Thursday night’s AFC West clash between the Raiders and Chargers almost exactly as I predicted, except for the part where Las Vegas lost at home to basically end their playoff chances. The teams combined for more than 52.5-points, the Bolts covered the spread, the Raiders’ defense struggled, Michael Badgley missed some costly field goals, and the game came down to quarterback play. Had Derek Carr not injured himself early in the game, things could have been a little different but Marcus Mariota filled in nicely. The problem for Vegas was that the Chargers’ rookie QB Justin Herbert played the best game of his young career and he did it mostly without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
This was a wildly entertaining game and when the game headed to overtime, the odds of me pulling a trifecta win were slim. Vegas started the extra frame with a FG that, if LA had matched it, would have set the table for a Daniel Carlson game-winner for the Raiders. Unfortunately, the crappy defense couldn’t stop the Bolts’ offense and Herbert, rightfully, punched in the game-winning TD. It was good to see Mariota back on the field and playing well. He scored twice, throwing for 226-yards and running for 88. There was an interception that flipped the field (that he ran down and saved a score) and a couple of missed deep throws, but overall he gave them a chance to win.
The Raiders’ four-consecutive losses can be tied directly to the production of Josh Jacobs. Even before his ankle injury during the Falcons game at the end of November, his effectiveness had dipped. During the losing streak, Jacobs has 63-carries for 207-yards (and 2-TDs) but that’s only 3.3 yards-per-carry. In Thursday’s game, he only managed 76-yards on 26-carries. While he scored, the inability to set the tone on the ground has marked Las Vegas’ fall. The run game starts at the line of scrimmage and the offensive line has to take responsibility for the erosion of the run game.
Vegas isn’t technically out of the playoff race, but their hopes are in critical condition. It may be time to start planning ahead for John Gruden. Los Angeles has reason to be hopeful heading down the stretch and into next season. Herbert looked great, the run game is solid and has depth, and the defense will be much improved with an extra season under their belts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bolts make a play for the Wild Card spot next season.
(10-3)Buffalo Bills at (5-8)Denver Broncos (+6, 49)
Breakdown: Getting things started on Saturday, the Bills head into Denver looking to be crowned AFC Champs. Buffalo is fresh off their biggest win of the last four seasons, unseating the Steelers as the NFL’s best team. Denver continues to show they are a tough out as they went into Carolina and picked up a tough road win over the Panthers. Buffalo is the better team but heading into Mile High Stadium after a monumental victory has the makings of a letdown game. I’m not saying the Bills are going to lose, but these teams are actually kind of similar and I could see it being close. The primary difference is that the Bills’ defense is much better.
After facing the Chargers’ and Steelers’ top-rated pass defenses in the last two weeks, Denver’s #9 unit shouldn’t be as intimidating. John Brown is still out but the Bills’ receiving corps has proven to be tough to handle regardless. The same can be said of the Broncos who have a really good set of receiving threats even without their #1 Cortland Sutton. Quarterback play is going to be a big factor in this game and the Bills have the edge there. I could see it being a close one but, with the opportunity to clinch the AFC East title for the first time since 1995, I would hope the bills show up to handle business.
Pick: Bills
ATS: Bills -6
Over/Under: Over 49
(4-9)Carolina Panthers at (10-3)Green Bay Packers (-8, 51.5)
Breakdown: Green Bay now has control of the #1 seed in the NFC while Carolina doesn’t have a whole lot to play for. Christian McCaffrey is doubtful and there’s no reason to rush him back out there, but the Panthers have some other important questionables like WR Curtis Samuel and T Russell Okung. The Packers are mostly healthy in key positions, which doesn’t bode well for a Carolina defense that gave up 32-points to the Broncos. It’ll be literally freezing at Lambeau on Saturday night so I have to think that favors the Packers.
Pick: Packers
ATS: Packers -8
Over/Under: Under 51.5
(4-9)Houston Texans at (9-4)Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 51)
Breakdown: The Texans continued to struggle as they got blown out by a Bears team that was on a six-game losing streak. Now they get a Colts squad fresh off a 44-27 beatdown of the Raiders. Indy eeked out a win in Houston when these teams played a couple weeks ago but this one doesn’t feel like it’s going to be close. Even with DeShaun Watson on pace to have a career best season and David Johnson returning to the lineup, this matchup doesn’t favor the Texans in the least. Their defense is plainly bad (2nd worst vs the run and 24th vs the pass) and they aren’t scoring enough to compensate. It’s a division game, so I’m inclined to think it’ll be close but I’m not seeing it this way. It’s the time of the season where the good teams need to separate themselves from
Pick: Colts
ATS: Colts -7.5
Over/Under: Under 51
(6-7)Chicago Bears at (6-7)Minnesota Vikings (-3, 46)
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Breakdown: This game is surprisingly important to the NFC Wild Card picture as the Cardinals only hold a one-game lead for the #7 spot. The last time these two teams met, Minnesota walked away with a hotly contested, low-scoring victory on Monday Night Football. Since making the switch back to Mitch Trubisky under center, Chicago’s offense has woken up. Somehow their defense let the Lions overcome a 10-pt, 4th-quarter deficit two weeks and that’s concerning for a team that prides themselves on defense. They held Dalvin Cook mostly in check last time, but Kirk Cousins threw for almost 300-yards and 2-TDs. I think Minny is more equipped to win at home if they play right, but it’ll be close.
