Week 14 is upon us and that means it’s either the last week of your fantasy football season or the first round of the fantasy playoffs. While we all struggle to set our optimal lineups, it’s getting late in the real NFL regular season and there’s a lot on the line for both teams as the (6-5-1) Steelers head to Minnesota to take on the (5-7) Vikings on Thursday Night Football.
(+150) Steelers at (-175) Vikings (-3, o/u 44)
Considering what I saw in these team respective Week 13 games, it’s a little strange to see the Vikings inserted as 3-point favorites. Yeah, they’re at home but they are only 3-2 in Minnesota and are coming off a game where they struggled against a, then winless, Lions team and ultimately lost on the game’s final play. The Steelers didn’t exactly kick down the doors in Baltimore either, winning on a failed 2-point conversion attempt by the Ravens. Before I go down the rabbit hole in terms of the numbers, let’s take a look at the injury report.
Minnesota Vikings:
| Dalvin Cook | RB | Shoulder | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Adam Thielen | WR | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Blake Lynch | LB | Hip | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Christian Darrisaw | T | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Camryn Bynum | S | Ankle | LP | LP | FP | Questionable |
Pittsburgh Steelers:
| Joe Haden | CB | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Robert Spillane | LB | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| B.J. Finney | C/G | Back | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Isaiah Buggs | DE | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
It’s difficult to tell who’s in worse shape injury-wise, but I’ll give Minny a slight advantage with Cook being upgraded to questionable. He’s being labeled a game-time decision and the plan is for him to play but shoulder separation is a gnarly injury, especially for a ball carrier. You know the Steelers defense is opportunistic so don’t be too surprised to see a potentially costly fumble from Cook in this one or a very hesitant approach.
Thielen’s absence should allow Pittsburgh to double Justin Jefferson but with Joe Haden out, it’s easier said than done. It’ll be up to the Steelers’ defensive front to make Kirk Cousins uncomfortable and they are very capable of doing so. Otherwise, Jefferson should feast. On the other side of the ball, B.J. Finney being out at left guard for the Steelers could prove to be problematic as they are super thin along the O-line. However, as a team, Minny has been more effective on the ground, ranking 15th to Pittsburgh’s 29th.
Both of these teams have terrible run defense. PIT ranks 27th and MIN comes in at 29th, both allowing more than 130-yards-per-game on the ground. The Steelers are dead last in yards-per-carry allowed while the Vikes are 29th, so a lot of this game is going to come down to who can dictate the ground game better. Najee Harris is the NFL’s leading rookie rusher on the season, but his 3.6-YPC is the lowest among the Top-5 and the second-lowest in the Top-10. However, Harris is the leading receiver among the group, highlighting how big a piece of the Steelers’ offense he is. It’s very similar to how the Vikes use Cook.
Minnesota’s offense has been the better unit all season, ranking 8th overall, but the fact that they’re 5-7 on the season speaks volumes about their defense’s inconsistency. With the kind of offensive potency they have, they end up in far too many one-possession games. Fortunately for them, in this matchup, the Steelers aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard, averaging just over 20-PPG.
I’ve been on both sides of it with the Steelers and Vikings this season, picking them to win as underdogs and watching them lose as favorites. Both teams seem to win the games they are supposed to lose and vice versa, so there are no easy answers with this one.
This game is going to be about desire and who wants it more. Pittsburgh is right in the middle of it with nothing but big games left on the schedule, so they are in playoff mode right now. The Vikings have their backs against the wall as well but the way they lost to the Lions could have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. I feel like whatever I pick, I’m going to be wrong because that’s just been how it’s gone for me with these two teams. That said, I favor the Steelers’ playmakers on defense with the Vikes’ offense not at 100% in key positions.
Pick: Steelers | ATS: Steelers +3 | O/U: Over 44 | Final: PIT 26 – 24 MIN
Thanks for reading! I still believe word of mouth is the best way to help, so if you enjoy what I’m doing, please tell somebody. Liking, subscribing, and sharing go a long way too. And, as usual, be well, stay safe, and Go Bills!