Got off to a good playoff start last week, going 6-0 on game picks but it’s going to get a lot harder this week as the matchups intensify and we didn’t all agree on the podcast.
(+175) Bengals at (-210) Titans (-4, o/u 48)
The Story: The Bengals earned their first playoff win since 1991 with their victory over the Raiders in the Wild Card round of the playoffs and second-year man Joe Burrow lead the way in his first playoff start. Just winning the division and getting through the first round of the playoffs is a big deal for Cincy, but the Titans have been here four of the last five seasons. Despite a long list of injuries throughout the season, Tennessee still found ways to win and locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Few teams could have used the first-round bye any more than the Titans and the biggest to come from the extra time off is the return of Derrick Henry.
The Matchup: The Bengals are the better offensive team in terms of yard-per-game, yards-per-play, and points per game, but that advantage lies in the passing game with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. They have an excellent receiving corps overall, but Burrow has had an MVP-caliber season and Chase has been nothing short of exceptional on his way to a probably unanimous Rookie of the Year. While Cincy has 1,000-yards and 14-TDs more through the air, the Titans have a decided edge on the ground and they have done it without Derrick Henry for the majority of the season.
Tennessee was still 5th in the league in rushing, averaging 141.4-yards-per-game thanks to 4.4-yards-per-carry that’s good for 12th best. In Henry’s absence, D’Onta Foreman only started three games but ran for 566-yards at 4.3-YPC and 3-TDs. So, despite their star running missing half the season, the power football identity of the Titan not only remained intact, it continued to thrive. It’s not that the Bengals can’t run the ball, they are averaging over 100-YPG on the ground, but it’s definitely a more productive part of a Titans team that plays smash-mouth football.
Defensively, it’s a pretty close call. Both of these teams are near the bottom of the league in terms of pass defense and as vulnerable as the Titans’ pass defense is said to be, it’s still better than the Bengals’ in all the key places. Tennessee’s pass defense is predicated on pressure and they’ve been able to get that against a lot of top-tier, playoff competition such as the Bills, Chiefs, and Rams (all wins). Burrow was also the most-sacked QB in the league during the season which may not bode well. These teams both have Top-5 rushing defenses but the Titans have the edge in all the important metrics there as well, allowing less than 85-YPG. The injury to Cincinnati DT Larry Ogunjobi is a big loss inside and MLB Germaine Pratt still being listed as out is a huge hit to the middle of the Bengals’ defense.
Cincy has the edge in QB play with Big-Game Burrow, but Ryan Tannehill is a capable veteran who has been solid for the Titans despite playing without A.J. Brown and/or Julio Jones and/or Derrick Henry in some capacity, basically all season long. With all those guys back in the lineup and an extra week of prep under their belts, it’s a more formidable group than was reflected during the regular season.
The Verdict: The Bengals are definitely fun to watch, but styles make matchups and I like the Titans style for this game. Even though Cincy won their first-round game against Las Vegas, that wasn’t an easy game. The Titans are better defensively than the Raiders and more efficient offensively. The line moved an extra half-point in the Titans’ favor as did the money line but, regardless, I liked the Titans’ physicality at home to be the difference.
Pick: Titans | ATS: Titans -4 | O/U: Over 48 | Final: TEN 28 – 23 CIN
(+200) 49ers at (-240) Packers (-5.5, o/u 47.5)
The Story: San Francisco just went into Dallas as underdogs and came away with a huge win by bringing the fight to the Cowboys, setting the tone early, and completely taking Dallas out of their element. The Packers have been waiting in the wings as the No. 1 seed in the NFC, making sure they are as healthy as possible heading into this matchup. Aaron Rodgers may be the odds-on-favorite to win the MVP, but he’s 0-3 against the 49ers and that includes a road loss in 2019.
The Matchup: These teams met back in Week 3 with the Packers hanging on to win 30-28, but the Niners were very shorthanded at running back which forced Jimmy G to throw the ball 40 times. That’s not the formula to the Niners’ success and their run game will be a much bigger factor this time around. Aaron Rodgers had his typically efficient performance and Davante Adams feasted in that matchup going 12/132/1 on 18-targets. It’ll be Emmanuel Moseley in coverage again and they won’t get away with the kinds of looks they showed the Cowboys, but the focus has to be on limiting Adams as much as possible.
