It’s always nice to get blasted horribly to start the week with the Thursday game as Baltimore lost 22-10 to Miami, but it just goes to show that no team is invincible. That was a game the Ravens were supposed to win with room to spare, but credit to the Dolphins for finding a way to stack back-to-back wins for the first time this season.
I didn’t get to see the game because I was gifted last-minute tickets to Hamilton so, ya know, priorities. Anyway, I can’t talk about what I saw so I’m going to just look at some numbers.
Miami apparently figured something out over the past couple of weeks and carried over some defensive cues they picked up in the second Bills game. I thought the Fins were outgunned, outmanned…outnumbered, out-planned but they needed their left-hand man. That’ll be the only Hamilton joke, I promise. Anyway, Jacoby Brissett started the game but got hurt early in the second half and Tua had to step in with his busted finger. By the looks of things, he wasn’t doing too much better but I did see him hit Jaylen Waddle for a big play to set up a field goal and he did lead Miami on their only offensive TD drive of the game, but the story was the defense.
The Dolphins held the Ravens to less than 100-yards rushing and certainly made it look like Latavius Murray was missed for Baltimore, but they also sacked Lamar Jackson four times, picked him off in the end zone, and returned a Sammy Watkins’ fumble for a TD. Effort goes a long way in the NFL and when one team has the energy advantage, we’ve seen what can happen over the last few weeks.
If it’s going to be one of those weeks, I don’t know what good my research and predictions are going to do…but I do it anyway. Let’s take a look at the rest of Week 10 around the league.
(+360) Jaguars at (-475) Colts (-10.5, o/u 47.5)
A lot has changed since the Jags got their only win of last during Week 1 against the Colts, but the perception that Indy is the better team hasn’t. They are favored by 10.5-points at home heading into this game and maybe that’s a little generous after Jacksonville’s performance against the Bills last week but the Colts have outscored the Jags by more than 100-pts on the season. Believe it or not, JAX has actually won 6 of the last 10 meetings between the team. However, all 4 of their losses have come in Indy. It’s a key division game so it’ll be hard-fought and both teams give up points, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jags cover.
Pick: Colts | Vs Spread: Jags +10.5 | O/U: Under 47.5
(+115) Browns at (-135) Patriots (-2.5, o/u 45)
The hit is out after the video of Mac Jones twisting up and injury a Carolina defender went viral last week. That’s the wrong kind of fuel to give to a Browns defense with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. Rest assured they are going to go the extra mile to show Jones their appreciation. Cleveland suddenly looked like their playoff form again after finally moving on from OBJ, but they’ll have to do it without Nick Chubb this week (Covid list). Fortunately for them, D’Ernest Johnson is a very capable player himself and he’ll have to prove that his other start this season wasn’t a fluke. New England is without their starting RB Damien Harris as well, so it’ll really be up to Jones to stay upright. I didn’t trust my gut with CLE last week and maybe I’m just being reactionary, but I think they have the better defense and good enough ground game to get the job done.
Pick: Browns | Vs Spread: Browns +2.5 | O/U: Under 45
(+320) Falcons at (-420) Cowboys (-8.5, o/u 54.5)
The Cowboys should bounce back after a disappointing and frankly embarrassing loss to the Broncos in Week 9. Denver also has better personnel than Atlanta, in my opinion, so I can sort of see how that happened. Meanwhile, the Falcons have snuck their way to 4-4 beating the Saints and playing some good football in the process. They are 3-1 on the road and they get to play underdogs again with very little to lose going into Dallas. All signs point to the Cowboys being the better team, but the Falcons have been in some close ones over the last month.
Pick: Cowboys | Vs Spread: Falcons +8.5 | O/U: Under 54.5
(-700) Bills at (+475) Jets (+12.5, o/u 47.5)
The Bills also need a bounce-back game in the worst way after their ugly loss to the Jags last week. It’s hard to imagine Buffalo being favored by nearly two touchdowns after only scoring 6-pts last week, especially with the Jets averaging over 30-points in the Mike White era. Oh yeah, and he’s back by the way. New York’s defense is bottom ten overall and 27th vs the run, so if there was ever a get-right game for the Bills’ running game, this would be it. Buffalo’s offense has looked a little funky since coming back from the bye week so this will be a good litmus test. I fully expect the Bills to win if they don’t overlook their opponents, but I’m less confident in the cover right now.
Pick: Bills | Vs Spread: Jets +12.5 | O/U: Under 47.5
(+130) Saints at (-150) Titans (-3, o/u 44)
This looked like it was going to be a showdown between two of the league’s premier running backs, but Derrick Henry was already lost for the regular season and now Alvin Kamara is out on the Covid list. That means it’s Mark Ingram II time. David Long Jr. who’s been a huge part of the Titans’ defense will be out and Julio Jones is back on the IR as well so it’ll be on newly signed Adrian Peterson and A.J. Brown to carry the load. The Saints just lost to the Falcons and gave up 27-points in the process and Terron Armstead is out at LT for them now as well. Maybe Tennessee is a bit overconfident after their win over the Rams, but their defense is playing really well and should give a limited Saints’ offense trouble.
Pick: Titans | Vs Spread: Titans -3| O/U: Over 44
(-450) Buccaneers at (+350) Washington (+9.5, o/u 51)
With Washington in their bye during Week 9, I almost forgot they were around. That’s disappointing for a team that made the playoffs last season and had high hopes for this one. Tampa Bay was also in their bye, so it’s not even like Washington gets a tired Bucs team. Washington’s defense has been abysmal this season and even when they were fantastic last season, the Bucs still figured them out in the playoffs. The only real question for me is the cover. Tamps will be without Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and maybe Chris Godwin, so I don’t know if they can move the ball as consistently as they would like. Their defense is looking healthier(ish) and their defensive front might dominate, but it was a close game when these teams met in the playoffs last year.
