Thursday Night Football went almost exactly as scripted. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams dominated en route to a 34-17 Packers’ victory. The Niners’ defense tried to keep them in the game early on, forcing a pair of Green Bay punts in the first quarter after their initial opening-drive TD. With the score 7-3 at the end of the first quarter, it looked like it was going to be a competitive game. However, an interception by Nick Mullens and the continued lack of offensive success opened the door to 14 unanswered 2nd quarter points for the Pack. It was 21-3 at the half and the game was all but over at that point.
Despite the one-sided loss, San Francisco got to see a lot out of 3rd-year receiver Richie James who had a great night and put an exclamation on it with a 41-yd TD during garbage time. Sure, SF was playing from behind the majority of the night but 9-rec for 184-yds, and a score is nothing to sneeze at. Jerick McKinnon also got to put in some work for the Niners and his last-second TD is going to come back to burn me in fantasy this week, but it was nice to see him working as the lead back again after so many setbacks due to injury.
The win bumps Green Bay to 6-2 which gives them control of the NFC North, but I can’t rank them any higher than 3rd in the conference right now. San Francisco, on the other hand, falls to 4-5 but they are far from out of the wildcard race. The problem is five of their last seven games come against teams with winning records, so it’ll be an uphill battle. They aren’t the type to lay down and lose, so it’ll be interesting to see how they approach the final stretch of the season.
(6-1)Seattle Seahawks at (6-2)Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 54)
Breakdown: This could easily be the game of the week, but it’s definitely the game of the morning on Sunday. It’s going to be a rough one for me. There are no teams I know better than these two and as much as I don’t want to see either of them lose this game, that’s most likely going to be the case. In a battle of division leaders, the Seahawks are rightly favored by a field goal as their defense tends to give up most of their points in the second half of games and the Bills’ offensive strengths will attack those weaknesses in the secondary. Seattle rebounded from their only loss with a quality division over the 49ers while Buffalo picked up back-to-back division wins over the Jets and Pats after consecutive losses at the top of the AFC. Edging out close wins against two teams with a combined record of 2-13 doesn’t exactly give me faith the Bills are ready for this game. Averaging 21-points in those two games isn’t a good sign either. I know the Hawks tend to give up a lot defensively when playing with the lead, but I think Seattle’s defense is better than that of either NYJ or NE and they are getting Jamal Adams back. Seattle has been more consistent and closer to playing their best than the Bills. I’ll have to trust that I know my teams well enough.
Pick: Seahawks
Vs Spread: Seahawks
Over/Under: Over 54
(3-4)Denver Broncos at (2-6)Atlanta Falcons (-4, 50)
Breakdown: Games like this are always tough to call. Neither team has been great all season but the Falcons have won 2-of-3 and could realistically be a 5-3 team right now. The Broncos have won 3-of-4 and are coming off a huge comeback win over the Chargers and have hung tough against some of the best AFC teams. Conventional wisdom says this is going to be a close game and that would tend to favor the home team. Denver is without their top cornerback A.J. Bouye while Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley is questionable at receiver. The Falcons still have a lot of receiving weapons, a healthy Julio Jones, a comparable run game, and the veteran advantage. You’d think I would have learned my lesson about picking Atlanta but I guess not.
Pick: Falcons
Vs Spread: Falcons
Over/Under: Over 50
(5-3)Chicago Bears at (5-2)Tennessee Titans (-5.5, 46.5)
Breakdown: The Titans are tied for the AFC South lead and the Bears are trying to hang tough in the NFC North, so this is a big game for both these teams coming off back-to-back losses. I’m not really sold on the Bears as contenders, but they are consistent and their defense keeps ‘em in most games. The CHI offense may not be the most high-powered but the Titans’ defense has been one of the lesser units in the league this season. There’s no secret when it comes to Tennessee’s approach, it’s just a matter of how committed they stay to it. Give the ball to Derrick Henry and let him run downhill until the opposing defense gets tired. The Bears’ run defense hasn’t been terrible but they aren’t a unit that’s built to deal with guys like Henry. He’s a bulldozer but, if Chicago can control the clock and limit opportunities for Ryan Tannehill and the rest of the Titans’ offense, they may be able to force TEN into some riskier chances. Ultimately, I think the Titans are the better team but they are far from unbeatable.
Pick: Titans
Vs Spread: Bears
Over/Under: Over 46.5
(3-4)Detroit Lions at (2-5)Minnesota Vikings (-4, 52)
Breakdown: Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was activated off the Covid-IR list, so he’s most likely going to start for Detroit. That’s great news since he wasn’t slotted to play in this game and Kenny Golladay was already ruled out with a hip injury. Basically all the corners for the Vikes have been ruled out and, with Stafford in, you’d think Detroit is going to test the secondary early and often. There’s no question that Minny has been one of the bigger disappointments of the 2020 season, but they’ve played better as of late and Dalvin Cook is going to be a handful for any defense. Neither team is good on defense end so the smart play for MIN is to be run-centric and not give Stafford too many looks at the wounded secondary.
