The NFC West is closer than I’m sure many imagined and not exactly how you may have thought about three months ago. The Seattle Seahawks’ hopes of getting a crack at a division title are on the line as they host the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football.
(-190) SF 49ers 9-4 @ (+158) SEA Seahawks 7-6 (+3, O/U 43)
If someone told you last year that we’d be getting Brock Purdy leading the 49ers into Seattle against Geno Smith in a pivotal NFC West showdown, with plenty of playoff implications, you should listen to everything that person has to say from now on.
I was higher on the Seahawks than most during the offseason and I am on record talking about them as a Wild Card-ish team. I certainly didn’t expect them to lead the division at any point and it seems like that moment in the season is done with. The Niners were one of the early-season favorites to win the NFC West and I think they can wrap it up with a win over the Hawks, but I don’t think anyone truly believed they’d be in that position if they were on their 3rd string QB.
However, Brock Purdy has just come in and held it down, and he’s done it against two pretty good teams in the Dolphins and the Bucs. With the kind of defense the 49ers possess, there isn’t a ton of pressure on the rookie QB but his mobility allows them to play closer to the offense they envisioned for Trey Lance when he got the starting job in the offseason.
That whole spectacle was its own entity before the season but it was actually the first meeting between these teams back in Week 2 where Lance was injured for the season and Jimmy G stepped in to lead the 49ers. With him back under center, the 49ers became even more of a Super Bowl favorite, up until the point where he was injured against the Fins and Purdy took over. Logic would dictate that a 3rd-string rookie taking over would ding those chances but San Francisco looks as good as ever with him at the helm. If the trend continues I think there is going to be some serious discussion about whether bringing Jimmy back for the playoffs even makes sense. Time will tell but, first, they have to take care of business against Seattle.
When these teams met back at the start of the season, things were very different offensively for both. I already mentioned the QB situation, but they hadn’t yet added Christian McCaffrey to their backfield and Deebo Samuel was healthy. So, it’s an entirely new-look offense for Seattle to have to prepare for. On the other side of that coin, Pete Carroll hadn’t yet discovered exactly what the offense would look like without Russell Wilson or how good Kenneth Walker III is. So, there is a lot of change in the air heading into the rematch. However, some things stay the same.
San Francisco still has a far superior defense. It showed in their 27-7 win over SEA back in Week 2 and now they boast the #1 defense in Week 15. That’s consistency. They are also tied at the top for best yards against average. Meanwhile, Seattle has one of the league’s most exploitable defenses, particularly on the ground where they give up the 2nd most yards per game, and the 5th most yards per carry. That’s a horrible recipe for taking on any Kyle Shannahan team, let alone this one.
The Hawks average a couple more points per game, but the offenses are ultimately pretty comparable. San Francisco actually ranks higher overall, but we’re talking 80 yards over the course of the season. However, it’s surprising that Seattle’s passing edge is so small, only 14 YPG. That’s really nothing. So again, it all points back to the Niners’ Top 10 rushing attack against the Hawks’ Bottom 5 run defense.
I am trying to not overthink it. Seattle is just 2-3 in their last 5 games and SF has won their last 6 straight. Granted the competition hasn’t been great on either side during that stretch, but the Hawks just lost to the Panthers while SF smashed Tom Brady and the Bucs, who beat Seattle (with Walker III) just a month ago. If there is an edge there, it’s firmly in San Francisco’s corner.
Anything can happen in the NFL, especially when the officiating decides to get overly involved, and we saw that on Thursday Night Football last week as the Rams came out of nowhere to beat the Raiders. It was great drama and probably good for rating, but highly suspect.
I like the Seahawks and I am glad they are in a position to extinguish all the Wilson drama of the offseason and move forward with success. However, I am confident that the 49ers are the better team and are too good to end up getting hosed by the refs…but you just never know in the NFL.
Pick: SF | ATS: SF -3 | O/U: Over 43 | FINAL: SF 30-14 SEA
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