Everything is on the line as Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady will lock horns for the fifth time, looking to break the 2-2 tie, as the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers, on their home turf in Super Bowl LV.
This will be the first time any team has played in a Super Bowl in their home stadium, so it remains to be seen what kind of home-field advantage will be on hand for the Bucs. There will be one element absent when the Bucs score, you won’t be hearing the canons fired from the pirate ship as the host Raymond James Stadium is technically supposed to be a “neutral site”. Tampa has been one of few teams who have had fans in attendance (at least in a partial capacity) for a good portion of the season, but it didn’t make a difference when the Chiefs visited Florida back in Week 12. In understanding this matchup, there’s no better place to start than the game they already played.
While the final result may have been a 27-24 win for the Chiefs, Bucs fans who have convinced themselves that this game was actually close are clinging to a false narrative. Kansas City got the ball first and went right down the field to open the game with a field goal. Both teams punted but the Chiefs struck quickly on their third possession, with a 75-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill to make it 10-0. Tampa punted again. KC’s next touch went 7-plays, 90-yards, and ended with a 44-yarder to Hill and to make it 17-0. This was the game where he lit them up for more than 200-yards receiving, just in the first quarter alone. After a fourth straight punt by the Bucs, the Chiefs rode a 12-play, 65-yard drive down to the Tampa 8-yard line to set up a 1st & goal. Fortunately for Tampa, Shaq Barrett came away with a sack-fumble on Mahomes that was recovered by William Gholston. Credit to Brady for going 86-yards in 7-plays to convert the turnover into a TD because it very easily could have been a 24-0 game instead. Kansas City would return with a 13-play, 65-yard drive to add a FG before the half to make it 20-7. Tampa avoided disaster but, realistically, the Bucs hadn’t done anything well. They had one good drive but went three of their five possessions went 3 & out and one of those was a QB kneel to end the half.
Tampa Bay got the ball to start the second half needing to answer with a score and they did, going 67-yards on 8-plays, but only came away with a FG. Still, all things considered, down 20-10 was a gift considering how drastically they’d been outplayed to that point. Todd Bowles is a competent defensive coordinator and, after get roasted by Hill so severely in the first half, you’d think that would be the one guy you can’t let beat you…again. However, Kansas City answered with a 7-play drive that saw Hill bring in 3-catches including the 20-yard TD to cap it off. Brady got picked on his next two drives, but the Chiefs cruising with a three-possession lead at that point. They missed a shot downfield and then just throttled down and punted to carry a 17-point lead into the 4th quarter.
At that point, the game was all but over. Down three possessions to KC is a death sentence and, even though TB mustered a pair of meaningless touchdowns at the end, the Chiefs weren’t doing anything but burning the clock down the stretch in the 4th quarter. So, sure, the Bucs only lost by 3-points but the game was never actually close.
That game marked the last time Tampa Bay would lose this season, winning five straight against losing teams before taking out the top two seeds in the NFC on their road to the Super Bowl. Kansas City would keep streaking after that win in Week 12 and they’d be on a 13-game win streak heading into this rematch with the Bucs if they hadn’t conceded a throwaway game in Week 17. Both teams are hot at the right time, so I’m expecting a better game this time around.
The Bucs have rededicated themselves to the run game in the postseason, averaging 115-yards on the ground through the first three games of the playoffs. The Chiefs already weren’t running the ball well at the time of their first meeting, so it’s not something they’ll have to adjust to suddenly. However, Damien Williams’ opt-out could prove to be a big factor in this matchup. Aaron Jones fumbled twice in the NFC title game vs Tampa and rest assured they’ll be looking to get their licks in on rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire who has been battling nagging injuries all season. This is what Le’Veon Bell was brought in for, but he only had 76 touches during the regular season and it’s been Darrel Williams who has become the go-to back in the postseason. KC only had 20 carries for 87-yards in their first meeting with TB and Mahomes had 28 of those while also throwing for a ridiculous 462-yards.
Both teams were allowed to get away with a ton of defensive holding in their conference championship games so it will be interesting to see how the refs call this one and who benefits from it the most. You have to expect Bowles is going to do everything imaginable to get his defense prepared to stop a repeat performance from the KC offense, but every team thinks they have it figured out. With Hill’s speed and Travis Kelce’s route running, any excessive grabbiness will be very apparent right away.
A lot has been made about the injuries along the offensive line of the Chiefs, especially with the added depth and skill on Tampa’s D-line with the return of Vita Vea and William Gholston. Chiefs’ left tackle Eric Fisher is out with a torn Achilles, so third-year player Martinas Rankin will have his hands full with Jason Pierre-Paul and/or Shaq Barrett. Kelechi Osemelie and Mitchell Swartz were lost earlier in the season but KC filled in those positions as needed and played without them for the majority of the season. They still had the best record in the league, the #1 offense, and Mahomes had the 5th lowest sack percentage. So, their O-line has performed just fine. Minus Fisher, it’s the same group that played in Week 12 and they only gave up 2-sacks in that game while mostly having a dominant day on offense. They’ll have their hands full, but to think they are completely outmatched doesn’t ring true.
Tom Brady is rocking the 3rd best sack percentage in the NFL but he also has twice as many interceptions as Mahomes. While TB12 has been great at punishing turnovers by his opponents, he’s also thrown 3-INTs in this postseason and got away with a handful of others against both New Orleans and Washington. The team that wins the turnover battle typically wins the game but taking care of the ball will be more important for the Bucs because of the big strike ability of the Chiefs.
Regardless of your personal feeling towards Brady, what he’s done is nothing short of remarkable. He’s seeking his seventh Super Bowl win in his 10th appearance. Even if the Chiefs come away with the win, Mahomes will still have only accomplished a fraction of what Brady has. You gotta start somewhere though and beating Tom in his domain to take the head-to-head advantage would go a long way in Mahomes’ legacy-building.
As a Bills fan, I don’t want to see either of those guys win but a draw isn’t possible. I know the oddsmakers opened the spread at -3.5 but in reality, only 14 Super Bowls have been decided by five points or less. Not even half (21) have been decided by less than 10. The majority of these games have been one-sided because one team is usually significantly better. I would argue that’s the case here, as we have evidence to support it, but the better team doesn’t always win. The team that plays better does. Recent money has come in on Tampa so the spread came down a half-point, leaving KC as 3-point favorites.
I could see Chiefs winning by more than TD much sooner than I could see the game going that way for the Bucs. Just last year, the Chiefs faced down an elite Niners’ defense, trailing by 10 with less than 8-minutes remaining in the game, and rattled off 21-unanswered-points to win the game by 11. The name of the game will be winning the line of scrimmage and not allowing the Chiefs’ offense to settle. Andy Reid knows it, Bruce Arians knows it, everyone knows it, but slowing down the Chiefs’ offense is much easier said than done.
Pick: Chiefs
ATS: Chiefs -3
Over/Under: Under 56