It has been a hectic week as we barrel ahead toward Christmas and based on the last month or so, I figured the favorite in this matchup would be pretty straightforward but I was wrong. The surging Jaguars are underdogs as they head to the Meadowlands to take on the Jets in something of an AFC Wild Card eliminator on Thursday Night Football.
(+115) JAX Jaguars 6-8 @ (-135) NY Jets 7-7 (-2.5, O/U 36.5)
I already had it in my head that the Jets were going to be underdogs in this game and I was looking forward to jumping on that, but as I sat down to start prepping this article I saw that they are actually 2.5-point favorites. That is a pretty sizeable spread considering they’ve lost four of their last five including as 1-point underdogs at home last week vs the Lions. Now, my scheme of stealing a game early in the week with an upset pick is in the woodchipper and I have to reassess everything.
The biggest factor here has to be the weather. It’s going to be cold and raining for what looks like the majority of the game and that is probably going to affect the efficiency of both offenses. When that’s the case, I can understand the team with the better defense being favored at home. Even if it doesn’t rain there is good reason to think the Jets’ defense will play a major factor in the outcome, take last week for an example.
Detroit was one of the hottest teams in the league when they went into the Meadowlands. The Lions walked out with a victory but the Jets pushed them to the brink. New York held the lead with two minutes left in regulation and missed a field goal that would have forced overtime. It is worth noting because Detroit is strikingly similar to Jacksonville and the Jets. Seriously, it’s actually a bit weird how alike they are.
I can’t tell if I am trying to talk myself into sticking with the Jets to win after thinking they’d be underdogs, or just acknowledging that they could have very well beaten the Lions. Had they beaten Detroit, having them favored here would make sense and that’s what is most confusing to me.
NEW YORK JETS
It appears as though Quinnen Williams will be back for the Jets, which is huge for their defense, and Bam Knight looks good to go off the ankle injury. Zach Wilson is going to start again for the injured Mike White and he didn’t have the most efficient day in that role last week. He did throw for 300+ yards but at only about a 50% clip and he got sacked 4 times. That’s in part because the Lions managed to shut down the Jets’ run game, holding them to just 50 yards on 22 carries. The bad news for New York is that Jags’ run defense is significantly better and should pose similar problems. The name of the game is making Wilson have to beat you and Detroit showed that last week.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | Toe | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Andrew Wingard | DB | Shoulder | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Travon Walker | OLB | Ankle | LP | LP | DNP | Out |
| Chad Muma | LB | Ankle | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Brandon Scherff | G | Abdomen | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Cam Robinson | OT | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jawaan Taylor | OT | Hamstring | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Foley Fatukasi | DE | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
In the pursuit of making the Jets as one-dimensional as possible, shutting down the run will be a bigger order for the Jags’ defense without Travon Walker and Foley Fatukasi. Chad Muma is also a little dinged in at linebacker not being able to get in a full practice all week, so the Jets have to expose that as much as possible.
What we get here is two young teams with bright futures locked into a very tight race for the final AFC Wild Card Spot. The Jets have a great defense that is Top 5 in basically all the major categories including points against and yards per play. Jacksonville has an offense that is coming into its own, ranking 6th in total yards, 10th in passing, 10th in rushing, and 12th in scoring. That’s going to make for an interesting matchup, much like it did with Detroit (who is slightly better on offense than the Jags and slightly worse on defense).
My gut said Jets at the outset before I ever sat down and looked at this matchup, and even though they have lost 3 in a row you have to look at the competition. Their opponents over that stretch, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Detroit had a combined record of 29-13. Jacksonville has won three of their last five and their wins are against opponents who have a combined record of 26-16 (DAL, TEN, BAL), so they are beating quality teams. However, none of those teams has a defense as good as the Jets’ either.
Looking at their common opponent over the last month, New York gave Detroit a very competitive game where the Jags got completely steamrolled by those Lions two weeks earlier. At 3-4, the Jets aren’t the best home team but the Jags are 2-5 on the road this season. Furthermore, the Jags are 2-13 on the road with Lawrence as QB. His numbers are basically the same, so that means the games are getting away elsewhere but he does appear to be under pressure more often on the road and the Jets will surely test him there as they are Top 10 in pressure rate and sacks. T-Law is still listed as questionable too, so it will be worth keeping a close eye on his mobility with that toe injury.
There are good cases to be made for both teams here and the Jags at +2.5 is pretty nice, as is +115 on the money line. However, a road game + cold + rain + Jets’ elite defense = a rough night for the Jags. Plus the Jets beat the Jags in New York last season, also in Week 16. Call it an omen if you will, call me an AFC East purist, but I am going to stick with the Jets and see if I can get one to start the week.
Pick: Jets | ATS: Jets -2.5 | O/U: Under 36.5 | Final: NYJ 20 – 13 JAX
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