I bit off a little more than I could chew, pouring over the numbers for the Colts at Bills game, so I don’t want to go that deep again. However, there are a pair of other playoff games on Saturday that I want to take a look at.
(NFC #6) Los Angeles Rams at (NFC #3) Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 42.5)
Breakdown: These two teams split their regular-season matchups with each team winning on their home field. The most recent of those games saw the Seahawks win, 20-9, at Lumen Field (still sounds weird) in Week 16. That’s when and where Jared Goff broke his thumb. He’s had it surgically repaired since then but it’ll be something to watch, especially when Goff hasn’t been playing well lately regardless.
The Rams defense is excellent and they’ve given Russell Wilson problems and the Hawks problems in both games, racking up 11-sacks in the process. Seattle’s defense is much improved since acquiring Carlos Dunlap from the Bengals and getting Jamal Adams healthy, and was one of the Top-5 units in the final month of the season. However, LA’s defense has been Top-5 all season and they rank 1st in terms of scoring, total yards, passing yards, avg. points per drive, and net yards per drive. Defensive Edge: Rams
Offense is a different story. Their yardage numbers are very comparable but the Rams actually rank higher in total offense (11th), and both passing (13th) and rushing (10th), with Seattle ranking 17th, 16th, and 12th in those respective categories. While the Rams do carry the higher season rankings, the yardage advantages are negligible with Seattle only trailing by 7.5-total yards per game. At the end of the game, it’s about scoring points not amassing yardage and the number that really sticks out is the Hawks’ 55-39 edge in total touchdowns. Seattle averages almost a full TD more than LA, outscores them nearly 2-to-1 on points per drive, and are almost 20% more effective scoring TDs in the red zone at 73%(4th). The Rams also turn the ball over more, with 25 to the Seahawks’ 18. Offensive Edge: Seahawks
I don’t think the kick return game is going to be much of a factor in this one as both teams are near the bottom of the league in return yards but, since this is a division matchup and they are usually close, special teams will likely play a role. Jason Myers hasn’t missed a field goal for SEA this season, going 24/24, and the Rams had some issues before settling on Matt Gay who has gone 14/16 on the season. Myers has earned the trust factor for this game but it’s hard to say it’s a significant advantage. Special Teams Edge: Push
The sticking point for this matchup is and will always be Wilson over Goff. Even though his offensive line will likely be getting ravaged by Aaron Donald, Russ just finds a way to make big plays when it matters. Goff has almost never shown the ability to do that and doesn’t play well consistently, particularly down the stretch this season. It says a lot about the Rams that their most impactful players are on the defensive side of the ball. One of them, Aaron Donald, always plays well against Seattle and the other, Jalen Ramsey, has held DK Metcalf in check in both games. Wilson will have more opportunity to impact the outcome of the game with the ball in his hands and I’ll have to side with the guy wearing the Super Bowl ring. X-Factor Edge: Seahawks
The Rams didn’t look too good the last couple weeks and damn near missed the playoffs but their 5-3 mark over the final eight games of the season was good enough. Seattle wasn’t flawless and went 6-2 over the same stretch. While LA has big wins over Tampa Bay and Seattle, half their losses are to losing teams (49ers 2x, Jets) and Seattle only lost to a sub-500 team once (Giants). Strength of Schedule Edge: Seahawks
Home field advantage won’t be the same without the 12s in attendance for the Hawks, but it’s going to be a pretty cold day for a Southern California team that plays indoors. Plus, Seattle is 7-1 at home while the Rams are only 4-4 on the road. I fear the Rams’ defense can carry them but there’s just not enough evidence to suggest the Rams will win.
Pick: Seahawks
ATS: Seahawks -3.5
Over/Under: Over 42
(NFC #5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (NFC #4) Washington (+8, 44.5)
Breakdown: The spread on this game moved down from 8.5 to 8 and so did the Over/Under, from 45 to 44.5, so the early money is favoring a low scoring game where Washington keeps it close. I tend to agree because of their defense and the fact Tampa Bay has not performed well in primetime and would be winless in nationally televised games if not for being gifted a game against the Giants.
The Bucs will have Mike Evans but he’s not going to be 100% and they will have to do without their star linebacker Devin White who’s on the Covid list. Similarly, Washington will be without the leader of their defense, Thomas Davis Sr., who’s out with a knee injury. They also have Terry McLaurin, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson, and Kevin Pierre-Louis nursing injuries. Health Edge: Bucs
Both of these teams have good defenses, but Washington rounded into the slightly better overall unit by season’s end. Washington has the #2 ranked pass defense while the Bucs have the #1 ranked rush defense, so both teams are strong against their opponents strengths and both teams are Top-5 in yards allowed and Top-10 in scoring defense. It’ll be more problematic if Washington can’t establish the run since keeping Brady on the sidelines is part of the recipe to beat him. Defensive Edge: Push
Even though neither team runs the ball effectively (both Bottom-10), Tampa has a decided advantage in the passing game. The Bucs are 2nd in passing and 3rd in scoring while Washington ranks 25th in both those categories. Additionally, Tampa is 7th in red zone TD%, 5th in points per drive, and 6th in scoring efficiency. Their identity is tied to their offensive production and there’s no question that’s their biggest advantage. Offensive Edge: Bucs
Tampa Bay had one of the easiest schedules in the league and lost to most of the good teams they played, but they did have a dominant victory over the Packers early in the year. Washington has lost several teams with losing records and that’ll happen when 7-9 wins the division and gets you in the playoffs. Their schedule was tougher than the Bucs’, but they didn’t find their identity until midseason either. Both teams went 5-3 to close the year out but the bad losses hurt Washington here. Strength of Schedule: Bucs
Both of these teams have stars but it’s all about Tom Brady in this matchup. TB12 had one of his better statistical years. Even though I’ve seen him struggle with accuracy at times, he threw for his 4th highest yardage total, 2nd most touchdowns, and 5th best passing accuracy of his career. Alex Smith, on the other hand, isn’t fully healthy and doesn’t even have a full season under his belt coming back from a horrific leg injury. He’s played well in moments, but Washington still doesn’t score more than 20-pts very often. X-Factor Edge: Bucs
As a Bills fan, I can’t stand Tom Brady and enjoy watching him lose. I would love to see the Bucs get knocked out of the playoffs early just to see that look on Brady’s face. Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Pick: Buccaneers
ATS: Washington +8
Over/Under: Under 45