Pick: Vikings
ATS: Vikings -3
Over/Under: Over 46
(5-8)Detroit Lions at (9-4)Tennessee Titans (-11, 51.5)
Breakdown: I’ve made my thoughts about picking the Lions pretty clear, but this is one is tempting. The Titans are going to unleash King Henry and if Aaron Jones can average 4.6-yards per carry against the Lions defense, then it’s going to be a long day. This is the time of season where Henry thrives but, even with his unquestionable dominance, the Tennessee defense hasn’t been good. They are 15th against the run and 29th against the pass which opens the door for the Lions to keep it a game. However, Detroit’s defense is equally as bad and much worse against the run. They are also down Kenny Golladay, two offensive lineman, potentially two defensive lineman, and a cornerback.
Pick: Titans
ATS: Lions +11
Over/Under: Over 51.5
(1-12)Jacksonville Jaguars at (8-5)Baltimore Ravens (-13, 48)
Breakdown: This is as good of a spot as the Ravens could have hoped for after pulling out a W in a crazy game against the Browns last Monday night. Gardner Minshew II is back at QB for the Jags as they haven’t been able to find any answers to stop their 12-game skid. The Jacksonville defense is at the bottom of the league in all the key categories. Most importantly they’re 30th against the run giving up 145-yards per game and Baltimore has the #1 rushing attack in football. It’s just what the doctor ordered for the Ravens who need the win to give themselves a chance to get the 7th playoff spot in the AFC. The Jags have managed to hang tough with some good teams late in the season but it the gates may have finally fallen after Derrick Henry pounded them for 200-yards last week. The 13-pt spread is a big one but the Ravens’ defense is markedly better and they’ll go after whoever is in the game.
Pick: Ravens
ATS: Ravens -13
Over/Under: Under 48
(6-7)New England Patriots at (8-5)Miami Dolphins (-1.5, 41.5)
Breakdown: In one of the week’s more intriguing matchups, the Patriots try to rebound from a one-sided defeat to the Rams and play spoiler vs the Dolphins. Both teams are coming off losses, but the Fins hung in there with the Chiefs. Bill Belichick has a way of confounding rookie QBs and he’ll look to do it once again vs Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins’ rookie looked good against Kansas City but he wasn’t playing when these two teams met earlier in the season. I thought Justin Herbert was going to do fairly well against NE a couple weeks ago, but he couldn’t even get a FG on the board for his team. There’s just something about the Pats coverages that always cause problems for young QBs. Miami does have the #2 scoring defense in the league but they are 19th against the pass and 21st against the run, where NE is strongest. I expect Belichick to dose the run heavily and force the Dolphins’ bottom-10 offense to step up.
Pick: Patriots
ATS: Patriots +1.5
Over/Under: Under 41.5
(9-4)Seattle Seahawks at (6-7)Washington Football Team (+6.5, 44.5)
Breakdown: I want to believe the Seahawks are going to cover in this game, but beating up on the Jets doesn’t get you ready for Washington. Four straight wins for Washington, including the big one over the Steelers, have them in 1st place in the NFC East. They have a top-10 defense, but Seattle has a stout run defense and Antonio Gibson is doubtful. Washington is also without Alex Smith, who has led them during their resurgence, along with ex-Seahawks LB Kevin Pierre-Louis and LB Cole Holcomb. At full strength, I’d be thinking more highly of Washington’s chances but, with Dwayne Haskins under center, I think it’s going to be rough sledding for an offense that doesn’t typically light it up. The front seven for their defense can cause problems similar to how the Giants beat Seattle, but I’ve gotta think the Hawks learned from that game.
Pick: Seahawks
ATS: Seahawks -6.5
Over/Under: Under 44.5
(5-8)San Francisco 49ers at (4-9)Dallas Cowboys (+3, 45)
Breakdown: Just because the Cowboys finally pulled a win out of their hats doesn’t mean I’m ready to start favoring them. The Niners still like to run the ball and Dallas has the worst run defense in the league. Plus, Deebo Samuel is out. Do the math. San Francisco also has a top-5 pass defense and the #8 run defense. There’s not much on the line but this is a rivalry game and both teams are technically in the playoff hunt. I’ll stick with the far better defense.
