NFL ratings were down across the board in the first week of the season. Maybe it has something to do with the availability of other sports, but it’s not a good trend from the league’s perspective. This week’s lineup of games doesn’t exactly scream “must-see-TV” either. Nonetheless, I’ll be plugged in and watching. I went 12-4 overall last week, while Christen went a respectable 10-6. Here are our picks for Week 2:
(0-1) Cincinnati Bengals at (0-1) Cleveland Browns (-6, o/u 43.5):
Breakdown: When the Bengals head to Cleveland to take on the Browns on Thursday Night Football, it’s the audience that loses. Why this game is slated for a spotlight game this early in the season is beyond me, but it tells me the league is high on Cincy’s rookie QB Joe Burrow. The #1 overall pick looked pretty good in his first game but ultimately had to take the L thanks to an offensive pass interference call on the go-ahead score. Cleveland got whipped by the Ravens but returning home tends to help a little and road wins don’t come easy for rookie QBs. The 6-point spread is very generous, so I’m definitely taking the Bengals to cover, and they have a solid shot at winning outright at +190 underdogs.
Pick: Browns
Vs Spread: Bengals +6
Los Angeles Rams at (1-0) Philadelphia Eagles (+1, o/u 46):
Breakdown: The Rams got off to a good start in the post-Todd Gurley-era but Jared Goff still didn’t look the like QB the Rams are paying him ($33.5-mil/year) to be. Narrowly edging out a Dallas team that went 3-5 down the stretch to lose the division and miss the playoffs isn’t the most impressive, but a win is a win. The Eagles choked away a 17-0 lead on Carson Wentz turnovers, so I’m tempted to think they’re better than that. Plus, they were significantly short-handed and the defense didn’t allow a ton of yardage amid those 27-unanswered-points from Washington. This is a close matchup for a reason but I tend to think the Eags can edge out a win at home if they can clean up the turnovers.
Pick: Eagles
Vs Spread: Eagles
(0-1) New York Giants at (1-0) Chicago Bears (-6.5, o/u 42):
Breakdown: The Bears pulled off a remarkable come-from-behind victory on the road in Detroit, and Mitch Trubisky looked pretty good when it mattered most. The Lions aren’t the sternest test but road wins never come easy. The G-Men have some work to do in order to get the most out of Saquon Barkley, but if they can’t run block for him then it’s going to be tough sledding all season. Maybe it was just the Steelers’ defense but there is nowhere to go but up, so I expect the Giants to get better. It’s a difficult road test for NY at +200 playing in Chicago, but 6.5-points is a very favorable spread and the Bears gave up 23-points to Detroit.
Pick: Bears
Vs Spread: Giants
(0-1) Atlanta Falcons at (0-1) Dallas Cowboys (-5, o/u 52):
Breakdown: The oddsmakers are begging for action on Atlanta. They played from behind a lot against the Seahawks last week while the offense put up gaudy numbers, but it was a close game at one point. Dallas looked okay against the Rams but 39 pass attempts only resulted in 1-TD, so that doesn’t seem to warrant that level of commitment to the passing game from new coach Mike McCarthy. The lack of a long term extension for Dak Prescott and the signing of Andy Dalton only reaffirms my lack of faith in the Cowboys. The Falcons pack more than enough firepower to overwhelm the Cowboys defense who just lost their starting middle linebacker and offer good underdog value at +170.
Pick: Falcons
Vs Spread: Falcons
(0-1) San Francisco 49ers at (0-1) New York Jets (+6.5, o/u 42.5):
Breakdown: San Francisco is coming off a tough L against a very good Cardinals team, but Jimmy G didn’t look good in the home loss. The 49ers have the deepest backfield in the league and they need to lean into that strength until Deebo Samuel comes back to boost the receiving corps. The Jets suffer from similar QB woes with Sam Darnold under center and they just placed Le’Veon Bell on injured reserve so it’ll be an uphill battle against an angry 49ers squad looking to get in the win column.
Pick: Niners
Vs Spread: Niners
(0-1) Carolina Panthers at (0-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9, o/u 49):
Breakdown: The Tom Brady era in Tampa Bay got off to an inauspicious start in New Orleans last week. He misfired on a couple of passes, one of which resulted in a pick-6 and basically ended the game. I fully expect them to the right the pirate ship but the Panthers can score. They put up 30-pts in a losing effort to the Raiders, including 15 4th-quarter-points. Back-to-back losses for Tom & Co. seem unlikely but a 9-pt spread is huge and I don’t have the stones to take Carolina as +290 dogs.
Pick: Bucs
Vs Spread: Panthers
(0-1) Detroit Lions at (1-0) Green Bay Packers (-6, o/u 47.5):
Breakdown: Like the Eagles, the Lions also choked away a 17-pt lead down the stretch. Matt Stafford’s return was a mixed bag, throwing for almost 300-yards on 24/42 with 1-td & 1-int. That many attempts with those kinds of results, especially while playing with the lead, screams bad game-script from head coach Matt Patricia. The Packers slapped up the Vikings before surrendering a bunch of garbage-time points but I like the Packers at home. Stafford’s had some success in Lambeau at 3-6, but those 3-wins came in his last 5 trips to Green Bay. I’m still going Packers, but the Lions are not dead underdogs at +240.
