Just a quick note before I get started. This website just set a new milestone by passing the 4,000 visitor mark this year! That may not seem like a lot, and it’s really not in the grand scheme, but that’s more than double the visitors from two years ago and more than I ever anticipated when that number was in the hundreds just a couple of years ago. So, I just wanted to thank each and every one of you that has taken the time to come here in some capacity and help foster that growth. I appreciate you!
We have arrived at the bizarro world portion of the NFL season where tiebreakers and seeding scenarios dictate weird decisions. We get to see it firsthand as the Cowboys travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans…or at least what’s left of them.
(-800) DAL Cowboys 11-4 @ (+550) TEN Titans 7-8 (+13.5, O/U 40)
Week 17 in the NFL signals the Fantasy Football Championships for many of us, myself included. I have several players on the Cowboys in a matchup they want to win, against an opponent who is using this as a rest game for the majority of their key players before they head into a play-in game next week. Looking at the roster decisions for the Titans, it is easy to see why Dallas is favored by 13.5 points and that may even be kind of low.
TENNESSEE TITANS
By my count, there are four defensive starters listed as OUT for the Titans, and Denico Autry and Kristian Fulton are DOUBTFUL after getting in limited practice sessions on a short week. So, I’m thinking they likely won’t play. The goes for Derrick Henry who I’m sure Tennessee would rather have at 100% for the final showdown in Week 18. Add to that, Malik Willis won’t even be starting at QB this week either, instead, it will be 5th-year man Joshua Dobbs who has a whopping 45 total career passing yards getting the nod. The Titans don’t appear to want any part of this game.
DALLAS COWBOYS
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorance Armstrong | DE | Knee | FP | FP | DNP | Unspecified |
| Noah Brown | WR | Foot | FP | FP | FP | Unspecified |
| Jayron Kearse | S | Elbow/Back | LP | LP | FP | Unspecified |
| Demarcus Lawrence | DE | Foot | LP | LP | FP | Unspecified |
| Zack Martin | G | Knee | FP | FP | FP | Unspecified |
| Tony Pollard | RB | Thigh | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Leighton Vander Esch | MLB | Neck | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Sam Williams | DE | Concussion | LP | LP | FP | Unspecified |
| Micah Parsons | OLB | Hand | LP | LP | Questionable |
Leighton Vander Esch is OUT in the middle of the Cowboys’ defense and Micah Parsons may not play that much, especially if the game is well in hand, but Dallas is in mostly good shape. The Tony Pollard questionable designation injury is going to be interesting because he didn’t practice all week and it’s in Dallas’ best interest to make sure he is healthy for the playoffs or any potential big game that could come after this. I wouldn’t rely on him in fantasy this week.
Dallas has one of the Top 10 offenses in the league, but it will be interesting to see if they throttle down if they are in full control, or if they use the opportunity to work on some things they otherwise would only get to practice. It would be a great opportunity to get guys like Dalton Shultz and Michael Gallup involved, but I am also probably over-invested in them for fantasy reasons.
I am not the type to put all my eggs in one basket, but the Titans do have the 2nd worst pass defense in the league in yardage and have given up the 3rd most TDs through the air. That’s mostly because their run defense has been solid all season but a lot of those guys won’t play. So, I don’t want to over-leverage myself one way or the other.
What the Titans’ offense will look like is a mystery with Henry likely out and a new QB under center, but they will have a stiff test either way against a Dallas defense that is 4th in pressure rate despite being middle of the pack as a whole. The Boys are Top 10 against the pass but only 22nd against the run and one way or another and Tennessee has the run game in their DNA, so this will be a good test of both teams’ philosophies.
I have no real reason to think the Titans are competitive hear unless the Cowboys really shit the bed. It’s as much of a layup as you can get when you are fighting for the division crown and potentially the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so they better not blow it.
Pick: DAL | ATS: DAL -13.5 | O/U: Over 40 | Final: DAL 35 – 6 TEN
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