Thursday night was a bit of a weird one between the Saints and the Cowboys in New Orleans, but I managed to get everything but the over/under and I nailed the final score at 27-17 Dallas.
The Saints were shorthanded heading into the matchup but their defense stepped up. They (mostly) shut down the Cowboys’ run game and pressured Dak Prescott into off-target throws for much of the game. It was a valiant effort from New Orleans and they were only down 13-10 halfway through the 3rd quarter but then the tires blew out on the party bus.
While Dak’s stat line wasn’t the best at 26/40, 238-yards, 1-TD, 1-INT but things were much worse for Taysom Hill. He wasn’t having the best return to the starting job but it got worse when he bashed his hand on a Dallas defender in the 1st quarter and wound up with mallet finger, just like Russell Wilson. Reports are that it’s not as severe and he continued to play through the rest of the game, but he was all over the place with the ball. I feel partly responsible because Wilson was my fantasy QB and when he injured his finger, I stashed Hill for later, and then in his first start he winds up with the same injury. Sorry Saints fans.
Despite the injury, it was a close game and the Saints came up with an interception, down 20-10. They were starting in Dallas territory and poised to at least cut it back to a one-score game with plenty of game left. However, space-time folded and created a gravity well into a dimension of interceptions. With about six-and-a-half minutes in the game, Hill threw the first of three-consecutive picks. The third was a pick-six directly into the face of Carlos Watkins who returned it 29-yards for the score to ice the game. New Orleans did get that garbage time TD on a Hill-to-Deonte Harris 70-yard catch-and-run to help pad the fantasy numbers but it was too little too late. Hill finished the evening 19/41 for 264-yards with 2-TDs, 4-INTs, and 101-yards rushing. It’ll be very interesting to see him try and play through the finger injury moving forward.
(-350) Vikings at (+280) Lions (+7.5, o/u 46.5)
Both star running backs will be out of this one as Dalvin Cook will miss the game for the Vikings with a separated shoulder and D’Andre Swift will also sit with a shoulder injury. Fortunately, both MIN and DET have solid backups in Alexander Mattison and Jamaal Williams respectively but it’s probably a bigger blow to the Lions’ offense overall. They also won’t have starting linebackers Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Trey Flowers. Minny will be without starting LT Christian Darrisaw and CB Patrick Peterson. The (5-6) Vikes still need this game desperately if they want to stay in the hunt for the post-season while the Lions aren’t playing for more than pride. It was a close game last time and Detroit has been playing hard so a 7.5-point spread is a tough sell.
Pick: Vikings | ATS: Lions +7.5 | O/U: Under 47.5
(-350)Cardinals at (+280) Bears (+7.5, o/u 42.5)
The Cardinals’ injury drama continues as both QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins are being listed as game-time decisions once again. Colt McCoy has proven himself in Murray’s absence and he should be okay if called upon here. The Bears are even more depleted with D-lineman Mario Edwards and Akiem Hicks, WR Marquise Goodwin, and RB Damien Williams all out with QB Justin Fields and WR Allen Robinson II doubtful. That means it’s still Andy Dalton time. If Chicago’s defense was in better shape, I’d give them a better shot. They are at home though, where it will be cold and rainy, and are predicated on power football. So, they’ll have a chance. I like the Bears to cover and the under as-is, but Murray and Hopkins could easily swing that.
Pick: Cardinals | ATS: Bears +7.5 | O/U: Under 42.5
(-550) Buccaneers at (+400) Falcons (+10.5, o/u 50.5)
The Saga of Antonio Brown seemingly knows no limits as he (and safety Mike Edwards) were suspended for violating the league’s Covid protocols by falsifying vaccination cards. I’m pretty sure that might be a felony so his 3-game suspension is the least of his worries. Tampa Bay has gotten back on track, playing without Brown since Week 7, replacing a 2-game skid with a 2-game win streak. Atlanta got back in the win column thanks largely to the return of Cordarrelle Patterson. Both teams are pretty healthy but the Bucs are a little thin at safety with Jordan Whitehead out and Edwards suspended, but they should get CB Carlton Davis back. Lucky for them, the Falcons don’t really stretch the field. Atlanta won’t have Jonathan Bullard on the D-line but it’s not like they were going to stop Tampa anyway. The last time these teams met, the Bucs hung 48-points on them. They also gave up 25-pts but the Falcon offense had more potency before Calvin Ridley got injured. Atlanta does need a win to stay in the thick of the playoff hunt, but Brady and the Bucs seem to be finding their stride much as they did down the stretch last season.
