My streak of Thursday picks came to a particularly disappointing end as the Colts beat the Broncos in Denver, 12-9, in overtime. Watching Denver fans exit the Broncos’ stadium while the game was still tied, right before overtime, was a sentiment that was shared nationwide by most football fans who watched the game.
I was a tad rushed on Thursday trying to get everything done before having to show up for a rehearsal dinner, but I still feel like I wasn’t wrong to take the Broncos here. However, the reasoning I used to reach that conclusion may have been flawed. Denver was up 9-6, just outside the two-minute warning, with the ball and a 1st & 10 at the Indy 19-yard line. The Colts couldn’t muster a TD the whole game so a field goal to go up 6 points would have been massive at that stage in the game, but Russell Wilson threw an awful interception here in the endzone. Indy converted the ensuing drive into the game-tying field goal.
In my haste, I decided to hang the fate of my decision on the shoulders of Russell Wilson instead of Matt Ryan. On the final drive of the game, we saw glimpses of who Wilson can be as he chunked the Colts’ defense for 61 yards on back-to-back completions to Melvin Gordon and Jerry Jeudy down to the IND 14-yard line. So, despite the two earlier interceptions, all could have been salvaged and forgotten with a win.
Facing a 1st & 10, Denver ran the ball three times for 9 yards and wound up facing a 4th & 1 at the Colts’ 5-yard line. Unable to convert the 3rd & 2 right before, Nathaniel Hackett decided to throw. This is the moment where I banked on Russell making a play. Instead, his primary target slipped and Russ still wanted to go there but didn’t, and in the process, he missed a wide-open receiver and then tried to jam a ball in with an off-balance, back-foot, sidearm throw, and it was knocked away to finalize the Colts’ win.
Credit to Indy for never breaking in that game. There were a lot of opportunities for them to fold, especially Matt Ryan who was taking a beating. However, his willingness to keep fighting is the kind of thing a team needs to see from their leader and they helped lift him up with some big plays, particularly Alex Pierce. It was a good road win for Indy and a soul-searching kind of loss for Denver.
(+290) NY Giants 3-1 @ (-380) GB Packers 3-1 (-9, O/U 41.5)
I won’t be waking up for this one, but London is calling once again. Even at full strength, I feel like the Giants would struggle to handle the veteran presence of the Packers. So, looking at the triage center that is the Giants’ injury report doesn’t instill any confidence. There are games where a wounded team surprises an opponent that doesn’t take them seriously, but the G-Men have basically no WRs so it’s all on Danny Dimes, Richie James, and Saquon Barkley. Being outgunned in London isn’t ideal but I hope they win. I do have to pick the Packers though.
Pick: GB | ATS: GB -9 | O/U: Under 41.5
(+350) ATL Falcons 2-2 @ (-480) TB Buccaneers (-10, O/U 46)
This is a more interesting NFC South matchup than I would have anticipated at the season’s outset. The Bucs should be the favorite but 10 points is a big spread for a team that just gave up 41 to the Chiefs in Week 4. However, TE Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson are both out of this game and that’s essentially the top two talents on the Falcons’ offense. The Birds have stayed competitive in every game but it’s a tall order in this one against a Bucs squad that has to be frustrated after last week. Akiem Hicks is still out and the Bucs’ pass rush hasn’t been great, so good luck to Marcus Mariota and company.
*Pick: TB | ATS: ATL +10 | O/U: Under 46
(+600) Pittsburgh Steelers 1-3 @ (-900) Buffalo Bills 3-1 (-14, O/U 45.5)
If T.J. Watt were healthy, I would be much more concerned about the capabilities of the Steelers, like what we saw in last season’s opener. However, he’s not healthy and not playing along with Terrell Edmunds and Ahkello Witherspoon. Meanwhile, the Bills are without Jordan Poyer and Christian Benford once again and Dawson Knox is out too but it looks like some combo of Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips will be back. I don’t see PIT having too much beyond the element of surprise with Kenny Pickett under center and I feel bad that Mitch Trubisky doesn’t get to start, but the Bills should be just fine either way.
