Unfortunately, the big Thanksgiving Day showdown in the AFC North between the unbeaten Steelers and struggling Ravens was postponed after a number of Ravens players tested positive for Covid-19. It was only moved to Sunday for the time being but, with Pittsburgh already having a postponement, it will be difficult to reschedule beyond this weekend. With that game off the table, there is no evening game on Turkey Day and we’re left with some inconsequential matchups. I won’t be watching the parade, so let’s take a look at what we’re left with.
(3-7)Houston Texans @ (4-6)Detroit Lions (+3, 51)
Breakdown: This probably should have been between a couple of teams vying for Wild Card contention but it’s not looking like Houston or Detroit is going to be in that conversation. The Lions looked awful last week, getting shut out by a Carolina team with a middling defense and missing their All-Pro running back and starting quarterback. Deshaun Watson led the Texans past the Patriots and has continued to have a solid statistical season. Using that as a sample size, I favor Houston.
The Texans have played in a number of close games and even though they have lost most of them, they know who they are. Detroit has no identity. They stacked up on running backs but are 29th in rushing. They have good receivers and a veteran QB but they’re 15th in passing. And it’s not like they play defense either (29th in points against) and they are 1-3 at home. The one advantage they have in this matchup is that they always play on Thanksgiving, with a 37-41-2 record overall. Maybe their prep is a little more fine-tuned for a Thursday morning game but they are still severely shorthanded.
Wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola are still out for the Lions along with cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Mike Ford. Kenny Stills is sitting out for the Texans, but they are still mostly healthy. I already said I’m never picking Detriot to cover again, and seeing how they played shorthanded last week is a good indicator that Houston leaves Ford Field with the W.
Pick: Texans
ATS: Texans -3
Over/Under: Under 51
(3-7)Washington Football Team @ (3-7)Dallas Cowboys (-3, 46.5)
Breakdown: Somehow, someway, 1st place in the NFC East is potentially up for grabs as Washington heads to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. Apparently, Andy Dalton used his time on IR to figure some things out about his new offense as The Boys finally got back in the win column surprising the Vikings 31-28. Washington was losing to Cincinnati until Joe Burrow’s knee injury but wound up scoring 13 unanswered points to win after that.
When these teams met a month ago in Washington, that’s the game Andy Dalton was KOed. WASH would win that game 25-3 so I’ve gotta think Dallas will respond with a better performance this time out as they look to get some revenge. The Boys were positioned to be a Super Bowl contender before the injury to Dak Prescott and Dalton was an insurance policy, so they should be the better team. Alex Smith has done a nice job leading the Football Team and they dominated through the air and on the ground in the last meeting so they should probably have reasonable success the second time around.
Much like the other matchup, Dallas has a significant experience edge on Thanksgiving Day games but with a new coach and a new starting QB, it’ll be tough to rely on that and they got smashed on by my Bills last season even with the old system in place. The Boys have a better offense statistically but have been held to 10-points or less three times in the five games since Prescott went down. Dalton missed 2 ½ of those games as well so we hadn’t seen the full look Boys’ offense until they shocked Minnesota. Washington is a low output offensive group, averaging 20-pts/game and ranking 24th in both rushing and passing.
I’m no Cowboys fan and they have burned me already multiple times this season, but I’m leaning in that direction. This wound up being a big division game and Washington is the one missing some pieces on defense. While they haven’t looked like it this season, Dallas was built for this. It’ll be close and I’ll hedge my bets a little but I think the Boys edge out a close game at home.
Pick: Cowboys
ATS: Washington +3
Over/Under: Over 46.5
Stay Safe & Happy Thanksgiving!