NFL Week 6: Picks & Predictions

The Bucs went into Philadelphia and survived a late push by the Eagles to win it 28-22. Things went mostly as I expected with the Eags covering and I improved to 6-0 on Thursday night games and 5-1 against the spread. I just missed the over/under when the Eagles’ defense couldn’t force the field goal attempt at the end of the game and I wasn’t too far off on the final score (30-24).

There isn’t much to take away from this game that I didn’t already know. The Bucs are the better team on both sides of the ball and put it in cruise control when they made it 28-7 in the 3rd quarter. They were doing pretty much whatever they wanted up to that point in the game, dominating mostly with Leonard Fournette and Antonio Brown. Bucs’ cornerback Richard Sherman, who was brought in to provide relief to a beat-up secondary, went down with a hamstring injury and could potentially miss a few games now. So, we could see the defense struggle as they did in the second half of this one.

Maybe struggle is too strong of a word when they only gave up 15-points in reality, but they kinda let Philly hang around and it almost came back to bite them. Almost. The Eagles’ offense is having major issues. Their line isn’t very good, especially missing Lane Johnson, and their playcalling is very predictable. As a result, they can’t establish the run and barely even give their backs a chance. Miles Sanders, who has been their best offensive player the last two seasons, has been mostly a non-factor this season. Even though Jalen Hurts is a dynamic player who has all the QB skills you could want, he went a paltry 12/26 passing for 115-yards with 1-TD and 1-INT. He did run for 44-yards and 2-TDs and that seems to be the only thing the offense does well.

Tampa Bay improved to 5-1 and has firm control of the NFC South while Philly fell to 2-4 and can only look up at the rest of the conference. The one upside for the Eagles is that they’ll have a full 10 days to figure something out before they travel to Vegas. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the rest of the games for Week 6.

(-165) Dolphins at (+140) Jaguars – London (+3, o/u 47)

We are treated to another London game between a couple of bad teams. Miami and Jacksonville have a combined record of 1-11 so we’re really in for a treat. Rumor has it that Tua Tagovailoa will be back under center for the Dolphins but they’ll be without their top WR DeVante Parker and their top CB Xavien Howard. Linebacker Myles Jack and DT Rashaad Coward won’t play in this one either, but the Fins have more of their key talent with questionable tags. The Jags have played in the London game more than any other franchise (this will be their 8th time), so at least some of them know what to expect. They have also been getting better, incrementally, each week as they try to work towards their first win while the Fins are trying to figure out how their season imploded so quickly.

Pick: Jags | Vs Spread: Jags +3 | Under: 47

(-180) Bengals at (+155) Lions (+3.5, o/u 47)

The (3-2) Bengals are coming off a close loss to the Packers, but that game let them know that they can compete with teams at the top of the food chain. They are heading to Detroit a little beat up with RB Joe Mixon and starting RG Jackson Carman both questionable and RB Samaje Perine out, but QB Joe Burrow looks ready to roll following concerns after some throat contusion. The Lions were already decimated by injury and now have some key guys nursing injuries including their two top RBs D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, their ace TE T.J. Hockenson, and OLB Trey Flowers all listed as questionable. I’m honestly surprised the line was set this close and I’m not crazy enough to take two 0-5 teams to win in the same week.

Pick: Bengals | Vs Spread: Bengals -3.5 | Under: 47

(-245) Packers at (+205) Bears (+6, o/u 44)

Somehow, the Bears find themselves sitting at 3-2 heading into a massive division game against the (4-1) Packers. First place in the NFC North is on the line, but it’s going to be a very tall order for this Chicago team. Their defense has been solid enough to get them to this position but three of their best defensive players are questionable: LDE Akiem Hicks, WLB Khalil Mack, and FS Eddie Jackson. Their #1 RB, David Montgomery was already on IR and now Damien Williams is out for this one as well, and their #1 WR Allen Robinson is questionable too. Green Bay is mostly healthy with LT Elgton Jenkins still listed as questionable in David Bakhtiari’s absence and CB Kevin King out. However, it’s not like the Bears throw the ball that well anyhow. Aaron Rodgers has been the Packers’ starting QB in this rivalry since 2008 and they’re 23-5 against the Bears since, including sweeps the last two seasons.

Pick: Packers | Vs Spread: Packers -6 | Under: 44

(+335) Texans at (-455) Colts (-10, o/u 43.5)

After an epic implosion on Monday Night Football in Week 5, the Colts look to pick up the pieces and move forward. At 1-4, their season isn’t over but they have to start by beating the (1-4) Texans. Houston caught New England by surprise last week and almost snuck out the W, but their defense couldn’t hold up down the stretch. I do believe the Colts are better than the Pats and they’re at home, but 10-points is a huge spread for a team that just violently choked on national TV. Indy is still without RT Braden Smith but it seems like they’ve figured the run game out. Their kicker is out after playing poorly through injury in Week 5, and CB Xavier Rhodes is questionable but they’re mostly ok. Davis Mills has continued to improve for HOU but WR Danny Amendola and C Justin Britt are dealing with injuries and Laremy Tunsil is still out at LT. It’s a must-win for the Colts.

