The Bills barely edged the Lions in Detroit to start the slate of Thanksgiving games and I took a chance on the Patriots on the road in Minnesota as the nightcap game, but it didn’t pay off as I went 2-1 on Turkey Day. Now both teams are back at it on Thursday Night Football, with plenty to play for, as the Bills head to Foxborough to take on the Pats in an important AFC East rivalry showdown.
(-195) BUF Bills 8-3 at (+162) NE Patriots 6-5 (+3.5, O/U 43.5)
The Bills are trying to keep pace with the Dolphins who lead the AFC East and the Chiefs who lead the AFC overall, but I wouldn’t say it’s desperation. Meanwhile, the Pats are trying to keep pace in the Wildcard race for the time being. Buffalo could seriously use a division win while New England certainly wants to get a leg up on their rival, already having the 2-0 record against the Jets who are currently a game ahead of them in both the division and Wildcard races. Nobody’s season is going to come to an end with a loss in this one, but there is a lot of positional leverage on the line at Gillette Stadium Thursday Night.
Both teams played hard-fought, back-and-forth games on Thanksgiving so they are on the same curve but that has also brought a lot of weird injury questions. I know that Von Miller is out with his MCL injury, but I am seeing conflicting information. ESPN has Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, and Mitch Morse all listed as out but that may not be the case.
BUFFALO BILLS
As you can see, Morse, Rousseau, and Epenesa were all listed as full participants (FP) every day this week in practice. Those unspecified destinations are tricky, and there are some important names on that list. It should be noted that there was also an illness going around that forced a handful of guys to miss practice on Monday. If full practice means they get the green light to play, I am also very happy to see Tremaine Edmunds back in the mix. However, this game could be very different if 6-7 key starters don’t play and the depth chart has 5 starters out. So, let’s take a look at the Pats.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | RB | Thigh | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Isaiah Wynn | OT | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| David Andrews | C | Thigh | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Yodny Cajuste | OT | Calf | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Marcus Jones | CB | Ankle | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Shoulder | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Jalen Mills | CB | Groin | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Jabrill Peppers | FS | Illness | DNP | LP | Questionable | |
| Trent Brown | OT | Illness | Questionable |
It does look like New England is dealing with some offensive line juggling as Trent Brown didn’t practice and is listed as questionable to go along with tackle Isaiah Wynn being out and center David Andrews also questionable. The Patriots do, however, typically have a convoluted injury report. Running back Damien Harris being out could be a big blow to the Pats who leaned heavily on their run game when they beat the Bills last season and will probably try to do it again since Mac Jones isn’t exactly lighting things up.
It’s not solely on Mac Jones, who has missed time, the Patriots’ offense collectively has been mediocre at best. They rank 23rd in rushing yards per game and that’s supposed to be their “thing” while they rank 19th in passing YPG. That’s why they are 18th in scoring offense at 21.7 PPG.
Even with the Bills’ offense having its struggles over the last month or so, they still are 2nd in total offense and yards per play, behind the Chiefs. They are 3rd in passing YPG, 8th in rushing YPG, and 2nd in scoring at 28.1 PPG (again to the Chiefs). The Bills are also better than NE on 3rd down, 4th down, and in the red zone (where BUF has struggled).
The defenses are pretty comparable in total defense, but neither of these teams has played all 12 games. Looking at the pass defense, New England is 9th at 198.5 YPG allowed while the Bills have struggled and fallen to 19th at 221.6 YPG. The gap is smaller in run defense with both teams in the Top 10 and BUF allowing about 4 yards fewer per contest. They are also 5th and 6th in scoring defense at just over 18 PPG each.
The elephant in the room the past few weeks has been Buffalo’s 3rd down defense. It seems like they can never quite get off the field in 3rd & medium/long situations and seeing them rank 19th in 3rd down defense reflects that. However, to give that some context, New England ranks 10th but is only 1.5% better. Buffalo is actually much worse on 4th down defense ranking 24th at 58.3% while NE is 3rd at 29.4%. That number is scary but also requires context.
The Bills play with the lead a lot and teams fear their offense, which isn’t the case with New England, so the Bills see more 4th down attempts against them and some of those conversions have been miraculous. Still, the Bills have the better red zone defense by a smidge, ranking 4th overall to the Pats’ 7th.
With Epenesa, Groot, Edmunds, and Kaiir Elam all out and Von Miller on injured reserve, an already struggling defense has its work cut out. Fortunately, Boogie Basham, Shaq Lawson, and recently re-signed A.J. Klein are all quality backups…and Tre’Davious White will play at least in some capacity with Jordan Poyer.
It is going to be cold in Foxborough and it will be imperative to find a way to run the ball with consistency which has been an issue for Ken Dorsey calling plays for the Bills. Coming off their best rushing game of the season in Week 11, it really wasn’t part of the game plan against a Lions’ defense that is horrible against the run. Frustrating to say the least and the playcalling is going to have to be on point as Morse and Dawkins appear to be out for the Bills as well, forcing key changes at two of their most solid O-line positions…and we’ve already seen some snap issues as is.
New England is going to want to move the sticks and keep Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense off the field as much as possible. If they can keep the game close, it’s probably in their favor a bit. When on defense, they are going to want to pressure the replacements on the O-line and set traps in the red zone that force Allen to escape the pocket to his right and throw back into traffic. All that is doable if they can at least run the ball with some success.
If I were the Bills, I want to make Mac Jones have to win this game. Play more 4-3, like they have shown a tad more and did against NE in the playoffs last season, and make sure you shut the run game down. Force Jones to have to make some throws in the cold and force the Pats receivers to make catches out there. Offensively, get the run game going early. I also think it’s imperative to test this NE secondary. Dawson Knox, Stefon Diggs, and Isaiah McKenzie all torched them last year so they can’t be afraid to throw I just want to take as much pressure off Allen in the first half as you can and if they can play with the lead on the scoreboard and the possession game, they should be in a good position.
I went through all that because these teams were both two of the best defenses in the league last year but the gap between the offenses has grown even more. That’s also why the particular set of injury designations is so important and what makes this game hard to pin down as a result. I am a Bills fan at the end of the day and I know they can win this game, but the injuries could be a huge issue.
Pick: BUF | ATS: NE +3.5 | O/U: Over 43.5 | Final: BUF 24 – 21 NE
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