Pick: 49ers
ATS: 49ers -3
Over/Under: Under 45
(8-5)Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (4-9)Atlanta Falcons (+6.5, 48.5)
Breakdown: The Bucs got back to winning away from the spotlight as their defense shut down a fairly potent Vikings’ offense. It’s not the dominant defensive unit we saw earlier in the season but the Falcons are still without Julio Jones and a consistent run game. Matt Ryan made the crucial mistake against the Chargers and the Bucs’ front-four is going to get after him in the pass rush. It’s a tough spot for Atlanta whose defense is also going to be under fire. Tampa has yet to lose to a truly bad team and it doesn’t start now.
Pick: Bucs
ATS: Bucs -6.5
Over/Under: Under 48.5
(0-13)New York Jets at (9-4)Los Angeles Rams (-17, 43.5)
Breakdown: The 17-point spread says it all. New York is in for a long day and after they got thrashed by Seattle, the huge spread is appropriate. Oddsmakers are begging for action on the Jets. They are mostly healthy but are taking on the Rams’ league leading defense. Top-3 in all the major categories, they also give up the fewest yards per play and could very well take over as the top scoring defense when this game is over. Los Angeles is in a dead heat with Seattle for the NFC West crown and every game counts.
Pick: Rams
ATS: Rams -17
Over/Under: Under 43.5
(4-8-1)Philadelphia Eagles at (7-6)Arizona Cardinals (-6, 49.5)
Breakdown: The Jalen Hurts hype train has officially left the station. While he looked good in his debut, I’m going to say the Saints didn’t take the Eags seriously enough. This will be a true test on the road against a team that’s right in the middle of the playoff hunt and has Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals haven’t looked great down the stretch here but they are the better team and it’s a must-win for them. These teams are pretty even defensively but the Cards have a better offense.
Pick: Cardinals
ATS: Eagles +6
Over/Under: Over 49.5
(12-1)Kansas City Chiefs at (10-3)New Orleans Saints (+3, 52.5)
Breakdown: This is the game of the week and a potential Super Bowl preview. New Orleans dropped the ball against the Eags and lost control of the #1 seed in the NFC and now Drew Brees is back. However, he’s without Michael Thomas in his return. Brees has tried to return from injury too early before and recovering from a bunch of broken ribs is the kind of injury that he’s going to feel on every play. I know this is an important game but not as important as their long term chances. Brees is not in rhythm and the likelihood of re-injury is high in this situation. If he goes down again, it’s a wrap for the Saints. Kansas City keeps on rolling and it’ll be tough for New Orleans to keep pace without Thomas.
Pick: Chiefs
ATS: Chiefs -3
Over/Under: Under 52.5
(9-4)Cleveland Browns at (5-8)New York Giants (+6.5, 44)
Breakdown: This Giants did not look good in Daniel Jones’ return and their four-game win streak came to an end. Their playoff hopes are on life support and they got a tough draw here. These teams are pretty similar statistically but the primary edge belongs to Cleveland’s running attack. New York’s run defense is ranked 7th but it’s going to be put to the test. The Browns only give up 13-yards more per game on the ground and the G-Men don’t run it as well. I’m sure the Browns have something to prove after their loss to the Ravens.
Pick: Browns
ATS: Browns -6.5
Over/Under: Under 44
(11-2)Pittsburgh Steelers at (2-10-1)Cincinnati Bengals (+13, 40)
Breakdown: Surprisingly, the spread is only 13-points in this game and that’s because the Steelers offense hasn’t looked very good the last few weeks. Their defense is getting key starters back and will take care of the Bengals. Even in a low-scoring game, it should be enough.
Pick: Steelers
ATS: Steelers -13
Over/Under: Under 40
| Nick | Nick ATS | Over/Under | Christen |
| Chargers +3.5 | Over 52.5 | ||
| Bills | Bills -6 | Over 49 | Bills |
| Packers | Packers -8 | Under 51.5 | Packers |
| Colts | Colts -7.5 | Under 51 | Colts |
| Vikings | Vikings -3 | Over 46 | Vikings |
| Titans | Lions +11 | Over 51.5 | Titans |
| Ravens | Ravens -13 | Under 48 | Ravens |
| Patriots | Patriots +1.5 | Under 41.5 | Dolphins |
| Seahawks | Seahawks -6.5 | Under 44.5 | Seahawks |
| 49ers | 49ers -3 | Under 45 | 49ers |
| Bucs | Bucs -6.5 | Under 48.5 | Bucs |
| Rams | Rams -17 | Under 43.5 | Rams |
| Cardinals | Eagles +6 | Over 49.5 | Eagles |
| Chiefs | Chiefs -3 | Under 52.5 | Chiefs |
| Browns | Browns -6.5 | Under 44.5 | Browns |
| Steelers | Steelers -13 | Under 40 | Steelers |