournette only had 4 carries for 10 yards the entire rest of the game and only 3 catches for 34 yards, keep in mind he was leading the team in receptions heading in.
I have no clue what Tampa is doing. It’s like they forgot he was on the team after the 1st quarter. This is a team that has had a lot of success with the pieces they have in place so it’s difficult to think they suddenly aren’t good. The only reasonable conclusion I can think of is that they were trying to figure things out while they were in control of the game, but they lost sight of winning. They were able to hold the Ravens to 3-points in the first half but wasted a ton of opportunities, closing out the first half with 3 straight punts.
It took a while for the Ravens to figure out that they needed to go spread against a banged-up Bucs’ secondary and they figured it out on their last drive of the first half but had a long FG blocked. Once they came out of the tunnel in the 2nd half, there was no looking back. While the Bucs spun their wheels, the Ravens started putting up TDs.
Credit to Greg Roman, they reversed their ideology from the first half, going to more receiver-oriented formations and compromising a depleted TB defense. That also helped the RBs and they wound up with 231 yards rushing as a team after Jackson had 31 passes in the first half.
Football is a game of two halves and the Ravens showed up to play both of them and leave Tampa with a W. It’s tough to say exactly what the Bucs were doing, but winning the game didn’t seem to be a huge priority for them.
(+115) DEN Broncos 2-5 @ (-135) JAX Jaguars 2-5 (-2, O/U 40.5)
We are “treated” to another London game, as the no-luck Broncos take on the equally no-luck Jaguars at Wimbley Stadium. Jacksonville has cooled off after a hot start, but they have still managed to score points and be competitive. That’s more than I can say for Denver. Apparently, Russell Wilson is ready to return from a hamstring tear thanks to doing calisthenics on the flight. The trip across the pond is a yearly thing for the Jags and even though it will be weird not seeing James Robinson out there, JAX is in a better position to win. The spread came down a half-point if that says anything, but these teams are 2-5 so I’ll be sleeping in.
Pick: JAX | ATS: JAX -2 | O/U: Under 40.5
(+160) AZ Cardinals 3-4 @ (-185) MIN Vikings 5-1 (-3.5, O/U 48.5)
The Vikings are in a great spot at 5-1, coming off their bye week. The only issue is AZ got Deandre Hopkins back, a win, and some much-needed confidence. They are dealing with key injuries along the offensive line and RB position that Minnesota should be able to key in on better with the extra prep week.
Pick: MIN | ATS: AZ +3.5 | O/U: Over 48.5
(+175) CAR Panthers 2-5 @ (-210) ATL Falcons 3-4 (-4, O/U 41)
I bet Carolina is feeling great after knocking off the Bucs last week, but that was the exception more than the rule. The Falcons have been the better team all season and can seize 1st place in the NFC South with a win. This is a division battle so, still important but ATL gets it done.
Pick: ATL | ATS: ATL -4 | O/U: Over 41
(+345) CHI Bears 3-4 @ (-470) DAL Cowboys 5-2 (-10, O/U 42.5)
The Bears finally looked like they figured out some of the issues with their offense in a big win over the Patriots, but they’ll face a stiffer test in the Cowboys’ defense. Justin Fields can make you pay with his legs and Dallas is a little banged up, but it shouldn’t prevent them from winning. I like the Boys in a close one
Pick: DAL | ATS: CHI +10 | O/U: Over 42.5
(-120) LV Raiders 2-4 @ (EVEN) NO Saints 2-5 (+1.5, O/U 49.5)
It is Josh Jacobs season in Las Vegas and the Saints’ run defense hasn’t been good. That’s a path to victory for the Raiders, especially with Adams and Waller both dealing with injuries. New Orleans is still without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, both TEs are questionable, so it’s pretty much Chirs Olave and Alvin Kamara. They are good and I think they can probably hang around but Dalton and the backups haven’t proved to be a winning formula yet.
Pick: LVR | ATS: LVR -1.5 | O/U: Over 49.5
(-185) MIA Dolphins 4-3 @ (+160) DET Lions 1-5 (+3.5, O/U 51.5)
The Lions are very chewed up, but they should have their top offensive weapon back in D’Andre Swift. The injuries overall will probably be too much for DET as Tua came back and led Miami to a win over the Steelers last week and they will have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at full strength. This could have been a great game if both teams were at 100%.