Pick: BUF | ATS: BUF -14 | O/U: Under 45.5
(-125) LA Chargers 2-2 @ (+105) CLE Browns 2-2 (+1.5, O/U 46.5)
A pair of middling AFC teams with significantly higher hopes meet up in Cleveland as the Chargers face the Browns. Keenan Allen being OUT and Joshua Palmer being questionable means it’s probably the Mike Williams and Austin Ekler show. Cleveland could potentially have Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney back, but their defense has been underwhelming. They do have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt though. These teams are very similar in that they both give up a lot of points and yardage but they both put up a reasonable amount of both as well. As Justin Herbert trends toward being fully recovered from the Ribs, I know he’ll give them a chance.
Pick: LAC | ATS: LAC -1.5 | O/U: Over 46.5
(+278) CHI Bears 2-2 @ (-355) MIN Vikings 3-1 (-7.5, O/U 44)
It’s that time of the year when I never know how to handle the Vikings. I managed to get a win out of them in London last week, but that was closer than I would have liked. Plus it was a hard-fought game and they had to travel back, so their week was a bit shorter than Chicago’s. Realistically, the Bears just aren’t good enough for me to get behind. If there is light for the Bears it’s that they are one of the best rushing teams in the league because that’s really all they do and the Vikings give up a lot on the ground. This would be one of those games where I pick Minny and they blow it, so I’ll take the Bears to cover.
Pick: MIN | ATS: CHI +7.5 | O/U: Under 44
(+148) DET Lions 1-3 @ (-175) NE Patriots 1-3 (-3, O/U 45.5)
I think the Lions are better than their record suggests and I’m not nice enough to extend that courtesy to the Patriots. However, New England did go into Lambeau and push the Packers to overtime in a game they shouldn’t have had a shot in. Can the Pats lean on the run game and defense to get it done at home vs Detroit? As much as I don’t want to acknowledge it, the answer is likely yes. The Lions have no Chark, no Swift, a banged-up St. Brown and Reynolds. That’s a lot of weapons missing from the league’s top offense and a team that relies on winning shootouts. The Pats aren’t 100% either as Mac Jones probably isn’t going to play, Lawrence Guy is out, and their secondary is banged up. Detroit’s offense is significantly better and their defense is significantly worse, but I think they’ve shown themselves as the better team.
Pick: DET | ATS: DET +3 | O/U: Over 45.5
(+180) SEA Seahawks 2-2 @ (-220) NO Saints 1-3 (-5, O/U 45)
Conventional wisdom says the Saints are the better team here, but they are beat up and they are coming home after the long travel back from London. Michael Thomas is still out, Jarvis Landry is questionable, along with Andrus Peat and Alvin Kamara, and Andy Dalton looks like he’s going to get the start again. That may not be a bad thing. He played pretty well last week and has experience. Seattle managed to win but gave up 45 points in the process and that’s been an issue for them this season. If the Saints defense can hold up, they should have a good chance.
Pick: NO | ATS: SEA +5 | O/U: Over 45
(-178) MIA Dolphins @ (+150) NY Jets (-3.5, O/U 45)
The Jets’ road win over the Steelers surely gave them a nice confidence boost. The Steelers haven’t been good though so how good of a win is it? Tough to say. Life will look different for the Dolphins with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, but he is a capable starter. The bigger issue for Miami would be the injury status of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Jets are pretty healthy with Zach Wilson back under center now and Duane Brown back at LT. This could be a good recipe for NY to get a big division game early. Miami has been the better team this season, so I see why they are favored but it’s hard to tell if they will be as effective without Tua. They don’t run the ball and you have to think their passing game takes a small hit while the Jets’ defense has been much better against the pass.
Pick: MIA | ATS: NYJ +3.5 | O/U: Under 45
(-115) TEN Titans 2-2 @ (-105) WSH Commanders 1-3 (EVEN, O/U 43)
As bad as the Titans looked to start the season, they are even while Washington has gone the opposite direction since their season-opening win. The Commanders do get an intriguing boost with Brian Robinson coming back from his gunshot wounds to take over lead RB duties, but it’s hard to outshine Derrick Henry who is coming off his first King-like performance of the season. Realistically neither team has been good this season, so that’s why this is an even money game. Hard to pick it, but I don’t trust Carson Wentz, so I’ll take the devil I know in the Titans.