Both of these teams have Top-10 offenses but it’s probably a bit of a surprise to see the Niners slightly ahead of the Packers in total offense. Part of that is due to the fact that the Packers play from in front quite a bit while the Niners have had to rally late in games because they turn the ball over about twice as much, but the yards-per-play is in San Francisco’s favor by a little bit as well. Despite being a tad behind in yardage, Green Bay has the edge in scoring which speaks to their (Rodgers’) efficiency. That advantage comes mostly from the passing game (Rodgers again) but SF has almost twice as many ground scores. While I have to give the edge to the Pack offensively, it’s not a landslide at all.
Both teams also have Top-10 defenses with the 49ers having a slight edge in scoring and yardage, both air and ground. San Francisco has the #6 pass defense and has a slight statistical edge over the Packers’ 10th ranked group, but SF does a better job getting after the QB. They are 6th in sacks despite having the 4th lowest blitz percentage which is a big key to defending Rodgers. Another key advantage is the run defense for the Niners. While the YPG and total yards are close, SF is among the best in terms of YPC ranked 6th while Green Bay is among the worst, ranked 30th. While it’s not a dominant edge, SF gets the tip of the hat on defense.
The Niners got some great news as it looks like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are both good to go after suffering injuries in the Cowboys game. Jimmy G is dealing with ligament issues in his thumb and also a shoulder injury that he suffered in Dallas. He was a full participant in practice and has no injury designation, but it’s something to keep an eye on. The Packers will likely be without Marquez Valdes-Scantling who’s dealing with a back injury, so it’ll be up to Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb to step up. Green Bay could get a boost if LT David Bakhtiari plays, but he’s only started one game all season so don’t hold your breath on that one.
As is the case with many big games, it’s going to come down to QB play in some form or another. You have to give Rodgers a decided advantage there, but the Niners have been his nemesis. It’ll be key for the Pack to make sure Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon take some pressure off the Niners’ pass rush. The scoring offense and defense is basically a push, but one thing to pay attention to is that the Packers are +13 in turnovers differential while the Niners are -4. The team that turns the ball over less usually wins the game SF tends to give one away, more often than not.
The Verdict: I know the history with these teams and the 0-3 playoff monkey that’s on Rodgers’ back in the playoffs and, honestly, I want to see the Niners win again. However, San Francisco has a tendency to play with fire in terms of letting games be close that shouldn’t. Kyle Shanahan leaves the back door open quite a bit and it damn near cost them a game they were dominating just last week. You can’t afford to play like that against the Packers who haven’t lost at home this season.
Pick: Packers | ATS: 49ers +5.5 | O/U: Over 47 | Final: GB 26 – 24 SF
(+125) Rams at (-145) Buccaneers (-3, o/u 48)
The Story: Matthew Stafford finally won the first playoff game of his career in his 13th season, leading the Rams to a smooth-sailing victory over the Cardinals. The Bucs got up 31-0 on the Eagles before taking their foot off the gas and Tom Brady and Co. are poised for another run at the SB. As a result, these teams get to rematch their Week 3 game where the Rams won 34-24. Both teams look a lot different than they did back then and the Bucs were decimated defensively and lost Rob Gronkowski on a vicious (but clean) hit by Terrell Lewis (below). Rest assured the Bucs and the Rams both remember this game.
The Matchup: That Week 3 game was very interesting. It was close through the first half and a missed FG at the end of the half by the Bucs and a dropped, would-be pick-six by Jamel Deam deep in Rams’ territory could have swung the game differently, but the Rams’ defense took over in the second half. Tom Brady still threw for 432-yards on 41/55 passing but they were trailing so big in the second half there was almost no choice. Matthew Stafford took full advantage of a short-handed Bucs’ defense, going 27/38 for 343-yards with 4-TDs. With the Bucs’ defense back at full strength, I’ll be curious to see how things shake out, especially with Odell Beckham Jr. finding his groove in LA.
The absence of Chris Godwin is going to play a factor this time around, but even with him out of the lineup for the last month of the season, the Tampa Bay offense is still formidable. They’re averaging more than 30-PPG without Godwin, but the Rams’ offense is Top-10 as well. Tampa still has a reasonable edge in points scored and yards, plus Brady edges Stafford all across the board. The run game was pretty much a push but Tampa is hoping Leonard Fournette can play while LA is featuring a fresh Cam Akers. The Bucs’ offense might be a little more one-dimensional right now, which is big for the Rams, but they still have TB12 and he’s never out of it.
Defensively it’s interesting because neither of these high-profile units finished in the Top-10 overall, despite clearly being two of the best defenses in the league. They are neighbors at 21st & 22nd against the pass and not too far off against the run either, with the Bucs having a slight edge in both. Tampa’s defense generates more turnovers, gives up fewer points, and has a higher pressure rate, but they blitz the most to get there. Turnovers are the name of the game in the NFL and it’s going to be on the Bucs’ defense to generate those against the QB who tied for the league lead in interceptions.