Pick: Vikings
Vs Spread: Vikings
Over/Under: Over 52
(5-2)Baltimore Ravens at (5-2)Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 45)
Breakdown: I’ve heard a lot of noise about the Colts pulling the upset in this game while the small spread would indicate the oddsmakers wanted early money coming in on the Ravens. The Colts are bringing in a top-5 defensive unit into this game, but they’ve had one of the easier schedules this season with a combined opponent win percentage of only 37%. The Ravens are bringing in a top-10 defense of their own, but their comb. opp. win. pct. is 51% and they have only lost to the very top of the AFC food chain. Baltimore also ranks 1st in rushing and 8th in scoring, so why some “experts” think Indy gets this game is beyond me. The Ravens are the better team, they’ve played better competition, and I don’t think it’s close. Although the lighting in Lucas Oil Stadium is a problem in that morning game, I see Rivers getting picked a couple times en route to a Ravens victory.
Pick: Ravens
Vs Spread: Ravens -2.5
Over/Under: Under 45
(3-5)Carolina Panthers at (7-1)Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5 52.5)
Breakdown: Christian McCaffrey makes his return in a big game for Carolina as they face the Chiefs in Kansas City. Carolina has been skidding as of late, losing three one-score games in a row after three consecutive wins. Kansas City doesn’t “need” this game, but Carolina absolutely does, so I can see them making this a fight as much as they can. The Panthers are 4-4 against the spread this season and 10.5-pts is still a lot. KC is 6-2 ATS including two double-digit covers, so I can see the logic there. However, CAR is going to go all in on winning this game with their star player back in the fold and KC is 29th in run defense. So, I feel it’s going to be close and I need to listen to my gut more.
Pick: Chiefs
Vs Spread: Panthers
Over/Under: Over 52.5
(1-6)Houston Texans at (1-6)Jacksonville Jaguars (+7, 51.5)
Breakdown: Beater alert! This game wasn’t good the first time these two teams played but it did get the Texans their single victory this season. Gardner Minshew II is out with a lingering thumb injury which means rookie QB Jake Luton will be getting the start. He’s 6’6” and had a good final year at Oregon State, so I’m sure he’s excited to get this opportunity and he’ll bring a different skillset to the QB position. I already called an end to Minshew mania so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Luton become the full-time starter if he looks halfway decent vs the Texans. However, that’ll be easier said than done with rain in the forecast and a Houston defense that already dominated the Jags’ offense just about a month ago. Even with a number of linebackers missing for HOU, I’m sure J.J. Watt is more than willing to welcome Luton to the NFL.
Pick: Texans
Vs Spread: Texans
Over/Under: Under 51.5
(1-7)New York Giants at (2-5)Washington Football Team (-3, 41.5)
Breakdown: This would be a serious beater too if it weren’t such a meaningful game in the NFC East. The Giants are coming off a heartbreaker where they played their best game of the season vs the Bucs. They should gain some confidence from that performance and take some pride in the fact that Tampa needed substantial help from the refs to win that game. Both of Washington’s wins are division games and a win here would make them a serious threat to the Eagles. It was a 20-19 win for the Giants when these teams played three weeks ago but that included Washington’s failed 2-pt conversion at the end of the game. Over New York’s last four games, they’ve lost by a combined 6-pts, so they could very well be a 4-3 team right now. Washington hasn’t been competitive with any of the good teams they’ve played so I’m thinking the G-Men are better but they are dealing with a short week and a Washington team coming off their bye. Ugh.
Pick: Washington
Vs Spread: Giants
Over/Under: Over 41.5
(4-3)Las Vegas Raiders at (2-5)Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 53)
Breakdown: The oddsmakers are still sweet on the Chargers for whatever reason, setting them up as 1-pt favorites at home. I get that Herbert is exciting and they’ve hung in there with some good teams, but they haven’t won any of those. The Raiders haven’t always looked great but they have won some big games. It’s safe to say the myth of the Bolts having a good defense has pretty much been squashed. Their defense is, however, better than the Raiders’ and, in what should be fairly high scoring, that may come in handy. Ultimately, these teams are very similar and are close in most categories but I’ll side Derek Carr who’s been playing well and has the experience edge.
