(3-1)Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (3-1)Chicago Bears (+3.5, 44.5)
Breakdown: Week 5 of the NFL season gets started with a pair of 3-1 teams as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Chicago to take on the Bears. The Bucs are coming off a hard-fought, but impressive, comeback win over the Chargers while the Bears got handed their first loss at the hands of the Colts.
Tampa is trending in the right direction but I can’t say the same for Chicago. The Bears barely escaped with wins over the (1-3)Lions, (0-4)Giants, and (0-4)Falcons, edging out those games by a combined 12-points. Then they got handled for the majority of the game against the one team they have played with a winning record, Indy. Even with Nick Foles under center now, I don’t see the offense consistently putting up a lot of points. The loss of Tarik Cohen for the season will only make it more difficult to play from behind in this matchup. That’s going to be a problem against a Bucs team averaging 30-points per game.
With Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard out of the lineup, Tom Brady is still getting things done and winning games. There may even be room for Rob Gronkowski to have a bigger role with his fellow ex-Patriot. The depth and diversity at the running back position give Bruce Arians a whole lot of options too, not just in play-calling but in play design and personnel groupings. So, I expect Brady & Co. to dictate the pace of the game.
Even at 3-1, I don’t know how much CHI will factor into the playoff picture down the stretch, so the biggest storyline here is the Foles/Brady rematch. The last time these two went head-to-head it was in the Super Bowl and both guys were playing for different teams. There may not be the same franchise friction anymore, but rest assured Brady hasn’t forgotten the sting of the Super Bowl loss. If not for Foles and a very good Eagles team, the Patriots would have won 3 in a row. Maybe Tom would still be in New England.
The Bears are a lower mid-tier offense in terms of production through the air and on the ground, (18th – Rush, 19th – Pass), and 25th when it comes to scoring (21.3 ppg). The Bears’ defense isn’t the dominant unit they were a few years ago either, ranking 11th against the pass and 16th vs the run. They are fortunate to only give up 20.3-ppg (8th) but, as I mentioned earlier, the Bucs are coming in at 30-ppg (7th). Tampa obviously has a better air attack (9th) than a ground game (26th) but their run defense is actually 2nd in the NFL to the Steelers in both yards-per-game and total yards. Their 20th ranked pass defense is less than ideal but they are 10th in scoring defense at 23-ppg. If both teams play their games, Tampa wins and covers but I’ll take the over with the short week.
Pick: Bucs
Christen’s Pick: Bucs
Vs Spread: Bucs
Over/Under: Over 44.5