It has been so far so good with Thursday picks this season and I’m looking to keep that rolling even though this is the first game Thursday Night Football game that I don’t particularly care about. When the schedules got released, this was a much more appealing matchup but both teams have gotten off to sub-par starts as the Colts head to Denver to take on the Broncos.
(+150) IND Colts 1-2-1 @ (-178) DEN Broncos 2-2 (-3, O/U 42)
Beyond the crappy starts, the major headlines heading into this game are injury related. The Colts’ Jonathan Taylor was dealing with a toe injury last week and now he’s out of this game with an ankle injury. Denver’s second-year running back Javonte Williams was lost for the season when he tore his ACL and LCL last week in Las Vegas. So, what was undoubtedly set up as a showcase for two of the league’s best young backs has turned into a matchup of two veteran quarterbacks trying to salvage wins.
DENVER BRONCOS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Blackmon | FS | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Shaquille Leonard | OLB | Concussion/Nose/Back | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Tyquan Lewis | DE | Concussion | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
That is easier said than done for two QBs who have had rough transitions to their new homes after long tenures with their previous teams. The general public perception was that both teams were getting upgrades at the QB position, with Indy moving from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan and the Broncos switching to Russell Wilson from Teddy Bridgewater, but that hasn’t been the case so far…at least on paper and on the record books.
I haven’t kept my thoughts on Matt Ryan a secret but I figured he’d at least be decent with a run game and a defense, but none of those things have really transpired for the Colts thus far. It was probably easier to buy into the Mr. Unlimited hype and dismiss last season because of the injury when Wilson was traded to the Broncos but, having watched the Seahawks very closely throughout Wilson’s tenure, there were some red flags in his decision-making on his way out of town and I had brought up on the show that it was fair to start asking if his best days were behind him as a few seasons ago. Even so, he is an upgrade from Bridgewater but the delirium over his instant success was unwarranted. While I wasn’t expecting that, I was expecting better than this. The injuries to both of their starting RBs are going to put them more directly in the spotlight for this game.
Both of these teams are coming off losses to opponents that have been bad this season. However, in fairness, both of them had what could arguably be their “best” performances of the season. There is also a bit of fool’s gold in there as well.
Indy lost to the Titans in Tennessee and allowed Derrick Henry to finally look like himself in the process, which isn’t a great sign heading into Denver where the Broncos want to run the ball. As a result, the Colts were playing from behind early. So, Matt Ryan’s 356 passing yards and 2 TDs might look good on paper but when the tight end is the leading receiver that’s not ideal.
The Broncos gave the previously winless Raiders their first W, which may end up being a big AFC West game, and Josh Jacobs steamrolled their previously stout defense. Denver was hanging in the majority of the way and Russ started to look more like himself throwing for a pair of TDs and finally using his legs more effectively, adding a rushing score. It wasn’t enough, but it was the most promising thing we have seen from him yet.
If we stripped all the injuries away and had both these teams at full health, I would lean toward Denver. The Colts have the best win between them (KC) but that’s their only win and, aside from that, they have far worse performances overall. The Broncos stay competitive regardless and they score more per game and give up fewer, so when the yardage stuff is comparable I have to trust what I see.
Anything can happen, but injuries to Colts stud MLB Shaquille Leonard and S Julian Blackmon as are big a cause for concern as anything. Denver has to deal with their starting RG Quinn Meinerz being out, but having mobility at the QB position helps.
It’s a short week, Indy is on the road, playing at altitude and they have several key guys out. Nyheim Hines could be a good fantasy play but it remains to be seen. Denver may have lost Williams but have a very capable #2 guy in Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray is there to spell him too. But, at the end of the day, I’m taking Russ over Ryan to find a way to get it done at home.
Pick: DEN| ATS: DEN -3| O/U: Under 42 | Final: DEN 20 – 16 IND
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