Pick: Raiders
Vs Spread: Raiders
Over/Under: Over 53
(7-0)Pittsburgh Steelers at (2-6)Dallas Cowboys (+13.5, 42)
Breakdown: Rumor has it that the Cowboys may be without Ezekiel Elliott for this matchup, but it’s not like it was going to matter anyway. Dallas is in shambles and even a Steelers team that shows up hungover and disinterested should win.
Pick: Steelers
Vs Spread: Steelers
Over/Under: Under 42
(4-3)Miami Dolphins at (5-2)Arizona Cardinals (-6, 47.5)
Breakdown: Although Miami got a big win over the Rams last week with Tua starting at QB but, to be honest, the offense didn’t look good. The Cardinals have won three in a row and had the bye week to get a look at the Fins’ new QB. Despite the performance against the Rams, Miami’s defense hasn’t been a particularly good one this season and the Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins connection is a lot to deal with. There is no revenge game for Kenyan Drake who never really broke out as a star in Miami as he is out due to injury. I have no reason to think AZ will lose this game, but I’ve been wrong before.
Pick: Cardinals
Vs Spread: Cardinals
Over/Under: Over 47.5
(5-2)New Orleans Saints at (6-2)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 50.5)
Breakdown: Sunday Night Football gets a doozie as the Saints head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers with the top of the NFC South up for grabs. It’s Brees vs Brady 2020 Round 2. After a rocky 1-2 start, the Saints have rattled off 4 wins in a row without Michael Thomas for any of those. That’s a testament to the culture in New Orleans and the coaching of Sean Payton. The Bucs are coming off a game where they needed a lot of help from the officials to beat the Giants, but they are adding Antonio Brown into the mix for this game. The NO defense has improved since their catastrophic start but still ranks 23rd in points-allowed-per-game, but they have the 3rd ranked run defense to go along with a middle of the pack passing D. Tampa’s got the better defense in both categories, but I was surprised to see the Saints have the better offense by the numbers. Although it’s close, NO puts up more yardage both passing and rushing and their ppg is comparable. They’ve just been winning in the shadows while TB has gotten the headlines. The Bucs are rightly favored here but, make no mistake, this is going to be a game. There’s rain in the forecast so this is going to be an execution based game and I think that favors the Saints. They could win the game outright but the addition of Brown is a big X-factor in this matchup.
Pick: Bucs
Vs Spread: Saints
Over/Under: Over 50.5
(0-8)New England Patriots at (2-5)New York Jets (+7, 42)
Breakdown: Monday Night Football isn’t so lucky when it comes to matchups. Both of these teams have proven to be really bad but there are levels to the garbage heap. The injury report for this game is ridiculous on both sides. New York has 2 players out, 4 doubtful including QB Sam Darnold and K Sam Ficken, and 5 questionable. The Pats will be without WR K’Neal Harry and RB J.J. Taylor and they have 17 questionable. I imagine most of those guys will end up playing in some capacity and Cam Newton will still be the difference maker although he hasn’t played well this season. As long as he doesn’t make any catastrophic mistakes, NE should be fine. The Jets are 1-7 ATS this season including 6 double-digit losses and one 9-pt loss. So, I’m thinking 7-pts is generous, even in this matchup.
Pick: Patriots
Vs Spread: Patriots
Over/Under: Under 42
| Nick | Vs Spread | Over/Under | Christen | Vanger | Toast |
| Packers | Packers -6 | Under 50 | Packers | Packers -6 | Packers -6 |
| Seattle | Seattle -2.5 | Under 54 | Seahawks | Bills +2.5 | Bills +2.5 |
| Falcons | Falcons -4 | Over 50 | Falcons | Falcons -4 | Broncos +4 |
| Titans | Bears +5.5 | Over 46.5 | Titans | Titans -5.5 | Titans -5.5 |
| Vikings | VIkings -4 | Over 52 | Vikings | Vikings -4 | Vikings -4 |
| Ravens | Ravens -2.5 | Under 45 | Ravens | Ravens -2.5 | Ravens -2.5 |
| Chiefs | Panthers +10.5 | Over 52.5 | Chiefs | Chiefs -10.5 | Panthers +10.5 |
| Texans | Texans -7 | Under 51.5 | Texans | Texans -7 | Texans -7 |
| Washington | Giants +3 | Over 41.5 | Giants | Washington -3 | Giants +3 |
| Raiders | Raiders +1 | Over 53 | Chargers | Chargers -1 | Raiders +1 |
| Steelers | Steelers -13.5 | Over 42 | Steelers | Steelers -13.5 | Steelers 13.5 |
| Cardinals | Cardinals -6 | Over 47.5 | Cardinals | Cardinals -6 | Fins +6 |
| Bucs | Saints -4.5 | Over 50.5 | Saints | Bucs -4.5 | N/A |
| Pats | Pats -7 | Under 42 | Patriots | Jets +7 | N/A |