Week 4 got started pretty much like I thought it would, with the Denver Broncos beating the New York Jets 37-28. When two bad defenses play each other, you should always take the over. For some reason, I have trouble following my advice and watched the under get obliterated like a controlled detonation. Broncos’ third-string-quarterback-turned-starter, Brett Rypien, looked solid early on but began to wilt down the stretch as he let the Jets back in the game with numerous bad interceptions.
Denver scored late in the 3rd quarter and early in the 4th to open up a 27-16 lead and it looked like the Jets were done. A quick drive capped by a Sam Ficken field goal cut the Broncos’ lead to eight and a pick-six by Pierre Desir (who rebounded nicely after a tough start) cut the lead to two after the failed 2-pt conversion. Rypien threw another pick almost right away on the ensuing possession and the Jets took the 28-27 lead on Ficken’s 5th-FG of the evening. Suddenly, my Broncos underdog bet wasn’t looking so good. Getting the ball back with the game on the line, things were looking dire as Rypien got sacked on 3rd down, but a Jets’ facemask penalty bailed out Denver and moved the ball near midfield. Backed into 3rd down again, Rypien came with the throw that would decide the game, hitting Tim Patrick for a 22-yard gain down to the Jets’ 22-yard line. Despite that throw, the novice QB continued to find ways to try to lose the game. Somehow back in 3rd & 13, Rypien (un)intentionally grounded the ball and forced Broncos’ kicker Brandon McManus to attempt a 53-yard go-ahead FG. Fortunately, McManus has been one of the best big-leg kickers in the game and drilled the kick to put the Broncos up 30-28. That FG would be the game-winner, but the Jets would turn the ball over on downs, and Melvin Gordon III would tack on a TD to blow the under at 59.5-points as well.
Somehow, someway, New York’s front office doesn’t seem interested in firing head coach Adam Gase. I get that they are dealing with a long list of injuries, but they lost at home to a team that’s equally as beat up and started a 3rd-stringer at QB. The Jets also won the turnover battle 3-0 but showed their complete lack of discipline with 11-penalties for 118-yards, and that’s not counting the plays where they committed multiple infractions. This Jets team doesn’t get a more winnable game this season, so 0-16 is a legitimate reality. If the plan is to Tank for Trevor, the Jets are certainly in the lead. I never imagined feeling sorry for Sam Darnold but, in this set of circumstances, I do.
Moving on to the rest of the league, we’ve run into our first Covid-19 related problems of the season. Unfortunately, the two games impacted are the best matchups of the week in Patriots/Chiefs and Titans/Steelers. Tennessee initially had an outbreak after their game in Minnesota last week but the Vikings haven’t had any positive tests yet. Rescheduling the game for Monday or Tuesday was an option but the Titans had more positives in subsequent days so the game was scrapped for this week. Patriots’ QB Cam Newton tested positive Saturday morning and I’m sure the league is now scrambling to salvage that game. As of Saturday night, the game could land on Monday or Tuesday, so I’ll pick it but save the breakdown.
POSTPONED
(3-0)Pittsburgh Steelers at (3-0)Tennessee Titans (+1, 47)
(2-1)New England Patriots at (3-0)Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 53.5)
Pick: Chiefs
Vs Spread: Patriots
(2-1)Indianapolis Colts at (3-0)Chicago Bears (+2.5, 45)
Breakdown: With the postponements, this moves up to one of the more interesting games of the week. Philip Rivers didn’t have a great debut with the Colts, but he rebounded with back-to-back Ws. It’s tough to tell which Bears team you’re going to get, especially now that Nick Foles is officially in the mix. The Colts score a little more and give up significantly less but both teams have faced weak competition so far, with a slight edge going to Chicago. However, the Bears have almost lost all three games with two 4th quarter comebacks and one last-second stand. They could very easily be 0-3 but their defense has given them chances to win. The Colts seem to play the better brand of football, but they’re always going to be a Rivers’ INT away from danger. Colts to cover on the road. Under 45.
Pick: Colts
Vs Spread: Colts
Over/Under: Under 45
(1-2)New Orleans Saints at (1-2)Detroit Lions (+4, 54)
Breakdown: This is a big-time gut-check game for NO, about as close to a must-win game as they could have at this juncture, but how bad is the Saints’ defense? If you’ve been reading my weeklies, you know I think it’s abysmal. Additionally, their starting corners Marshon Lattimore and Janors Jenkins are out for this game which doesn’t bode well against a Lions team with considerable receiving weapons. Plus, starting tight end Jared Cook is out this week too, so the Saints’ passing offense and defense are both severely hobbled. The Detroit defense managed to force 3-INTs from Kyler Murray last week, which was bound to happen to the young Cardinals’ QB at some point, but that was an impressive road win for the Lions. My head tells me the Saints are the better team but I see more avenues for Detroit to win at this point.
Pick: Lions
Vs Spread: Lions
Over/Under: Under 54
(2-1)Arizona Cardinals at (1-2)Carolina Panthers (+3.5, 52)
Breakdown: There are levels to becoming a good team and the Cardinals got a wake-up call at home against the Lions last week. One of those levels is winning the games you’re supposed to win. Detroit may not be a great team, but they compete and Arizona found out the hard way that there are no weeks off in the NFL…well, except for bye weeks…but you get my point. The Panthers got one in the win column without their consensus #1 fantasy football draft pick Christian McCaffrey and that tells me their offensive approach isn’t dependent on him. Sure, it works better when he’s out there but Mike Davis is a capable veteran running back and he showed it against the Chargers. Carolina’s defense still isn’t great so I expect the Cards and Kyler Murray to bounce back and cover on the road.
