Well, we have arrived at that inevitable point in the season where the Thursday Night Football schedule is producing duds. The purpose of Thursday night games is to provide a National showcase for all the teams so there are bound to be some clunkers, but the less-than-stellar matchmaking often feels intentional. There was probably the expectation that the Saints and the Cardinals wouldn’t be 2-4 when the schedule was made…yet here we are. While the game doesn’t carry a great deal of value to those outside of these two fanbases, the chaotic nature of these squads could produce an enjoyable, if not a good, game.
(+122) NO Saints 2-4 at (-145) Arizona Cardinals 2-4 (-2.5, O/U 43.5)
The Saints and the Cardinals are both struggling for different reasons, but both squads are in the hot seat as they are far below expectations so far this season. The good news is their respective divisions are logjams of mediocrity. New Orleans and Arizona are both only a game back and one of them could wind up having a share of their division lead by the time Week 7 concludes…assuming they don’t end up in a tie. I am not going to be around to watch this one either way, but there are some things to keep an eye out for.
The biggest ticketed item is DeAndre Hopkins’ return from suspension. As we saw down the stretch last season, the Cardinals’ offense struggles mightily without D-Hop on the field and the urgency to get him back likely led to taking a banned substance to aid in recovery which in turn led to the 6-game suspension he just finished serving. When healthy, Hopkins is one of the very best receivers in the game and provides the Cards with the big play threat that makes their scheme work. However, it’s worth noting that he hasn’t played since December 13th, 2021.
Arizona’s offense has been middling, at best. Their total offensive yards are inflated because they are playing from behind but they rank 29th in yards per play and are dead last in both yards-per-attempt and yards-per-completion and rank 30th in passing TD percentage.
At the very least, Hopkins should at least provide a spark and he’ll be well-positioned to succeed thanks to a struggling Saints’ defense. New Orleans is 29th in points allowed giving up 26.3 per game thanks to a 21st-ranked run defense that’s surrendering 4.6 YPC and a pass defense that’s 24th in yards per catch allowed and Qb Rating against. So, the defense was already having issues before some key injuries heading into this game.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | WR | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Andrus Peat | G | Chest | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Adam Trautman | TE | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Keith Kirkwood | WR | Ankle | DNP | DNP | LP | Questionable |
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | Abdomen | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Paulson Adebo | CB | Knee | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Calvin Throckmorton | OT | Hip | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Payton Turner | DE | Chest | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
New Orleans will be without their top defensive back and shadow coverage guy, Marshon Lattimore, who was ruled out with an abdomen injury. Their other CB, Paulson Adebo, is nursing a knee injury that kept him limited in practice all week, so we’ll be seeing a lot of Bradley Roby and Bryce Thompson. That’s enough to be concerned about in this matchup, but the injury bug has bitten the Saints and left a massive welt.
Andrus Peat is still OUT at left guard and they will be without three of their top receiving weapons as Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and TE Adam Trautman are all OUT for this game also. The Saints will be getting dazzling rookie WR Chris Olave back after a scary concussion two weeks ago. Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith have big opportunities to step in here, but we still don’t even know who is playing QB for the Saints in this one.
Andy Dalton has been a bright spot and NO has scored more points per game with him at the helm but Jameis Winston no longer has an injury designation and was able to get in limited practices this week while dealing with both ankle issues and broken bones in his back, which led to Andy Dalton starting in the first place. Dalton also hurt his back last week against the Bengals but he got in a full practice on Friday. So, if I had to guess, he’s going to be the one under center who gives them the best chance to win.
The Cards have their own laundry list of injuries to deal with, namely their starting center and left guard being absent. Dealing with one of those key pieces missing is doable, but we’ve seen the Rams’ O-line get brutalized in recent weeks under similar circumstances. The Saints’ defense generally has one of the worst pressure rates in the league, but the Seahawks feasted on Arizona up front in Week 6 to the tune of 5 sacks. It’s a good thing Kyler Murray can move because he’s going to have to.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | WR | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| James Conner | RB | Ribs | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Dennis Gardeck | LB | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Justin Pugh | G | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jalen Thompson | FS | Hamstring | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Darrel Williams | RB | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Trayvon Mullen | CB | Hamstring | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
Marquise Brown’s foot injury appears to be bigger than anticipated and led to Arizona trading to acquire Robbie Anderson from the Panthers. That gives AZ another vertical threat and should be softened by D-Hop’s return but RB James Conner didn’t practice all week. He will probably start, but rib injuries are troublesome for runningbacks and we saw Melvin Gordon get a few underwhelming snaps on Monday before riding the pine the rest of the way. Darrel Williams is already out, so AZ is very thin at RB should they need it. Matt Prater is also dealing with a right hip injury that kept him out of practice this week and that’s terrible news for a right-legged kicker. Don’t be surprised to see AZ be more aggressive in certain situations where they would normally try the field goal.
The rumor mill has been swirling and Kliff Kingsbury is very clearly on the hot seat. He was one of those hirings that came after Sean McVay had every franchise scrambling for the next young genius head coach. While Kingsbury has had his moments of success, I never feared this Cardinals team and they go into the tank around the middle of the season every year under his guidance. This time they don’t have the luxury of a winning record beforehand to lean on and, because of their slow start, he now has a losing record as a head coach. If they miss the playoffs, he’s probably gone so they have to sell out to win on Thursday. It’s a good spot to pick up a win against another banged-up and underperforming team, and how the Cards play will say a lot about how they view Kliff as their coach.
These teams do have a couple of common opponents in Seattle and Carolina, but they also split those meetings so the football math doesn’t point in one direction. The ugliest loss of the bunch is New Orleans’ 22-14 loss to a Carolina team that looks like the worst team in football. However, losing 19-9 to the Seahawks in Week 6 was pretty ugly for the Cards too. The Saints’ average margin of defeat is smaller than Arizona’s but I don’t know if that counts for much when they are pretty close to even on paper in total offense, total defense, and points.
Conventional wisdom says the Saints are going to do what they do best and play ground-and-pound football. They have one of the best rushing attacks in the league averaging 151.5 YPG (7th) and 5.3 YPC (3rd) and they can run from a number of different looks thanks to Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram II, and Taysom Hill all being involved but it also attacks the Cardinals’ defense where they are strongest. Arizona is 8th in rushing YPG allowed but their YPC average is a bit worse at 14th.
It’s a tough game to call. Neither team has a winning record against the spread and it’s already low. It is a great spot to get the Saints as plus-money underdogs (+122) to win outright, but I also believe in necessity. It is a prove-it game for Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury, and DeAndre Hopkins, at home. At the very least, if they are going to attempt to salvage this season, it starts Thursday night at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Pick: AZ | ATS: NO +2.5 | O/U: Over 43.5 | Final: AZ 25 – 23 NO
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