Is it just me, or does it seem like the gap between Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football has gotten shorter as the season has progressed? Anyway, things are accelerating toward the playoffs now and the Atlanta Falcons attempt to retain a share of 1st place in the NFC South as they head to Carolina where the Panthers look to play spoiler in a divisional showdown.
(-145) ATL Falcons 4-5 @ (+122) CAR Panthers 2-7 (+2.5, O/U 42.5)
If it feels like these two teams just played one another that’s because they did, just two weeks ago in Week 8, and it was right up there with the wildest games of the season. Carolina was fresh off their upset of the Bucs and they went into Atlanta with a lot of confidence but it was a slow burn as the Panthers trailed 14-10 thanks to a pick-six right before the half. The temperature got turned way up in the 2nd half.
After combining for 24 points in the first half, it became quite a shootout the rest of the way. The teams combined for 47 points in the second half and only 4 of the 12 total drives didn’t end in points of some kind. The Falcons regained the lead just outside the 2-minute warning, turned the Panthers over on downs, and added a field goal to make it a 6-point game with just 36 seconds remaining. It looked very much over.
The Panthers needed to go 75 yards in 36 seconds, had no timeouts remaining, and needed a TD. It wasn’t looking good but PJ Walker and DJ Moore wouldn’t be denied as they connected on a 62-yard heave for the tying score. However, Moore was hit with an unsportsmanlike penalty for taking his helmet off, in celebration, after the TD. He probably should have known better, but it was still a petty flag from the officials. Eddy Pineiro missed the extra point as a result and the game went to overtime.
It all could have been forgotten when Carolina picked off Marcus Mariota for the second time and gave the ball to their offense, starting in the red zone. However, the Falcons’ defense held just enough and Pineiro missed what would have been the game-winning FG. Atlanta didn’t squander their second chance in OT. Mariota redeemed himself with a massive 30-yard scamper on a 3rd & 1 conversion from their own 46-yard line and that set the stage for Younghoe Hoo’s heroics. It pays to have a reliable kicker and Koo nailed the 41-yarder for the win.
If we are lucky, we could have a similarly entertaining game for Week 10. Both of these teams are giving up at least 25 points per game, which is bottom-6 in the league, and they are both allowing more than 375 to opposing offenses. Add to that, both of these teams are in the top-6 in penalty yardage. So, if they aren’t giving it up the traditional way, they’ll give it up on infractions. That’s a recipe for a high-scoring game and setting the over/under at 42.5 seems like an easy bet on the over.
Atlanta has been the better team this season but I still narrowly escaped taking them in Week 8. They also lost a game they should have won against the Chargers in Week 9 by fumbling away a fumble recovery to lose on a last-second FG. That might just be karma working things out.
ATLANTA FALCONS
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Terrell | CB | Hamstring | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Erik Harris | FS | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Feleipe Franks | TE | Calf | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
The Falcons are hanging in there with injuries as their left guard position has been decimated, but Cordarrelle Patterson is back and should be a big boost to an Atlanta run game that already cooked the Carolina defense for 167 yards last time. That pendulum swings both ways though, as the Panthers hung 169 rushing yards and 3 TDs of their own on the Atlanta defense.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juston Burris | SAF | Concussion | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Donte Jackson | CB | Ankle | FP | FP | FP | Questionable |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | Ankle | LP | FP | FP | Questionable |
| Rashard Higgins | WR | Illness | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Matthew Ioannidis | DT | Back | DNP | LP | FP | Questionable |
| Taylor Moton | OT | Elbow | LP | FP | Questionable |
The Panthers are okay injury-wise, but the wild card for them is the QB situation. After a couple of hot starts for PJ Walker, he came crashing back to earth and left a smoking crater where he went just 3/10 with 2 INTs in Cincinnati. Baker Mayfield came back into the lineup and tossed a couple of garbage-time TDs, but he did lead three scoring drives. Sam Darnold was activated off of injured reserve too and if the idea was really to stick with Walker, why bench him after 10 attempts? It seems like a vote of no confidence and that’s never a good thing for a locker room. Especially when you have two former 1st-round QB picks wanting to play.
(Photo Credit: Fox)
These teams are more alike than they are different. I already looked at some of the defense numbers, but their offenses stack up pretty comparably as well. Both of their passing attacks rank near the very bottom of the league in yards per game. They somehow have the exact same number of sacks given up and interception percentage, but I would give the slight edge to Atlanta’s passing attack based on efficiency. That’s why they score more.
Atlanta puts up nearly 60 more rushing YPG because they don’t end up playing from behind as often, at least not by as much. However, their yards per carry is basically the same and we saw what the Carolina ground game can do to the Falcons’ defense in Week 8. The primary difference is the level of commitment as ATL has about 100 more carries on the season, thanks in large part to Mariota’s mobility.
Having seen what Carolina has to offer and then letting one slip away last week, I am sure Arthur Smith is fully aware that his Falcons need a win now that the Bucs have tied them and have the tie-breaker. Stranger things have happened but, as I said, I think Atlanta has been the better team all season and it’s time for Flash to do his thing down the stretch.
Pick: ATL | ATS: ATL -2.5 | O/U: Over 42.5 | Final: ATL 27 – 23 CAR
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