Pick: Bucs | Vs Spread: Washington +9.5 | O/U: Under 51
(+300) Lions at (-380) Steelers (-8, o/u 42.5)
Ben Roethlisberger popped on the Covid list and he’ll miss this game against the Lions, so the question is: are the Steelers still the better team even without him? Mason Rudolph has played extensively in Big Ben’s absence over the past few seasons, so he’ll likely be ok in there. Plus, it’s November when the ground game and defense begin to take center stage and the Steelers definitely have those two things. Chase Claypool is also out for PIT so I’m hoping Diontae Johnson has a nice game for fantasy reasons. Detroit is in shambles. They’ve given up 110-points more than they’ve scored during their 0-8 campaign so far. There’s almost nothing on the line for the Lions while a win puts the Steelers on top of the division and they’re at home…I just don’t see PIT losing.
Pick: Steelers | Vs Spread: Steelers -8 | O/U: Under 42.5
(+145) Vikings at (-170) Chargers (-3, o/u 53)
This game is exceedingly tough to pick because these teams are like mirror images of one another. Both have underperforming defenses and similar offensive builds and that’s why it’s the second closest game on the books. It feels like one of those games where I want to take the Vikings like I almost did last week, but they ultimately lost a close one in Week 9. The Bolts barely beat the Eagles so that’s not the most enticing pick either. I’d think Minny has the experience and leadership advantage but their 3-5 record indicates that it’s not really a big advantage, if at all. Let’s just hope Mike Williams gets involved for the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers | Vs Spread: Vikings +3 | O/U: Over 53
(+400) Panthers at (-550) Cardinals (-10.5, o/u 44)
Cam Newton is back in Carolina, but he’s still listed as the 2nd string QB for the time being. He may wind up starting, or he may find his way into the game when and if it gets out of control. Arizona has shown that they are a handful, even without J.J. Watt on defense and they won easily last week without Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins, and they did it on the road against a desperate 49ers team. The Panthers got smashed at home by the Patriots, so I can’t back them with any confidence. However, they might find a way to win this game if Newton and CMC can find their groove and feed off the energy of Cam’s return.
Pick: Cards | Vs Spread: Panthers +10.5 | O/U: Over 44
(+150) Seahawks at (-175) Packers (-3, o/u 49)
It’s about to get Danger-Russ as the Seahawks look to keep their playoff aspirations on life support in Green Bay. Russell Wilson is back from finger surgery and he is looking to make a big splash. Aaron Rodgers is also back, coming off the Covid list just in time for a pretty damn good rivalry between two of the NFC’s elite teams from the past decade. In the Wilson-Rodgers era, these teams have met eight times and they are 4-4 with neither team losing at home. So, you know we are going to be in for a good game. The Packers’ defense has done a great job the past couple of weeks while their offense was short-handed, but Russ is a different story. Given their records and how their seasons have gone to this point, seeing GB as only 3-pt favorites tells you a lot about the impact of Wilson. This is going to be a good one! Green Bay is the smart choice, but stranger things have happened.
Pick: Packers | Vs Spread: Seahawks +3 | O/U: Under 49
(+110) Eagles at (-130) Broncos (-1.5, o/u 45.5)
This is the closest game on the books this week. Denver just whooped Dallas and the Eagles barely lost to the Chargers, so the Broncos as rightly favored at home. The small spread, however, indicates a serious lack of faith. The Eags have let me down repeatedly this season and their offense is often painful to watch, but the Broncos injury report isn’t pretty at all. Two O-line starters are out with 10 other guys listed as questionable. I was already thinking Philly could pull an upset here with the dynamic ability of Jalen Hurts and their front seven on defense. The Broncos’ defense was elevated statistically by beating up on winless teams for the first month of the season, so it’s anyone’s guess who’s actually better on D. I am going to go with my gut on this one.
Pick: Eagles | Vs Spread: Eags +1.5 | O/U: Over 45.5
(-145) Chiefs at (+125) Raiders (+2.5, o/u 52)
This is certainly one of the more intriguing matchups of the week. Just looking at the season trajectories, I would say the Raiders have been the better team. However, with each week bringing some new piece of drama to the table for the Raiders, can they just focus and play football? That isn’t the question I would want to be asking heading into the Sunday night showdown with the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is 5-1 vs the Raiders, but that one came last season and both games were close in 2020. KC is 8-2 against Vegas/Oakland in the last 10 and 13-3 dating back to 2013 when Andy Reid took over as head coach of the Chiefs. Despite their poor start, they are right in the thick of it and it starts by getting a W on Sunday night. This should be a good one too.
Pick: Chiefs | Vs Spread: Chiefs -2.5| O/U: Under 52
(-190) Rams at (+160) 49ers (+4, o/u 49)
Fresh of a surprising loss of their own, the Rams head to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers. Despite the Rams having a much better season, this is no layup. The Niners have won the last four in a row vs the Rams, including a season sweep last year when the Rams had the best defense in the NFL and went to the playoffs. San Francisco is actually 7-3 against the Rams in their last 10 games. I don’t think there’s much debate about the Rams being the better team this season, so it’s all about matchups. The Niners had a golden opportunity to get a division game from the top dog in the NFC last week, but couldn’t beat a backup QB. They also got eaten alive on the ground and couldn’t get their own run game going. The Niners’ run defense isn’t good, but their pass defense is and the Rams want to throw the ball. However, they did just lose Robert Woods after adding Odell Beckham Jr. Los Angeles probably won’t opt for the ground and pound route but Arizona was able to dominate the 49ers there and survive 9-penalties in the process.
Pick: Rams | Vs Spread: Rams -4| O/U: Over 49