Things didn’t go 100% according to plan on the Thanksgiving triple-feature, but one of the favorites was bound to lose. I managed to salvage a 2-1 start to the week as the Bears kicked a game-winning field goal and the Bills covered on the road against the Saints.
The Cowboys let the game get away from them and were stuck playing catch-up the whole way before losing in overtime. I won’t get into much detail as we still have a lot to get through, but the CHI/DET and BUF/NO games went mostly how I expected. Dallas, on the other hand, seemingly abandoned the run game despite missing the top-2 receivers and a subpar Raiders’ run defense but, then again, I’ve never been a fan of Mike McCarthy.
With those three games out of the way, it sets the stage for a Week 12 filled with important matchups and key races around the league. So, let’s get to it.
(+250) Titans at (-320) Patriots (-7, o/u 44)
If the (8-3) Titans were at or even near full strength at this point, you’d have to think they’d be favored heading into New England. However, it’s an unenviable task to go into Foxborough short-handed against a surging (7-4) Patriots team. Even at 100%, this was not going to be a gimme type of game for Tennessee. With A.J. Brown joining the ever-growing list of guys who won’t play, it’s difficult to see how the Titans can compete in this one. A win wouldn’t just give the Pats the AFC East lead back, it would also make them the #1 team in the conference and you can bet your ass that Bill Belichick is well aware of the situation and will have his team ready. I’m not going to overthink this one.
Pick: Patriots | ATS: Patriots -7 | O/U: Under 43.5
(+120) Jets at (-140) Texans (-2.5, o/u 44.5)
This game features two 2-8 teams as both look to keep the other in the cellar. The Jets’ two wins are respectable, beating both the Bengals and the Titans, while the Texans have bookended their 8-game losing streak with wins orchestrated by a healthy Tyrod Taylor. He didn’t look great in his first game back but, aside from that, T2 has done a great job under center in Houston. Both teams are near the bottom of the league in total and scoring defense and neither offense is striking fear into anyone. It looks like the Jets will have their starting QB, Zach Wilson, back for this game and WR Corey Davis is trending towards playing, but their starting RB Michael Carter is on injured reserve. Houston has their share of guys on IR as well, but they seem to be more in tune with who they are when Taylor is under center.
Pick: Texans | ATS: Texans -2.5 | O/U: Over 44.5
(-200) Eagles at (+170) Giants (+3.5, o/u 45.5)
There’s nothing quite the rivalry games in the NFC East. Last year, the whole division was abysmal and it seemed like no team actually wanted to win it. This season, Dallas jumped out to a huge lead but back-to-back losses have changed the conversation. The (5-6) Eagles still have some work to do but could win up in a good spot to challenge for the division with a win Sunday. The (3-7) Giants are on thin ice, but they are used to it by now and a win would put them a half-game back of the Eags. Jordan Howard is out for Philly but New York’s injury report is much worse. Wide receiver Sterling Shephard and FS Logan Ryan are out, WR Kadarius Toney and TE Kyle Rudolph are doubtful, and RB Saquon Barkley and WR John Ross are questionable. They’ve been dealing with the injuries for a while so they are used to playing wounded, but the Eags have just been playing better lately.
Pick: Eagles | ATS: Eags -3.5 | O/U: Under 45.5
(-160) Buccaneers at (+140) Colts (+3, o/u 53)
Their record may not reflect it, but the (6-5) Colts are playing great team football at the moment and are coming off of their best game of the season last week against the Bills. The (7-3) Buccaneers got back to their winning ways last week but will still be without WR Antonio Brown and left guard Ali Marpet will be out as well. Perhaps more worrisome, NT Vita Vea and inside LB Devin White are questionable and we saw what Jonathan Taylor did to a Buffalo team missing their starters in those positions. Tampa Bay has the best rush defense in the league but you’ve still gotta get Taylor involved if you’re the Colts, you can’t just concede the run. The Bucs didn’t look special in the first half last week vs the Giants and that kind of game won’t cut it in Indy. Something’s gotta give here and if the Colts can slow down Brady even a little bit and avoid the costly mistakes, they’ll have a real shot to win this game.