Pick: Cardinals
Vs Spread: Cardinals
Over/Under: Under 52
(1-2)Jacksonville Jaguars at (0-2-1)Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 48)
Breakdown: This isn’t the most appealing matchup on paper, but it should be a fun one. The Jags got embarrassed at home by the Dolphins while the Bengals nearly won in Philly last week. D.J. Chark is back for Gardner Minshew which should open up the passing game a little for Jacksonville and James Robinson should have a good day against the Cincinnati defense that gets gouged on the ground. That JAX passing defense got shredded by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bengals love to throw the ball. This has all the making of a high-scoring affair but Cincy has been clawing at the door of their first W and I think they get it here at home.
Pick: Bengals
Vs Spread: Bengals
Over/Under: Over 48
(2-1)Cleveland Browns at (1-2)Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 55)
Breakdown: Cleveland is riding back-to-back wins while Dallas should be 0-3, but when I look at this matchup I see similar teams. The Cowboys throw the ball a lot better, granted they are playing from behind constantly, and they get a favorable matchup here. If both teams do what they do, Dallas scores more and I’ll take Dak Prescott over Baker Mayfield all day and twice on Sunday. This game gets the Boys back to .500 and the top of the heap in the middling NFC East.
Pick: Cowboys
Vs Spread: Cowboys
Over/Under: Under 55
(0-3)Minnesota Vikings at (0-3)Houston Texans (-3.5, 54.5)
Breakdown: Both of these teams played their best games of the season in Week 3 but neither could get a win. I would say one of these teams has to win, but we just saw the winless Bengals and Eagles play to a very annoying tie last week. Both of these defenses give up more than 31-points/game but I see Deshaun Watson posing more of a threat than Kirk Cousins. I think Houston gets their first W in a high scoring game.
Pick: Texans
Vs Spread: Texans
Over/Under: Over 54.5
(3-0)Seattle Seahawks at (1-2)Miami Dolphins (+6.5, 54.5)
Breakdown: Conventional wisdom says the Seahawks should smash the Dolphins, but it’s not that simple. Seattle gives up a lot of points and the most passing yards in the league, over 400/game actually, and starting safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Quinton Dunbar are both out. Miami quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to throw the ball and is coming off a great game vs the Jags. Comparatively, the Hawks have the second-best run defense so I expect the Fins to be throwing often and they have some talented receivers. The Seattle defensive scheme could still pose problems for Fitz-Magic who’s known to throw an interception or two but he could also still throw for 300 and 3TDs. I’m pretty sure Seattle wins but 6.5-points is tricky.
Pick: Seahawks
Vs Spread: Seahawks
Over/Under: Over 54.5
(1-2)Los Angeles Chargers at (2-1)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5, 45)
Breakdown: The Buccaneers look to be getting it together with Tom Brady at the helm, while the Chargers are coming off a disappointing home loss. Justin Herbert continues to start at QB for LA while but it’ll be tough for the youngster to outduel Brady, especially with Mike Williams and Brian Bulaga out. Tampa averages 10-points/game more than LA but will be without Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin. Covering will be a bit tricky here at 7.5-points but the Bucs should win this one.
Pick: Bucs
Vs Spread: Chargers
Over/Under: Under 45
(0-3)New York Giants at (2-1)Los Angeles Rams (-13, 47.5)
Breakdown: The G-Men are terrible and the Rams aren’t. Los Angeles runs the ball effectively and can throw off the play-action too well for the Giants’ defense. New York has barely scored more all season than LA did last week in Buffalo. I’ll go with the Rams to cover.
Pick: Rams
Vs Spread: Rams
Over/Under: Over 47.5
(3-0)Buffalo Bills at (2-1)Las Vegas Raiders (+3, 52.5)
Breakdown: Both the Bills and Raiders have shown they have good offenses, but Vegas got shut down by the Patriots and nobody has slowed down Buffalo yet. The Raiders’ defense gives up more PPG and they are already a bit dinged up, but it’s not like the Bills are locking anyone down either. This has all the makings of a high octane shootout but Josh Allen brings a different level of threat to the table for Buffalo. I like the Bills moving to 4-0.
Pick: Bills
Vs Spread: Bills
Over/Under: Over 52.5
(0-2-1)Philadelphia Eagles at (2-1)San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45)
Breakdown: Fresh off a tie, the Eagles are desperately trying to get their first W of the season heading to San Francisco. The Niners are one o the most banged-up teams in the league but they do get George Kittle back. Philly is thin at wide receiver and cornerback but the 49ers are still without their starting QB, their best RB, and several key pieces on the defense. If there was ever a time for the Eags to get a break, this is it. Frisco still runs the ball well but the Birds have been stingy against the run. In a game where both teams are decimated, Philly might sneak it out.
Pick: 49ers
Vs Spread: Eagles
Over/Under: Under 45
(2-1)Baltimore Ravens at (1-2)Washington Football Team (+13.5, 51)
Breakdown: The Ravens need a win in a big way after getting starched at home by the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Washington is still in the early stages of team building and they haven’t looked good since getting a Week 1 win over the Eagles. Washington also has a lot of guys out this week, so the Ravens should handle business.
Pick: Ravens
Vs Spread: Ravens
Over/Under: Under 51
(0-3)Atlanta Falcons at (3-0)Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 58)
Breakdown: In what may or may not be the final game of the week, the Falcons get fed to the Packers on Monday Night Football. You know how I feel about the Falcons and I finally get a spread that’s not even remotely tempting. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are both questionable but both starting safeties are out. Green Bay is beat up too but Aaron Rodgers should light it up against the worst scoring defense in the league that gives up over 350-yds/game through the air. I don’t know how many guttings ATL can take before they don’t fight back anymore. Packers all the way.
Pick: Packers
Vs Spread: Packers
Over/Under: Under 58