I initially set out to do all the previews for the Saturday games together, but as I started to pull at the thread for this Bills-Colts game, it turned into it’s own thing. So, here we are and I’ll get into the other two Saturday Wild Card games separately.
(AFC #7) Indianapolis Colts at (AFC #2) Buffalo Bills (-7, 51)
Breakdown: For the first time since 1996, the Buffalo Bills will host a playoff game. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s decision to use this game as a pilot-program (with pre-game testing and post-game contact tracing in place) for re-opening businesses in the state may prove to be a catastrophic mistake, but I’m sure the 6,700 fans in attendance will be thrilled to be there nonetheless.
If you’ve been following along throughout the season, you’ll know I’m aligned with Bills Mafia but have also been hesitant to anoint them prematurely. That said, they are playing their best football right now and coming off a 56-26 annihilation of a very good, young Dolphins team that was basically in the playoffs until they got wiped out by the Bills. Miami boasted a 10-win season and one of the hottest defenses in the league but, after a strong first quarter, they got absolutely wiped out in all phases of the game even after Buffalo had pulled their starters.
On the other side of the coin, with their playoff lives on the line, the Colts defeated the Jaguars 28-14. Indy was up 20-0 at one point, but Jacksonville got back in it during the second half and they did it without star players RB James Robinson and WR DJ Chark in the lineup. It was 20-14 in the 4th quarter before Jonathan Taylor capped off his monster day with a 35-yard touchdown run. While his 253-yards were impressive, the Jags were already giving up 145-YPG rushing (30th) beforehand, so JAX getting killed on the ground was expected. Jacksonville’s defense was also giving up more than 30-PPG but the Colts didn’t quite get there though. In the NFL, you’re only as good as your last game.
It’s not just recency bias from the last game of the season, Buffalo has played the better competition all season long and had a better overall record in the process. Buffalo’s opponents’ total win percentage is 51%, while it’s 44% for the Colts. The Bills’ OWP in their wins is 47% and it’s 69% in their losses, while Indy’s OWP is 38% in their wins and 58% in their losses. Basically, on average, the Bills play the better teams, win more often, and lose to better competition. The Colts’ have the edge in point differential with an average margin of victory of 12.9-pts while their AMD is 10.6-points. Buffalo has a similar AMV of 12.5-pts but a lopsided early season loss to the Titans (which both teams have experienced) puts their AMD at 12.3-pts. Strength of Schedule Edge: Bills
Winners of their last six (tied for the longest streak in the league), Buffalo has been the hotter team of late and won each of those six games by double figures. If not for the Hail Murray, that streak would be 10-straight. Indy went 6-2 over the final eight weeks of the season, but their defense hasn’t been as good down the stretch. Over the first half of the season, they had a Top-5 scoring defense allowing only 20-PPG. Over the second half, that number grew to 25-PPG which is almost a full TD difference. Comparatively, the Bills defense was giving up 25-PPG over the first eight games but brought that number down to 22-PPG over the last eight. I don’t deny the Colts have a good defensive group but they are not as dominant as the early part of the season suggested and Buffalo’s D has started to resemble their dominant unit from the past couple of seasons. Heat Check Edge: Bills
Indy definitely has a stout run defense (2nd best) and hasn’t given up a 100-yd rusher since King Henry steamrolled them for 229-yds six weeks ago. Buffalo’s 17th ranked run defense isn’t awful, but the Bills primarily attack through the air and get the lead which makes it more difficult to run on them. However, the perception that the Bills can’t run the football themselves is inaccurate. Both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have higher than a 4.2-YPC and combined for 1,168-yards and 6-TDs on the season, which is on par with Taylor’s season. Indy only averages 17-YPG more and during Buffalo’s 6-game win streak to end the season, they rushed for over 100-yards four times and came close the other two. Plus the Bills have Josh Allen who also ran for more than 400-yds and 8-TDs from the QB position. The Colts definitely are more effective on the ground but it’s because they have to be and this idea that the Colts have a dominant advantage on the ground is a myth. Rushing Offense/Defense Edge: Colts
Realistically, both these teams like to throw the football. BUF ranks 3rd in passing yards while IND comes in at 11th. However, the Bills have a massive 40-24 edge in passing TDs and better marks in QB-rating, TD%, and INT%. Perhaps more importantly, Buffalo has the best 3rd & 4th down conversion rate in the NFL and has a higher TD% in the red zone as well. If that wasn’t enough, the Bills also rank 2nd in PPG and percentage of drives resulting in a score, 5th in average drive time, and 3rd best in average points-per-drive. There is no question that Buffalo’s offense is operating with lethal efficiency.
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None of this is to say the Colts’ passing game isn’t good, they’re competitive in most of those categories except for 3rd down conversions (22nd). That’s going to be a huge factor in this game when it comes to pass defense. Buffalo ranks 13th in yardage against while Indy ranks 20th, but the Bills also have the edge in QB-rating against, yards per completion, TD% against, QB hits, and adjusted yards per pass attempt. As this game is angling towards a shootout, all this kind of stuff is going to add up. Offensive Efficiency Edge: Bills
Then there’s the X-factor. Josh Allen is having an MVP season and he’s a far more dynamic threat than Philip Rivers. The Colts’ veteran does have the experience edge but his playoff record isn’t all that impressive. In 11 games he’s 5-6 with a career postseason completion rate that is under 60%, has a 1.4:1 TD/INT ratio, and an 84.2 QB-rating. Allen is 0-1 in the playoffs, but he just got his first taste of it last season. He also had the Bills up 16-0 in that game and had put them in a position to win before a whack penalty set them back. Buffalo also brings the league leader in receptions and receiving yards, Stefon Diggs, to the party and he’s going to be a handful for whoever gets tasked with guarding him. Overall, the Bills appear to have better team speed when you look at the skill positions. Dynamic Edge: Bills
One thing to consider is both Diggs and Cole Beasley are listed as questionable on the final injury report for this game. I can’t see Diggs sitting this one out but Beasley’s usage will depend heavily on necessity. The Colts are missing their #2 cornerback Rock Ya-sin which means at least one of the Bills’ WRs is going to cause serious matchup problems. DeForest Buckner is questionable for them too, but I doubt he misses this game. Health Edge: Bills
I’m not envisioning this game as a blowout. The Colts are tough and they didn’t make it this far on accident. Frank Reich (and ex-Buffalo Bill) is a great coach and that’s something the Eagles learned the hard way in his absence this season. Sean McDermott is a fantastic coach too as evidenced by turning around a franchise that struggled for the better part of twenty years and building them into legitimate contenders in a matter of three seasons. Coaching Edge: Push
The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 30s and the Bills have already been on the field practicing this week. It’s a break for the Colts since that’s about the best weather they could have asked for heading into Buffalo in January, but it’ll still be very cold for a team that plays in a dome. Bills Mafia will have 6,700 fans in attendance and they are going to be as loud as humanly possible.
Pick: Bills
ATS: Bills -7
Over/Under: Over 51
Go Bills!