Pick: TEN | ATS: N/A | O/U: Over 43
(+250) HOU Texans 0-3-1 @ (-320) JAX Jaguars 2-2 (-7, O/U 43.5)
Houston has eight straight wins over the Jaguars across the last four seasons, but that should be coming to an end. The Texans are the worst team in the league right now and some of that is due to the lack of growth out of Davis Mills at this point. On the other side of things, Trevor Lawrence is beginning to look like the #1 overall pick. It wasn’t the prettiest in Philly but Hurts didn’t do much better in the rain and the Jags had the Eagles on their heels early. Jacksonville should have gained confidence knowing they can compete with he top dogs in the league and use that to end the skid against Houston. Plus their run defense has been great and takes aim at the one thing HOU does well.
Pick: JAX | ATS: JAX -7 | O/U: Under 43.5
(-292) SF 49ers 2-2 @ (+235) CAR Panthers 1-3 (+6.5, O/U 39.5)
I don’t know how the ESPN power index has this as a coin toss game since there’s nothing to indicate Carolina has much to offer. Baker Mayfield isn’t playing well, at all, and even the Niners mid-level offense is better. Plus, the 49ers bring a mean defense to town. Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw are big missing pieces on the defense, but not big enough for it to matter to me here. The thing that could cause issues is over confidence after beating the Rams last week, but this isn’t new territory. Niners should roll.
Pick: SF | ATS: SF -6.5 | O/U: Under 39.5
(+196) DAL Cowboys 3-1 @ (-240) LA Rams 2-2 (-5.5, O/U 42)
I don’t know why this game has such a big spread. The Rams are struggling and they will be without Brian Allen at center and Coleman Shelton went to IR. That’s terrible news for a team whose O-line gave up 7 sacks last week. The Cowboys defense has been very good and they will pose some of the same problems as the Niners did last week. Cooper Kupp probably still eats because he always does, but Dallas has the better ground game and the overall yardage numbers are comparable. Plus, it’s not like the Rams offense is the juggernaut they were last season. This is a great spot for Dallas to pull the “upset”.
Pick: DAL | ATS: DAL +5.5 | O/U: Under 42
(-235) PHI Eagles 4-0 @ (+192) AZ Cardinals 2-2 (+5.5, O/U 49)
The Eagles are better everywhere than the Cardinals. Arizona is really banged up too with the whole left side of their O-line dealing with one thing or another. That’s not going to bode well for them. It seems like an easy over so I’ll take the under and maybe regret it.
Pick: PHI | ATS: PHI -5.5 | O/U: Under 49
(+148) CIN Bengals 2-2 @ (-175) BAL Ravens 2-2 (+3.5, O/U 47.5)
The game between these teams last year are really what signaled the arrival of the Bengals in the AFC North. As both teams are 2-2, it’s a big game. Baltimore has now seen double digit leads evaporate twice in three games while the Bengals are riding back-to-back wins. It should be a good game to watch so I am glad it got to the Sunday night slot. Rashod Bateman is OUT and that’s a big loss for the Raven’s offense in what looks like a shootout in the making. We now Joe Burrow likes playing this team, but it will be interested to see him up against the BAL secondary with Peters and Humphrey back. It’s just hard to think the Ravens have confidence right now after last week.
Pick: CIN | ATS: CIN +3.5 | O/U: Over 47.5
(+270) LV Raiders 1-3 @ (-345) KC Chiefs 3-1 (-7, O/U 51.5)
We get an important AFC West matchup to close out the week on Monday Night Football as the very desperate Raiders look to at least take a chunk out of the Chiefs’ division lead. It has been rough for Vegas but they have played in all close games too. There is an alternate universe where they are 4-0, but that’s not the universe we get to observe. If they really believe in who they are as a team and what they want to accomplish, this would be the time to go get it. They already picked up a W against an admittedly mediocre Broncos team, but a win is a win. Kansas City just spanked the Bucs pretty good and they may be a tad over confident coming into this one. We saw what happened when they didn’t take the Colts seriously. There is no logical reason to take the Raiders other than their desperate necessity, but that’s a powerful motivator and maybe seeing the W has helped out their team confidence.
Pick: KC | ATS: LVR +7 | O/U: Over 51.5
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