Pick: Colts | Vs Spread: Texans +10 | Over: 43.5

(-310) Chiefs at (+255) Washington (+7, o/u 54.5)

Watching the Chiefs stumble has been one of the greatest joys of the young 2021 season, but I have no doubts that they are still one of the better teams in the AFC. None of their losses are terrible (Bills, Browns, Chargers) but there’s no question that they need to start playing better if they want to be in the conversation come playoff time. Their defense has been abysmal and they’ll be without DT Chris Jones and CB Charvarius Ward once again, with LB Anthony Hitchens questionable. That should help the Washington offense but they are chewed up. Starting RG Brandon Scherff, RT Sam Cosmi, WRs Curtis Samuel and Cam Sims are out, and WR Terry McLaurin joined RB Antonio Gibson on the questionable list. If their defense wasn’t so bad, you’d hope they could maybe make it a game but it doesn’t seem headed in that direction. Washington just lost badly at home to the pitchy Saints (33-22) and the Chiefs will be desperate and angry here.

Pick: Chiefs | Vs Spread: Chiefs -7 | Over: 54.5

(+115) Chargers at (-135) Ravens (-2.5, o/u 51.5)

The Chargers find themselves in one of the best games, maybe the best, of the week as they head to Baltimore for a showdown between division leaders. Both squads are, somewhat surprisingly, 4-1 and jockeying for position in a crowded AFC. Both teams are coming off big 4th-quarter comebacks and Lamar Jackson is playing his best football right now, but they’ve also stumbled into some incredible. They deserve credit for putting themselves in an opportunity to capitalize but they’ve had some wild games. The Ravens WR corps hasn’t been at 100% yet this season and Sammy Watkins is out for this game, so is LT Ronnie Staley. Those could be big in what figures to be a high-scoring affair. The Bolts are mostly healthy but LB Drue Tranquill is out and WR Mike Williams is questionable after not practicing all week with a knee injury. Both teams are clearly good, but I like the Chargers’ quality of competition better and you might never see them at plus-money again this season.

Pick: Chargers | Vs Spread: Chargers +2.5 | Over: 51.5

(-480) Rams at (+350) Giants (+9.5, o/u 48.5)

The Giants have been ravaged by injury but, somehow, Daniel Jones got cleared from the league concussion protocol after he was drooling and stumbling on the field in Dallas last week after taking a shot to the head. They’ll still be without RB Saqoun Barkley and WR Kenny Golladay, with WRs Darius Slayton and Kadarius Toney questionable, but WR Sterling Shephard is back at least. The Rams defense hasn’t been the dominant group from a year ago but injuries to the Giants’ O-lineman LT Andrew Thomas and LG Ben Bredeson will be huge vulnerabilities. Shorthanded, it will be tough for the G-Men to keep pace and Danny Dimes may be less inclined to try and force the issue after last week’s scare. A 9.5-point spread is generous but seems appropriate here.

Pick: Rams | Vs Spread: Rams -9.5 | Under: 48.5

(-135) Vikings at (+115) Panthers (+2.5, o/u 46)

Christian McCaffrey won’t be making his return for the Panthers just yet as they welcome the hard-luck Vikings to town. Carolina will also be without LB Shaq Thompson and CB Stephon Gilmore won’t be available yet either, but they are mostly healthy. The Panthers have blown halftime leads in each of their last two games to fall to 3-2 after a 3-0 start, and they need to figure out what’s going on. Sam Darnold has fallen back into some bad habits. He’s thrown 5-INTs in those two Ls after only throwing one over the first three games and his TD output isn’t high enough to recover from those mistakes. He also saw his accuracy and average yards per attempt plummet in the home loss to the Eagles in Week 5. The Vikings’ Kirk Cousins has also come back down to Earth after a scorching start, throwing 2-TDs and 2-INTs in their last two compared to 8-TDs and 0-INTs over their first three, and Minnesota’s offense has understandably suffered. Part of that was probably RB Dalvin Cook’s absence and he’ll be back for this one. Michael Pierce is out at DT for the Vikes, but that’s it. I can see why they are favored on the road but it’s hard for me to trust either team.