Running back Ronald Jones and WR Breshad Perriman are both out for Tampa Bay and C Ryan Jensen and RT Tristan Wirfs are both dinged up from the Wild Card game. Wirfs was in bad shape and if he can’t go, it’ll be a big deal as back Josh Wells is also questionable. On the other side, LT Andrew Whitworth is out for the Rams and the Bucs are sure to target Stafford’s blindside with relentless pressure.
The Verdict: I know the Rams are the sexy pick to pull the upset here and some lines have moved down a half-point in their favor, but I’m not picking against Brady with Stafford on the other side. No disrespect to the Rams, but I think the Bucs defense is more dynamic and faster at full strength. It will be tougher on Brady without Godwin, Brown, Jones, Perriman, and maybe even Grayson, but watch for Scottie Miller and Giovani Bernard to factor in.
Pick: Bucs | ATS: Bucs -3 | O/U: Over 48 | Final: TB 28 – 24 LAR
(+110) Bills at (-130) Chiefs (-1.5, o/u 54)
The Story: The Bills’ potential road to the Super Bowl was always going to go through Kansas City and, after demolishing the Patriots in the Wild Card round, Buffalo gets their shot at revenge from last year’s AFC title game. The Chiefs rallied from a slow start last week to starch the Steelers in their own Wild Card matchup and they are looking to get a little payback for a regular-season home loss against the Bills back in Week 5.
The Matchup: The Bills won pretty one-sidedly in Week 5, 38-20, as they used that chip on their shoulder to their full advantage. Josh Allen dominated with his arms and with his legs (below), making sure to show that he was the biggest weapon on the field. The Chiefs were missing some key pieces on defense in that game, and they were also in the midst of their early-season struggles. While it was an important win for the Bills at the time, they can’t hang their hats on that and both teams look a lot different at this point in the season.
Both teams had their struggles but shored up their weaknesses along the way. The Bills finally found their preferred recipe along the O-line and the run game has come along with it. The Chiefs nabbed Melvin Ingram in trade and moved Chris Jones back inside and the defense has improved quite a lot as a result.
The Bills and the Chiefs wield Top-5 offenses in this game and that’s why it’s the main event of the weekend. Buffalo scored three more points on the season while the Chiefs averaged 14 more YPG, so let’s call it a push on offense. The injury report looks good for both teams too with The Hyphen Clyde Edwards-Helaire, rumored to be a full go, so we’ll just skip that.
Defensively, the Bills led the league in total defense, scoring defense, and pass defense. In sitting in on a Chiefs’ Twitter space, I got to hear that they aren’t believers in the Bills’ defense and that it’s inflated by playing a soft schedule. The schedule was weak in some regards but the Bills posted multiple shutouts against teams that did have solid wins against other AFC playoff teams. So, while the number benefit from the quality of competition the Bills also have the lowest YPP allowed while the Chiefs sit at 31st (27th in total defense). The Chiefs’ defense may have improved greatly, but they still give up a lot of points to good offenses, as evidenced in the Bengals game two weeks ago. No matter how you slice it, the Bills have the better defense and the offense to take the fight to the Chiefs where they are weakest. However, the Bills pass protection has to hold up or it’ll be a repeat of the AFC title game.
Quarterback play is always going to play a huge factor and both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have turned in MVP-caliber seasons in their own right, the competition is just very stiff. Mahomes has a slight edge in the passing numbers while Allen has the edge on the ground. This idea that the comparison between the two isn’t close is pretty laughable. If you line up their output for the past two seasons, they both have strong cases but the total TDs actually favor Allen. That’s not to say one guy is better than the other, they are both good and have different strengths. For the way this matchup is stacked, I like Allen’s physicality and run game.
The Verdict: Chiefs fans have reason to feel good playing this game at home but, in listening to their reasoning, it’s pretty evident that they don’t watch the Bills play. That tells me there isn’t much respect there. Rest assured the Bills and their fan base watched the Chiefs and respect them as opponents. After all, this Bills team was built specifically to beat KC and the first test of that went Buffalo’s way. The Bills are deeper offensively and defensively, the only thing left is to go bring the fight to them from the opening kickoff and not give an inch. I expect a hard-fought game but the time is now. Go Bills!
Pick: Bills | ATS: Bills +1.5 | O/U: Over 54| Final: BUF 34 – 27 KC
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