We have arrived at Week 14 of the NFL regular season but, for many of us, that signals the end of our fantasy football regular seasons. This should have been a much better game, but we get the suddenly rejuvenated Raiders taking on what’s left of the Rams on Thursday Night Football.
(-305) LV Raiders @ (+240) Los Angeles Rams (+6.5, O/U: 42.5)
It looks like the Raiders are starting to live up to the potential they had during the offseason and, much like last year, they are putting together a late run to get back into contention. They aren’t going to win the AFC West, but a win on Thursday keeps them in a Wild Card race that’s tightening.
The Rams are basically in evaluation mode as both Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson II were lost with season-ending injuries, Matthew Stafford got shut down for the season too after repeated concussions and a neck injury that landed him on IR, and now Aaron Donald will miss his second straight game amid an already underwhelming campaign. I don’t recall seeing a Super Bowl Champion fall quite this far the season after they won a championship.
Surprisingly, the Rams had one of their best recent efforts last week against the Seattle Seahawks. They did end up losing their 6th game in a row against their division rivals but they fought the whole way and Cam Akers even showed signs of life against the miserable Hawks’ run defense. So, at the very least there are some positives to take into this matchup but with backup QB John Wolford questionable too, the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield off waivers when he was released from the Panthers.
I see it as a move that took Mayfield off the board for their division-rival 49ers who may need help at QB after the Jimmy G injury, but Baker could potentially play in this game. He’s listed as 2nd on the depth chart but he probably won’t get up to speed on the offense that quickly. However, if this game goes south, we could see Baker get a few snaps in.
That is a real scenario as things could get ugly if the Raiders’ offense stays hot. Vegas has won three in a row (including a 40-34 OT win over those Seahawks) and a lot of that should be credited to Josh Jacobs. He looked to be an afterthought when the club didn’t pick up his option to start the year and signed Davante Adams in the offseason, but now he leads the league in rushing and has powered this Raiders team back into contention.
Contract-year Jacobs has become a mythical creature who is powering plenty of folks to the fantasy playoffs. In the last three games, he has 83 carries, for 482 yards, and 3 TDs, including the walk-off score in OT vs Seattle. That’s a staggering 27/160.0/1 average line, and that freed up the passing game. Adams over that same stretch has 22 catches for 395 yards and 4 TDs for a 7.3/131.6/1.3 average line.
Much like last season, it’s been the defense that has let the Raiders down. Even with the addition of Chandler Jones, the Raiders are near the bottom of the league in sacks (28th) and pressure percentage (25th). However, we have finally started to see what the defensive front could look like over the past few games. Vegas came away with three sacks against Denver and Seattle and sacked Justin Herbert 5 times last week. That’s more than half of their season total (21) in just three games and if that trend continues, the Raiders are going to be a tough out for anyone.
I wish I had something positive to throw the Rams’ way, but it’s been a rough year. The bright side is they have no expectations anymore and the freedom to fail alleviates pressure. You saw it last week against the Seahawks. They played their best game and scored the most points since their Week 6 win over the Panthers when they still had their key starters healthy. That may be a small consolation prize for Rams fans.
Los Angeles isn’t even in a great position draft-wise as their 1st round pick still belongs to the Lions as part of the Matthew Stafford deal, so tanking isn’t going to secure any prized pick. That puts them between a rock and a hard place motivation-wise.
The opportunity to spoil the Raiders’ late-season push and home-field advantage may be enough to keep the game close than you’d think in the early going. The Rams have had a solid defense all season and have been very good against the run, much like they were last week. However, eventually, the Hawks’ passing attack eventually feasted to the tune of 367 yards and 3 TDs through the air. So, all signs point to a Rams loss.
Pick: LVR | ATS: LVR | O/U: Under 42.5 | Final: LVR 27 – 10 LAR
Thanks for reading! I still believe word of mouth is the best way to help, so if you enjoy what I’m doing, please tell somebody. And if you have a comment, I’d love to hear it! Liking, subscribing, and sharing go a long way too. And, as usual, be well, stay safe, and Go Bills!