Pick: Bucs | ATS: Colts +3| O/U: Over 53
(-130) Falcons at (+110) Jaguars (+2, o/u 46)
The (4-6) Falcons are technically still alive in the NFC Wild Card race, but they looked anything but alive when they got shut out by the Patriots last Thursday night. There are a lot of growing pains for a bad team trying to reach the next level and the (2-8) Jaguars are right in the middle of that. I’ve seen improvement from them but that doesn’t always translate into wins either, but it shows that they are trying. Sadly, they just lost WR and kick electric return man, Jamal Agnew, for the rest of the season. Top cornerback Shaquill Griffin is out as well so it’s going to be on their defensive front to create the kind of pressure they did against the Bills. Atlanta may get WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson back, which gives their offense all of its current layers. If he doesn’t play or isn’t himself, we could see the ATL offense continue to struggle. I’m feeling the Jags at home in this one.
Pick: Jaguars | ATS: Jags +2 | O/U: Under 46
(-135) Panthers at (+115) Dolphins (+2, o/u 42)
This is another one of those coin toss games. The (5-6) Panthers are in pretty decent shape in regards to the playoff picture while the (4-7) Dolphins are trying to make a push to get inside the bubble. Miami has won three-in-a-row after their 1-7 start and recently signed RB Phillip Lindsay since their WR corps is decimated. In their win over the Ravens, they showed their defense has the speed and talent to handle a mobile QB with plenty of weapons and that bodes well heading into this matchup. Their defense is dead last in terms of yards allowed, but they’ve played better lately. Carolina has the better defense on paper and looked great through the first month of the season. However, they’re giving up more than 23-points-per-game since starting 3-0 and have gone 2-6 since. In Carolina’s wins, the defense is only giving up a little more than 10-ppg and Miami typically doesn’t score that much. Carolina has the best player on the field in Christian McCaffrey and that helps a lot in what could be a close game.
Pick: Panthers | ATS: Panthers -2 | O/U: Over 42
(+160) Steelers at (-190) Bengals (-4.5, o/u 44)
Both the (5-4-1) Steelers and (6-4) Bengals are right in the thick of things in the AFC hunt. The AFC North race is pretty crazy as every team has a winning record and they all play one another this week to make things more interesting. The Bengals went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers back in Week 3, but that seems like an entire season ago. Cincy is 4-3 since that game and PIT is 4-2-1 so the rematch comes at an opportune time for both teams. Most importantly for the Steelers, T.J. Watt is back for this game though Joe Haden is out and that’ll be an issue in coverage but they are healthier than they were on defense in the first meeting. Tight end Eric Ebron is out too but they’ve already moved on from him. The Bengals are pretty healthy coming off an impressive showing against the Raiders. Pittsburgh is coming off a valiant effort against the Chargers where they almost rallied from 17-pts down in the 4th quarter. This Bengals team is still young and learning how to win consistently and I like the Steelers to cover and maybe even get this one back.
Pick: Steelers | ATS: Steelers +4.5 | O/U: Over 44.5
(-145) Chargers at (+125) Broncos (+2.5, o/u 47)
This is another extremely close game in an AFC West showdown. The Chiefs have risen from the ashes to reclaim the #1 spot in the division, but it’s still within reach for both the (6-4) Chargers and the (5-5) Broncos. From what I’ve seen, the Bolts are the better team but I thought that last season as well and they still lost in Denver. The Broncos just extended contracts for WRs Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick so they seem to understand their new identity but Teddy Bridgewater is 17th in passing yards, so they aren’t quite there just yet. Justin Herbert has had a very nice sophomore season for the Bolts and ranks near the top of the league in all the big categories. Bridgewater gets sacked nearly twice as often as Herbert and you know the Chargers are going to make that a point of emphasis with their 4th ranked pass defense but the Broncos are right there with them at #5. There’s a path to victory for the Broncos via the ground game as Los Angeles is exceedingly bad on run defense, but these games often come down to quarterback play and I have to favor Herbert there.
