Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.5, 52)
Breakdown: This was potentially targeted as Christian McCaffrey’s comeback game for the Panthers but, even though he’s off IR, he’ll be sitting out the short week. Mike Davis has been filling in nicely in his absence and Carolina is 9th in total offense and Atlanta is dead last in total defense so, this isn’t the kind of game where they need to rush McCaffrey back.
The Panthers won on the road in Atlanta, 23-16, when these two teams faced off three weeks prior. While the game was fairly close, as division games tend to be, Julio Jones wasn’t playing in that game and Todd Gurley had his best game of the season. Despite a number of heartbreaking losses this season, to their credit, Atlanta hasn’t thrown in the towel yet and there’s reason to think they can win this game.
Atlanta’s offense is 8th in scoring while Carolina’s is 20th. The points-per-game isn’t so lopsided (3.6), but it illustrates that the Panther’s favor a more low-scoring, ball-control oriented offense. A fully healthy WR group for the Falcons is a handful and the Panthers pass defense is middle of the pack so, they are most likely going to give up some yards through the air. However, Carolina’s defense also has one of the lowest TD% against, which means Atlanta’s offense could stall if they don’t get inside the 10-yard line where they can unleash Gurley.
Through seven games, Carolina has shown they are the better team but if all those last-second Ls gone Atlanta’s way they’d be 4-3 right now and this game would be huge for both teams. But still, the loss to Carolina wasn’t one of those games where they blew a late lead. So, you’ve got to believe the Panthers are rightfully favored here, especially at home.
Thursday Night Games have a tendency to get weird, thanks to the short prep week, and division games only stir the pot more. The Panthers need a win here to stay positioned in the playoff hunt but the Falcons have nothing to lose, and that makes them dangerous. My gut is telling me the Falcons will not go quietly, but my brain is telling me that their defense is way too bad to count on. Panthers it is.
Pick: Panthers
Vs Spread: Panthers -1.5
Over/Under: Under 52