Pick: Packers
Vs Spread: Packers
(1-0) Buffalo Bills at (0-1) Miami Dolphins (+5.5, o/u 41):
Breakdown: The Bills looked (mostly) good in against the Jets and the Dolphins looked mostly bad against the Patriots in Week 1. Buffalo has owned Miami over the past three seasons, going 5-1 over that span and 3-1 with Josh Allen at the helm. Cam Newton exploited the QB run and I expect Allen to do the same. Bills by 5.5-points makes sense.
Pick: Bills
Vs Spread: Bills
(0-1) Denver Broncos at (1-0) Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, o/u 41.5):
Breakdown: Big Ben is back for the Steelers and their defense is still pretty good. Denver didn’t look awful against the Titans but there would have been no drama in a two-score-game had Gostkowski made his kicks. Plus, Phillip Lindsay and Cortland Sutton are both banged up so I’ll go with the Steel Curtain at home.
Pick: Steelers
Vs Spread: Steelers
(0-1) Minnesota Vikings at (0-1) Indianapolis Colts (-3, o/u 48):
Breakdown: How Minny ended up dogs in this game, I don’t know. Getting handled by Green Bay and losing a winnable game to the Jaguars aren’t on the same scale. The only things certain in life are death, taxes, and Philip Rivers throwing picks. Marlon Mack just went on IR for the Colts too which will make it harder to sustain drives against a Vikings team that needs to rebound. Vikes are juicy dogs at +145.
Pick: Vikings
Vs Spread: Vikings
(1-0) Jacksonville Jaguars at (1-0) Tennessee Titans (-9, o/u 42.5):
Breakdown: Stephen Gostkowsi’s missed FGs aside, the Titans didn’t dominate the Broncos. Somehow the game-script allowed Derrick Henry 31-carries and Ryan Tannehill still threw the ball 43 times but several drives still stalled. JAX did what they did all last year and surprised mid-tier teams. Gardner Minshew looks good as the starting QB and a little bit of defense can go a long way. The Jags at +275 will bring more scoring potential into this game than Denver so I’m looking at a 9-pt spread as a mistake. However, Henry has feasted on the Jacksonville defense in recent years so I will take the Titans to win.
Pick: Titans
Vs Spread: Jaguars
(1-0) Washington at (1-0) Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, o/u 46.5):
Breakdown: Washington deserves credit for their comeback against Philly, but so does Carson Wentz. Arizona deserves more credit for beating the 49ers in San Francisco. Kyler Murray is serious problems and the AZ defense can get after the passer. I like the Cards at -6.5
Pick: Cardinals
Vs Spread: Cardinals
(1-0) Kansas City Chiefs at (1-0) Los Angeles Chargers (+8.5, o/u 47.5):
Breakdown: While the Chiefs looked dominant against an overmatched Texans team, the Chargers played down to their hideous uniforms and almost lost against a rookie QB. I’d say 8.5 is generous but the Bolts are very conservative on offense, the Chiefs aren’t.
Pick: Chiefs
Vs Spread: Chiefs
(1-0) Baltimore Ravens at (0-1) Houston Texans (+6.5, o/u 52.5):
Breakdown: The Texans have to improve a little bit coming home after an embarrassing loss to Kansas City to start the season on national TV. Deshaun Watson should be able to keep things interesting but the Ravens have a more diverse attack, a better coach, and…oh yea…Lamar Jackson. It’s one of those games where each QB will be measured by the performance of the other, so it should be fun.
Pick: Ravens
Vs Spread: Ravens
(1-0) New England Patriots at (1-0) Seattle Seahawks (-4, o/u 45):
Breakdown: Cam Newton started his tenure in New England with a win, but it was against the Dolphins. The Seahawks started the “Let Russ Cook” movement with a decisive win on the road in Atlanta, but the pass defense didn’t look great. The new Patriots will be more run dominant and Cam Newton is 1-5 career against Seattle but it’s usually a close game. No 12s in the stadium will be a weird homecoming but I like the Hawks by 4.
Pick: Seahawks
Vs Spread: Seahawks
(1-0) New Orleans Saints at (1-0) Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5, o/u 51.5):
Breakdown: Two high-octane offenses close out the week in the Raiders’ new Vegas home on Monday Night Football. The Saints had the better quality win vs the Buccaneers but Vegas did them a favor by giving Carolina a loss. However, the Raiders gave up 30 to the Panthers and that doesn’t bode well against a much more experience Saints offense. If Michael Thomas doesn’t play or is compromised, it could create issues but NO has a lot of wrinkles to their offense and can score without him. I know Vegas wants to break in their new stadium with a W, but I’ll take the team with Drew Brees.
Pick: Saints
Vs Spread: Saints