Pick: Bucs | ATS: Bucs -10.5 | O/U: Under 50.5
(-450) Colts at (+350) Texans (+10, o/u 44.5)
Indianapolis is much better than their (6-6) record would indicate. They have the 7th best point differential in the league and could just as easily be 8-3 but have lost very winnable games against division leaders: Baltimore, Tennessee, and Tamp Bay. Either way, the Colts have hard a very difficult schedule but they are battle-tested in that way. Houston didn’t even respond to adversity vs the Jets last week and they got waxed 31-3 last time these teams played. The Texans are also on the wrong end of the injury report, missing starters on the offensive and defensive lines while having RB David Johnson and WRs Brandin Cooks and Chris Conley questionable. It’s an unenviable situation for Houston.
Pick: Colts | ATS: Colts -10 | O/U: Over 44.5
(+240) Eagles at (-300) Jets (+7, o/u 45)
The (5-7) Eagles have to be kicking themselves after last week’s loss to the Giants. It’s not just that they lost, but only scoring 7-points against a team that is giving up 23-ppg is concerning. It’s as if they forgot everything they’d picked up to get back in contention. The (3-8) Jets are far from being “in it” when it comes to the playoff conversation but they did get an unexpected win last week and they did it, surprisingly, with defense. It’s also not like the Houston offense is particularly scary. Philly should be able to overwhelm the Jets on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Eagles | ATS: Eags -7 | O/U: Under 45
(+140) Chargers at (-160) Bengals (-3, o/u 49.5)
I’ve had trouble separating the (6-5) Chargers’ potential from their actual level of play. Losing the way they did on the road in Denver is concerning because they got beat both ways. Meanwhile, the (7-4) Bengals have the 6th best point differential (LAC 12th worst) in the league and have an equally good or better resume than the Bolts. What stands out the most is the disparity in the defenses. Cincy has the 6th ranked scoring defense while LA has the 29th and all of it starts with the Chargers’ awful run defense. They are dead last in yards-per-game and tied for 29th in yards-per-carry. Bengals’ RB Joe Mixon just had the best game of his career against the Steelers last week (165-yds & 2-TDs) and the Bolts gave up 147-yds on the ground to Denver…that’s not a good recipe for LA. Both teams are very similar in their progression from a young, losing team to a consistent winning one but, from what I’ve seen, Cincy has played better all season and is a little further along in their growth curve. It should still be a good one though.
Pick: Bengals | ATS: Bengals -3 | O/U: Over 49.5
(+220) Giants at (-270) Dolphins (-6, o/u 39.5)
I’m sure the (4-7) Giants got a nice confidence boost from their division win over the Eags last week. The (5-7) Dolphins have the second-best (4-game) winning streak in the league behind the Patriots and they’ve been doing it behind the strength of their defense, much as they did down the stretch last season. The majority of that streak isn’t particularly impressive, but they did mix a convincing win over the Ravens in there. The G-Men have been trading wins and losses for six games, so that means they’re on track to lose. It’s more than just that though. Danny Dimes is out for NYG with a neck injury and he’s joined by LB Trent Haris and CB Adoree’ Jackson with WRs Sterling Shephard and Kadarius Toney both doubtful. Given all that and the return of DeVante Parker for Miami, it feels like 6-points isn’t a big enough spread.
Pick: Dolphins | ATS: Fins -6 | O/U: Under 39.5
(+100) Washington at (-120) Raiders (-1, o/u 49.5)
This is an interesting one. (5-6) Washington somehow jumped into the No.7 seed in the NFC with their win over Seattle on Monday and they’ve been playing good football lately, winning 3-straight. Unfortunately, they lost RB J.D. McKissic to a concussion and Landon Collins with a foot injury and DB Benjamin St-Juste is out too. There’s also some concern upfront with LG Ereck Flowers and C Tyler Larsen both questionable. The (6-5) Raiders are without their biggest weapon, TE Darren Waller, with newly acquired speedster WR DeSean Jackson and RB Josh Jacobs both questionable. Washington’s defense has been on the mend lately allowing just about 18-ppg during their win streak, while the Raiders’ defense is giving up more than 32-ppg over their last four. Waller being out is such a big part of how Vegas operates, his absence will loom large and I like Washington’s weaponry better.
Pick: Washington | ATS: WSH +1 | O/U: Under 49.5
(+475) Jaguars at (-700) Rams (-13, o/u 47.5)
The (7-4) Rams have lost 3-straight to fall out of the conversation as the best team in the NFC. Losing Robert Woods has proven to be more catastrophic than it appeared at the time and that says a lot about what we brought to the table. Matthew Stafford has played well this season and is technically on pace to beat Jared Goff’s best 16-game mark with the team, but not by a wide margin and it’s been pretty downhill for Stafford over the last three. More than half of his sacks and interceptions on the year have come in just the last three games. On top of that, LA’s defense is a shadow of their dominant group from last season. Their 23.9-ppg allowed is 21st in the NFL and they’ve given up more than 31-ppg during their 3-game skid. They’ve got RB Darrell Henderson and WR Odell Beckham Jr. listed as questionable, but should still be equipped to beat the Jags. Jacksonville is pretty healthy but they should be outmatched. The Rams need a win in the worst way and are in as good of a spot as they could ask for to get one.
