Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (+1, 48.5)
Breakdown: This is a huge mid-season game in the AFC South and the oddsmakers still seem to think the Colts are good for some reason, even after getting run over the by the Ravens last week. Tennessee stopped their 2-game hiccup with a win over the Bears but still come into Thursday night’s game as the 1-point underdogs at home. I don’t believe in the Colts but some of the predictive models seem to think Indy has a good shot to win this game, so let’s look at some of the particulars.
The Colts own the head-to-head rivalry, but in more recent yeast the teams have split the last six games. Tennessee has lost six of the last games at home to Indy which is maybe the most relevant series information. However, football is a game of matchups and these teams are in different places than they were last season. Colts’ QB Philip Rivers is (edit)*7-2 in his career and has played well vs the Titans but lost to them with the Chargers last season in a close game. Ryan Tannehill is 2-3 career vs the Colts but has played well in those games too, so it makes sense to see this game as a coin toss.
Tennessee has been good at home this season (4-1) but defense travels and Indy does have a highly ranked defensive unit. The Colts are 3rd against the pass, 2nd against the run, and 3rd in scoring defense to counter the Titans’ 6th ranked run attack and 7th ranked scoring offense. Indy’s offense is going to be the problem here as they are 15th in scoring, 20th in passing, and 22nd in rushing. Even though the TEN defense hasn’t been great this season (20th overall), they had a much better performance against the Bears last week to help them move up to 15th in scoring defense.
Indy is hoping to have T.Y. Hilton back for this game which would help greatly with the Titans missing Adoree’ Jackson and Dane Cruikshank from their secondary, but Hilton hasn’t been able to get on the same page with Rivers all season so I won’t hold my breath. Adam Humphries is out for the Titans as well, but all the major offensive weapons are available. This a Derrick Henry first team and I expect him to set the tone for their offense so Tannehill, A.J. Brown, and Corey Davis can get going. If both teams do their thing, I see the Titans winning a competitive game.
Pick: Titans
Vs Spread: Titans
Over/Under: Under 48.5