As we’ve seen through the first two games of the season, the lack of preseason has taken its toll on. The NFL made injured reserve exemptions for short-term injuries because they anticipated problems, but several players lost their entire seasons in Week 2. As a result, it’s a little hard to gauge matchups when the injury reports are longer than a Rite Aid receipt. I’ll continue to do my best as Week 3 kicks off with another cross-state, interconference showdown in Florida. I’ll get this game covered and come back to the rest of the picks later.
(0-2)Miami Dolphins at (1-1)Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 48)
Breakdown: The Jags are one of my favorite squads to watch because they love close games, and the Dolphins never go quietly despite being fairly outmatched more often than not. The Miami defense will continue to struggle in pass coverage without Byron Jones but Jacksonville is also missing stud wide receiver D.J. Chark so that levels things out some. I expect a little more run-heavy approach from the Jags as James Robinson has emerged as a legit starting running back. They also still have speed at WR and the Fins were awful in man coverage against the Bills last week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and his offense were able to exploit some holes in the Buffalo D and rack up 28-points led by tight end Mike Gesicki, so they’ll probably score some points against the JAX defense that’s allowed 26.5 points/game so far. However, if they don’t look good on offense, it could be time for Tua Tagovailoa get in at QB for Miami. The quality of competition favors the Fins and they hung around in both of their first two games but I’m still leaning towards Jacksonville here. I just didn’t like what I saw from the Miami defense at all last week and the Jaguars offense is averaging 28.5 points/game.
Like we saw last week, two bad defenses going head-to-head usually results in a lot of points scored but the over/under at 48-points seems like a lot for this particular matchup.
Pick: Jaguars
Vs Spread: Jaguars
I’ll get going on the rest of the picks while I watch this game so I can have those up tomorrow.