So, it turns out I needed another day to get my stuff together after the Bills crushing 34-31 loss to the Titans on Monday night. However, it’s really not the end of the world and they will go into the bye week with a reminder that they aren’t invincible and be better for it coming out the other side.
The most obvious takeaway from the game was the defense simply wasn’t good enough. Now, Tennessee did score on six-straight possessions to close out the game, and a stop on any of those likely would have been enough to get the job done for Buffalo, but I think there’s more to it than that. The Bills’ defense looked great on the Titans’ first three possessions forcing two punts and coming away with an interception. However, the Bills’ offense wasn’t converting in the red zone and had to settle for field goals, so a dominant start still resulted in only a 6-0 lead and that’s when he happened.
Perhaps I jinxed it by pointing out that Derrick Henry had never run for over 100-yards on the Bills but, after their second FG, King Henry did what he’s known for and took off for a 76-yard touchdown on the first play of the Titans’ next drive. There was an egregious hold on Jordan Poyer that went uncalled and it directly impacted the play, but the points were still on the board and Buffalo found themselves trailing 7-6 despite mostly dominating the first quarter. A lot was made of that non-call after the game because it was one of several penalties/non-calls that had a major impact on the outcome, but we’ll unpack those as we go along. Those kinds of TD runs are huge momentum vacuums and it changed the Bills’ defensive philosophy moving forward.
The Bills did what good teams do in those situations and they responded with a 7-play 72-yard TD drive of their own, as Josh Allen found his favorite target and best friend Stefon Diggs for the score to make it 13-7 Buffalo. Things were back on track despite the big play. That’s when things got particularly interesting.
Tennessee’s subsequent drive was basically dead in the water on 3rd & 8 from their 23-yard line when Julio Jones made a miraculous, toe-tap sideline catch of a ball that ricocheted of Micah Hyde’s helmet. It really was an incredible play by Julio, but Buffalo was also flagged for offsides and pass interference on Hyde on the play. The catch would stand either way, but that same call was not enforced uniformly when the Titans’ Chris Jackson did the exact same thing with even more contact to Emmanuel Sanders on a deep pass later in the game. The Bills scored a TD on that drive anyway and while the penalties were close to even on paper, that was an example of unbalanced enforcement of the rules.
Anyway, I digress. The Titans wound up getting a field goal out of the drive thanks to the catch by Jones and then they wound up with the interception off a tipped ball off the hands of Zack Moss on the Bills’ next offensive play. Tennessee cashed in the TD from only 11-yards out and just like that, they had the lead once again in a game where they really hadn’t done very much. The Bills responded with a TD once again to make it 20-17 going into the half, but it was a much closer game than it should have been considering the Bills mostly dominated. At halftime, 124/164 (75%) of the Titans’ yards came off of the two big plays from Henry and Jones and the interception.
Buffalo got the ball to start the second half and were held to another field goal, making it 23-17, but the Titans responded with a balanced drive that resulted in Henry’s second TD of the game to make 24-23 Titans. As they’d done each time before, the Bills answered right back with a TD drive. This time it was to #2 tight end Tommy Sweeney on a great throw by Allen and a double-reverse pass for 2-point conversion to make it 31-24 Bills. The Titans weren’t giving up and they would put together a field goal drive to cut it to 31-27. Despite everything that had transpired to that point, Buffalo would get the ball, with the lead, with less than 10-minutes remaining in the game.
They would punt fairly quickly and the Titans would go on an 8-play, 70-yard drive punctuated by Henry’s third TD of the game, but it was really the passing game that moved it for Tennessee. Buffalo had begun committing resources to stop Henry and playing a lot more zone, so Ryan Tannehill took advantage and hit three big passes on the play to gain some big chunks. That’s the effect of that big run from earlier in the game.
Isaiah McKenzie would return the ensuing kickoff 101-yards for the go-ahead TD, but a holding call would overturn the score and set the Bills back from the spot of the foul. Now, this is where that non-call on Poyer comes into play. The hold called here on Andre Smith was the correct call but the enforcement has to be a two-way street. Buffalo had another TD nullified thanks to a holding call on Emmanuel Sanders that would have made it 10-0. The big Henry run came right after that.
Even with that, the Bills would have about 3-minutes and all of their timeouts to go down the field and try to win the game. They went 79-yards in 8-plays but wound up needing about a half-yard after a Josh Allen scramble was overruled as short of the first down. So, on 4th & 1, rather than electing to tie the game with a field goal, Sean McDermott opted to go for it. Allen slipped a little on the snap and never got the push he needed, Dion Dawkins got blown off the spot, and he was stopped short. Buffalo turned the ball over on downs and that was the ball game.
Ultimately, I like the decision to go for it there. That’s a play that Josh makes more often than not, 13/14 up to that point I think, so I’m fine with it. It just seemed like he rushed it a little but once he got the look he wanted and that’s why he slipped. He still probably would have gotten it had he followed the line blocking to the right, but it is what it is.
