The Philadelphia Eagles kept their season afloat with an impressive come-from-behind victory over the Panthers, much to my dismay, and they are looking to carry that momentum with them into a primetime showdown with the defending champs. Tampa Bay had a little more trouble with Miami than anyone expected, but they wound up cruising in the end. They head into Philly on a short week, so let’s get into the particulars.
(-300) Buccaneers at (+240) Eagles (+7, o/u 52.5)
Heading into this matchup, the Buccaneers are still dealing with plenty of injury issues. Rob Gronkowski is at the top of that list and when the Bucs played the Patriots, his absence was very apparent. However, they pretty much abandoned the tight end game vs the Dolphins and Tom Brady still lit them up for 400-yards and 5-TDs. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown both went for over 100-yards in that game and each had 2-TDs, but the Fins have one of the league’s worst defenses and Brady exploited it to the fullest.
There are a bunch of other notable injuries to the Bucs’ defense including cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting who are both on injured reserve. They reloaded by adding free agent Richard Sherman and Jamel Dean is back from injury, but starting safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is out and so is starting linebacker Lavonte David. Having Jason Pierre-Paul back on the defensive line helps, but this defense has a lot of holes in it right now and that’s part of the reason why they’re dead last against the pass right now.
Philly may not be blowing any doors down with their passing attack, but it’s been serviceable and QB Jalen Hurts uses his legs to hurt defenses as well. He’ll be without one of his favorite targets as TE Dallas Goedert is on the Covid list. This is basically the same situation Seahawks’ tight end Gerald Everett found himself in last week. If Goedert can’t play, we’ll see if Zach Ertz can fill the role by himself. The offense will also be missing their former All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson who will miss his third game due to a personal matter. Other than that, their injury report looks pretty clean and they’ll have the better defense come game time.
They are going to need it because the Bucs have the #3 overall offense in the NFL. Most of that is Brady leading the league’s #1 passing attack, but that’s also where Philly’s defense is at its strongest (#3). Their D isn’t terrible against the run, giving up 4.3-yards-per-carry (ranked 19th), but teams attack them there and they’ve given up the 3rd most yards-per-game on the ground as a result.
NFL math doesn’t always add up in a straight line, but Kansas City may be a good point of comparison. Playing against one of the league’s other top offensive units, Philly gave up 42-points to the Chiefs in Week 4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrell Williams chopped ’em up for 144-yards and a touchdown on the ground and Tyreek Hill torched them for 186-yards and 3-Tds on 11-catches. Mahomes had 5-TDs in the game but didn’t break 300-yards through the air. Tampa’s offensive is more methodical than the Chiefs’ but they also have big-play capability and more receiving threats to worry about. Don’t be surprised to see the Bucs establish the run to force extra defenders into the box before taking some shots downfield.
Both teams are right next to each other in scoring defense, giving up more than 24-points per game, but the Bucs are averaging about 10-points more per game on offense. The Bucs are rightly favored and I’m inclined to think they win this game, but the Eags showed that they aren’t going to go quietly. I just haven’t seen enough quality football from Philly this season to think they can win outright, but it’s a golden opportunity at home with the Bucs still nursing some wounds.
Pick: Bucs | Vs Spread: Eags +7 | Over: 52.5 | Final: TB 30-24 PHI