Pick: MIA | ATS: MIA -3.5 | O/U: Under 51.5
(-140) NE Patriots 3-4 @ (+120) NY Jets (+2.5, O/U 40)
The Pats have owned the Jets to the tune of 12-straight wins and after getting embarrassed by the Bears on national TV, Bill Belichick is going to go all out to win this one. With a streak like this, the Jets are definitely due by Zach Wilson has never played particularly well against the Pats. With Breece Hall going down for the season, and James Robinson coming to town, I think the Jets are going to have to adjust a bit and not in time.
Pick: NE | ATS: NE -2.5 | O/U: Over 40
(+390) PIT Steelers 2-5 @ (-550) PHI Eagles 6-0 (-10.5, O/U 43)
Philly is coming off their bye week and coming back healthy to take on a Steelers squad that is beaten up. Kenny Pickett didn’t play well against the Fins last week, and it would be shocking if he somehow had a big leap against an even better defense. Eags should roll.
Pick: PHI | ATS: PHI -10.5 | O/U: Under 42.5
(-145) TEN Titans 4-2 @ (+125) HOU Texans 1-4-1 (EVEN, O/U 39)
The Titans don’t even strike me as good, but they are 4-2 and easily the best team in that division. Houston has stayed bad. However, Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out for this game and the spread swung to an even game. Expect a very heavy dose of Derrick Henry as Malik Willis gets his first start. If there was ever a game the Texans could steal, this would be it but they give up so much ground yardage it’s going to be tough.
Pick: TEN | ATS: TEN | O/U: Over 39
(+135) NY Giants 5-1 @ (-160) SEA Seahawks 4-3 (-3, O/U 44.5)
The Giants have got to lose one sooner or later and coming from behind every week has to get exhausting. Seattle’s dinged up at their top 2 WR spots with Metcalf and Tyler Lockett dealing with injuries, so that could have a big impact. Either way it’s going to be a showcase of two of the best young RBs in the league right now with Saquon Barkley battling with Kenneth Walker III.
Pick: SEA | ATS: SEA -3 | O/U: Over 44.5
(-115) SF 49ers 3-4 @ (-105) LA Rams 3-3 (EVEN, O/U 42)
The Niners head into this game coming off back-to-back, double-digit losses and are missing several key pieces including Deebo Samuel, but it’s the Dre Greenlaw and Arik Armstead injuries that are more concerning. The Rams have lost 7 straight regular season games to SF but, coming out of their bye, they’ve had a few weeks to strategize over the Niners’ losses.
Pick: LAR | ATS: RAMS | O/U: Over 42
(+130) WSH Commanders @ (-150) IND Colts (-3, O/U 39.5)
Washington is starting to get healthy on defense and that’s going to be an issue for a Colts team that gives up a lot of sacks. They did Matt Ryan dirty too because his struggles are a byproduct of that. Regardless, it’s the kid Sam Ehlinger under center and not veteran Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles…go figure.
Pick: WSH | ATS: WSH +3| O/U: Under 39.5
(+360) GB Packers 3-4 @ (-500) BUF Bills (-11, O/U 47)
Nothing I have seen from the Packers this entire season has me concerned. I understand there is some healthy fear of Aaron Rodgers, but he hasn’t shown it this season and the Bills are coming out of their bye week having watched two straight weeks of Packers losses. Bills by a Billion.
Pick: BUF | ATS: BUF -11 | O/U: Under 47
(-170) CIN Bengals 4-3 @ (+145) CLE Browns 2-5 (+3, O/U 45)
The Ja’Marr Chase injury is bad news for Cincy, but they still have some effective weaponry. We know who the Browns are and what they want to do, and they are good at it. I expect Nick Chubb to have a big day but RG Wyatt Teller is out and so are TE David Njoku and CB Denzel Ward. Cincy is just the better team and starting to find their groove with a healthy Joe Burrow. Even sans Chase, they can edge this one out.
Pick: CIN | ATS: CIN -3 | O/U: Under 45
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