While I’m fine with trying to win the game there at the end, I want to circle back to the previous possession where the Bills had the ball and the 4th quarter lead with less than 10-minutes to go in the game. These are the situational playcalling moments that haunted me last season and reared their ugly heads again. These are the moments a guy like Moss was brought in to handle: 4th quarter leads with the clock on your side. I’m not here to shit on offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, he was dealing with the loss of his grandfather heading into this game and that’s bigger than football. However, I hope he recognizes these patterns. Buffalo would throw the ball on all six plays of the drive, take less than two minutes off the clock, and give the Titans the ball with plenty of time for what wound up being the game-winning TD drive.
Performance Grade: C
I took notice and highlighted this pattern last season in my breakdowns and it nearly happened in the Divisional Round against the Colts in the playoffs last season, and it did happen against the Steelers in Week 1 this season. After this game, this game there was a lot of chatter amongst Bills Mafia on social media and, naturally, I got drawn into some of that. There’s a divide when it comes to playcalling philosophy. I always value balance but, as is customary on Twitter, I was confronted by someone arguing in favor of the pass-heavy approach with no evidence to support their position. I do my due diligence and am confident in my position, but I decided to dig further into the numbers.
| Opp. | Pass Att | Carries | Pass/Run % | Sacks Allowed | Result | 3 & Outs | Punts | Turnovers |
| PIT | 54 | 25 | 67/33 | 3 | 23-16 L | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| MIA | 33 | 30 | 55/45 | 1 | 35-0 W | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| WSH | 43 | 33 | 57/43 | 0 | 43-21 W | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| HOU | 31 | 40 | 44/56 | 1 | 40-0 W | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| KC | 26 | 28 | 48/52 | 0 | 38-20 W | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| TEN | 50 | 23 | 67/33 | 3 | 34-31 L | 1 | 2 | 2 |
This table helps show exactly why balance is important for the offense. In both games where the Bills tried to throw the ball 50+ times, they lost and blew 4th quarter leads in the process. Both of those losses, individually, also account for more sacks allowed than the other five games combined. And the common denominator in their 4-wins is a balanced offensive approach where the run share is greater than 40% of the total play selection. There are some designed QB runs in there as well some scrambles but you get the idea. My research into the data came because the person I was arguing with said that the Bills can’t/shouldn’t run because they go 3 & out every time. I know that’s not true because I had done my homework, but this person (who I won’t name) basically told me the numbers don’t matter and that I need to watch the games. Obviously, I watch the games very closely but that comment fueled me to dig deeper into the situational data.
| Drives | Total | Pass 1st | Run 1st | 1st Play P-R % | Pass Total | Rush Total | P-R % |
| TDs | 22 | 9 | 13 | 41% – 59% | 102 | 80 | 56% 44% |
| FGs | 14 | 14 | 0 | 100% – 0% | 73 | 27 | 73% – 27% |
| 3 & Outs | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% – 56% | 14 | 14 | 50% – 50% |
| All Punts | 16 | 7 | 9 | 44% – 56% | 46 | 25 | 65% – 35% |
| TOs | 11 | 8 | 3 | 73% -27% | 43 | 19 | 69% – 31% |
| INTs | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% – 33% | 6 | 1 | 86% – 14% |
| Fumbles | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% – 100% | 3 | 3 | 50% – 50% |
| Downs | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% – 0% | 31 | 15 | 68% – 32% |
| Blocked | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% – 0% | 3 | 0 | 100% – 0% |
I’m not a data scientist, but I know what I see and I trust my research abilities. I will admit that the Bills do go 3 & out more when they run on the first play of the drive, but barely, and it’s basically a coin toss. What affirms that is the total play distribution on their 3 & outs being exactly 50/50. So, there’s no significant statistical information to suggest that the Bills go 3 & out every time they run first, but it’s interesting to see this perception exists regardless. So, I went deeper.
What actually stood out to me the most in this table is the data on FG drives and turnovers. I’ve said in previous weeks that Buffalo has better overall success when they run more, and these numbers highlight that. All 14 of the Bills’ FG drives started with a pass play and the total play call distribution on those drives skews heavy pass (73%). The play distribution on their drives ending in turnovers (especially on downs) also shows a pass-heavy approach with both first play and total play distribution. There are a lot of factors at play, but the statistical evidence supports my belief in a more balanced system.
Now, let me state that I am not asking for a run-first approach. That’s not how the Bills are built and that isn’t their identity. I’m in favor of a pass dominant offense because that’s the team’s biggest strength. I just want better situational awareness late in games where Buffalo has the 4th quarter lead and a little more value placed on running the football. It’ll make things easier on Allen overall and the numbers actually reflect better overall success.
The Bills head into their bye week with plenty to think about and plenty to work on. They know they let a game slip through their fingers and I expect the defense to rebound with a ferocious effort when we see them back at home in Week 8 against the Dolphins. Miami has all kinds of issues to sort, but they may have DeShaun Watson at the helm when these teams meet next if the rumors are to be trusted.