Pick: Chargers | ATS: Chargers -2.5| O/U: Over 47
(+145) Vikings at (-170) 49ers (-3.5, o/u 49)
It’s slightly weird to see the 49ers favored by more than a FG after the Vikings just took out the #1 team in the NFC (Green Bay) last week. The Niners did beat the Rams convincingly two weeks ago and have back-to-back wins to get right back into the race. It looks like RB Elijah Mitchell is going to play despite injury and that’s good news going up against one of the worst run defenses in the league. That hasn’t been helped with DT Dalvin Tomlinson being ruled out and DE Everson Griffen going to IR for non-football-related reasons with Danielle Hunter already on IR. We saw how powerful the SF ground attack can be against the Rams, and I expect a similar approach here. Minnesota has the better passing attack and they aren’t far behind in the run game either, but the total offenses are fairly equal. The Niners turn the ball over more than twice as much and that’s not going to get the job done. You know the Vikes feel like they can beat anyone after last week and I’m sure the Niners felt the same way two weeks ago. This is a tough game to pick, but I would tend to favor the Niners’ defense here.
Pick: 49ers | ATS: Vikings +3.5 | O/U: Over 49
(-130) Rams at (+110)Packers (+1.5, o/u 47)
It’s another big matchup in America’s Game of the Week as the (7-3) Rams look to get back on track against the (8-3) Packers. This is a rematch of last year’s divisional-round playoff game in which the Pack dominated against what was the best defense in the league last year. The Rams defense isn’t anywhere near that level this season and it’s surprising to see them favored on the road after the way they’ve looked in recent weeks. I expect Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. to have a more impactful game this time out but I still can’t view them as favorites. Yes Aaron Rodgers is dealing with some toe injury and didn’t practice, but he’s been around the block plenty and they’re potentially getting Aaron Jones back as well. The injuries to T David Bakhtiari and CB Kevin King are more concerning. Ultimately, Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford is 7-13 vs the Packers, 4-12 vs Rodgers, and 3-7 at Lambeau.
Pick: Packers | ATS: Packer +1.5 | O/U: Over 47
(+155) Browns at (-180) Ravens (-3.5, o/u 46)
The (6-5) Browns have not looked good at all since they smashed the Bengals 3 weeks ago. They only managed 13-points against the Lions and nearly lost the game in the process. However, this is still a huge game against the division-leading (7-3) Ravens. Baltimore is drowning in nagging injuries but most of their questionable guys will show up for this Sunday night showdown. They still have the best player on the field in Lamar Jackson and he’s been back as a full participant in practice after the illness. Cleveland will get Kareem Hunt back, but he hasn’t played in about a month so he may not be back to full speed just yet. Plus, the Ravens have one of the best run defenses in the league so the burden will surely be on Baker Mayfield.
Pick: Ravens | ATS: Ravens -3.5 | O/U: Over 46
(-110) Seahawks at (-110) Washington (PK, o/u 46.5)
The week comes to a close with the ultimate pick-em game as the odds are dead even. (3-7) Seattle has their backs majorly against the wall after dismal performances in their last two and any potential playoff aspirations hanging in the balance. They were already dealing with injuries but RB Rashad Penny is out and so is guard Damien Lewis and backup lineman Jamarco Jones while CB Tre Brown was sent to IR. (4-6) Washington is without two of their starting lineman C Tyler Larsen and RT Sam Cosmi as well but they could have WR Curtis Samuel and TE Logan Thomas returning. Russell Wilson is 10-2 on Monday Night Football and he needs to perform this week against a Washington defense that’s allowed the 2nd most passing TDs on the year. The Seattle defense has played better but their run D has been weak and Washington will test it.
Pick: Seahawks | ATS: N/A | O/U: Over 46.5