Pick: Vikings | Vs Spread: Vikings +2.5 | Over: 46

(+150) Cardinals at (-175) Browns (-3.5, o/u 49.5)

I wouldn’t have thought it at the beginning of the season but this turned out to be a pretty important early-season clash for both teams. The Cardinals are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL at 5-0, but the 3-2 Browns are likely better than their record indicates. Both their losses are to good teams but they are dealing with a lot of injuries, namely RB Nick Chubb who is out. Kareem Hunt is there for a reason but he’s questionable too along with nine other players including key names like DEs Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett, T Jack Conklin, and CBs Denzel Ward & Greg Newsome II, plus LB Malcolm Smith is out. Arizona isn’t without their share of injuries either with starting C Rodney Hudson and pass rusher Chandler Jones out. Until further notice Arizona is on top, and the injuries for the Browns are concerning. It’s very surprising to see the Cards as plus money, but take what you can get.

Pick: Cardinals| Vs Spread: Cards +3.5 | Over: 49.5

(-180) Cowboys at (+155) Patriots (+3.5, o/u 50.5)

I’m not sure how or why the Cowboys are only 3.5-pt favorites heading into this game, but I’ll take it. Dallas looks like one of the best teams in football while New England doesn’t even have a winning record. Dorance Armstrong is out at DE for the Boys, but that’s nothing new. They are nursing some questionable designations to key players such as RB Ezekiel Elliot and CB Trevon Diggs but I expect those guys to play. Same goes for New England. Guard Shaq Mason and CB Shaun Wade are listed as out, and guys like CB Jalen Mills, RB Damien Harris, and my high school class mate K Nick Folk are all questionable. I’m sure the Pats’ defense will have a gameplan in place, but after struggling with the Texans I fail to see why the oddsmakers think this game will be close. Dallas should win comfortably.

Pick: Cowboys | Vs Spread: Cowboys -3.5 | Under: 50.5

(+170) Raiders at (-200) Broncos (-4, o/u 43.5)

The Raiders are dealing with a lot following the resignation of their head coach and they have to go on the road and play in one of the toughest places in the league. Plus they have lost back-to-back games and didn’t look good in either. Denver is in the same boat when it comes to records as they’ve lost two in a row after getting off to a 3-0 start as well. Neither team has anything major on the injury report, but Broncos’ RB Javonte Williams could be in for an increased workload with Melvin Gordon III questionable while Jonathan Hankins is questionable along the D-line for the Raiders. I like the Raiders strength of schedule better because they have at least beaten some solid teams. It has been easy to pick against Denver the last two weeks because their wins came against some of the worst teams in the league. That said, I’m still leaning towards Denver here due to all the off-the-field stuff going on in Vegas.

Pick: Broncos| Vs Spread: Broncos -4| Over: 43

(+185) Seahawks at (-225) Steelers (-5, o/u 43)

This had the makings of a much better game when it got put on the schedule and I don’t think most people would have expected either team to be 2-3 at this point, let alone both of them. Geno Smith steps into the starting role with Russell Wilson now on IR and the Pittsburgh defense could provide a rude welcome. Smith played well against the Rams’ defense but that unit hasn’t played up to their level this season either. Seattle’s O-line isn’t particularly strong and the Steelers’ defensive front is their best asset, so I expect Smith to be under fire. Maybe he comes in and plays at a level that elevates the team but, while I don’t want to, I have to favor the Steelers in this situation. Pittsburgh WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is out and so is DE Carlos Davis while RB Chirs Carson is on IR and TE Gerald Everett and RT Cedric Ogbuehi are out for Seattle.

Pick: Steelers | Vs Spread: Steelers -5 | Over: 43

(-250) Bills at (+210) Titans (+6, o/u 54.5)

Buffalo rides a 4-game win streak into Tennessee as they look to get revenge for last season’s 26-point loss and assert themselves as the favorites in the AFC. The Titans have gotten to 3-2 and sit atop the AFC South despite playing mediocre football to this point. They are still dangerous and they get WR Julio Jones back for this one, but the Bills’ defense has done a good job against them mostly. Buffalo has yet to allow Derrick Henry to crack the 100-yard mark and have won 2/3 since the rivalry heated back up in 2018. Even when the Bills lost 42-16 last season, they held the Titans’ offense mostly in check but shot themselves in the foot with turnovers. This time around, the Bills bring the highest-scoring offense and #1 defense into Nashville. Matt Milano looks ready to go at linebacker as well while the Titans have several key defensive starters listed as questionable, including LBs Rahsaan Evans and Bud Dupree. Buffalo has improved a lot since these teams met last season and it shows, Tennesee has not and that shows too. As long as the Bills didn’t let the Chiefs win get to their heads, they should be in a good position to win this game.

Pick: Bills | Vs Spread: Bills -6 | Over: 54.5