Pick: Rams | ATS: Jags +13 | O/U: Under 47.5
(-220) Ravens at (+180) Steelers (+4.5, o/u 44)
One of, if not, the best rivalries in pro football heats up with the (8-3) Ravens squaring off with the (5-5-1) Steelers. I don’t think Mike Tomlin has ever had a losing season and they’re toeing that line right now, but a win over the Ravens would definitely go a long way towards helping their postseason cause. Right as Pittsburgh looked to have turned the corner, they had that tie with the Lions and lost back-to-back games since and gave up 82-points combined in those Ls. Meanwhile, Baltimore keeps chugging along and finding ways to win. That’s the mark of a good football team. They look mostly okay on the injury front but have five starters listed as questionable. The Steelers are without defensive starters CB Joe Haden (again) and NT Isaiah Buggs. With this type of rivalry, you just never know but I’d have to favor the Ravens.
Pick: Ravens | ATS: Steelers +4.5 | O/U: Under 44
(-170) 49ers at (+145) Seahawks (+3.5, o/u 45.5)
Watching the Seahawks’ struggles is one of the most bizarre stories of this season. During the offseason, I didn’t think they improved and thought there was a good chance they’d miss playoffs (even after a 12-4 season last year), but I didn’t think it would be this bad. Russell Wilson’s mallet finger injury certainly had an impact on the trajectory of their season, but they were 2-2 with him as the starter prior to the injury. Since his return, they are a winless 0-3 and have barely mustered anything. Their defense has stepped since the injury a couple of months ago and kept them in games, but you need points to win. The (6-5) Niners know that and have won 3-straight, scoring more than 30-ppg in those wins. Sadly, WR Deebo Samuel is out for SF, along with LBs Dre Greenlaw, DL Maurice Hurst, and RB Trey Sermon with LB Fred Warner doubtful, that helps SEA a lot. I totally understand why the odds are the way they are for this one but if there’s one team Wilson and the Hawks can get a W against, it’s the Niners. Seattle already beat them once this season and Wilson owns the 49ers…like owns them. He’s 15-4 in his career against SF during the regular season, easily his best mark against any opponent, and just seems to know how to get it done vs them. These teams hate each other, in a good way, and it should be interesting.
Pick: Seahawks | ATS: Hawks +3.5 | O/U: Over 45.5
(+350)Broncos at (-450) Chiefs (-10, o/u 47.5)
I know the (6-5) Broncos just beat the Chargers but winning that game at home is different than going into KC in primetime. The (7-4) Chiefs have reclaimed the division with 4-straight wins and have done it mostly with defense. The trade for Melvin Ingram III seemed to catalyze change and KC is only giving up 11.75-ppg during their win streak. Moving Chris Jones back to the interior defensive line has helped and this group knows how to play together when the season gets late. I like what the Broncos have done but Melvin Gordon III is out and 4-of-5 starting O-lineman is questionable. Denver has done some good stuff, winning three of their last four, but this one feels a little above their paygrade. KC isn’t blowing anyone out right now, so 10-pts seems like a generous spread.
Pick: Chiefs | ATS: Broncos +10 | O/U: Under 47.5
(+120) Patriots at (-140) Bills (-2.5, o/u 45)
Alas, the pièce de résistance. Monday Night Football in Buffalo. The (7-4) Bills have had a rockier season than anticipated to this point and they’ve ceded the division lead to the (8-4) Patriots. However, they have a chance to erase all that noise in the media, about the Pats being back and Mac Jones being the best rookie QB of all time, with a win. Bill Belichick and New England deserve credit for turning their season around after a 2-4 start. Their 6-game W streak is the longest in the league and has them confident. However, the most impressive win on the list is probably the middling Chargers. They did hang tough with the Bucs and Cowboys and hammered the Browns too, so there’s reason to think they are good. They are. The Pats have the No.1 scoring defense in the league, ahead of the Bills’ No.2 group. So, with two good defenses squaring off in potentially bad weather the run game will matter for both sides. The Bills have the better rush defense but the Pats run the ball better. Something has to give. I’m looking at Buffalo’s league-leading pressure rate vs opposing QBs and they don’t have to blitz to do it. Jones is still a rookie under center for NE and Buffalo just has to make that clear early and they can win. The Bills are going to get that crowd energy rocking early at home, but the Pats are also unbeaten on the road this season. What a matchup we have on deck! The winner gets to sit atop the AFC East as the undisputed leader. Go Bills!
Pick: Bills | ATS: Bills -2.5 | O/U: Over 45