I have been stuck in bye-week hell for the last three weeks, so my fantasy teams are all going nowhere fast. The good news is that I’m not alone and it’s almost over! So, let’s take a quick look back at the Thursday game between the Eagles and Texans before we dive into the rest of the Week 9 games.
While Philadelphia would win the game 29-17, Eagles fans and anyone who picked them in survivor pool was likely sweating as the Texans came out looking good early. Houston jumped out to an early 7-0 but the Eagles responded with back-to-back touchdown drives as you’d expect the better team to do. However, the Texans responded with another good looking drive to tie the game before the half which was aided by a missed FG for Philly.
Houston going into the half tied was something I didn’t expect and they were able to wrestle the possession lead away too before Davis Mill threw the first of two costly interceptions. Philly punished that turnover with a TD to A.J. Brown and never looked back.
The Texans managed a field goal in response but the Eagles answered with another TD, this time to Dallas Goedert, and converted teh 2-pt conversion to make it a two TD game. Houston decided to not risk a 4th & 14 as time began to slip away and Mills threw another pick on their following drive to wrap it up.
Good teams win close games where they aren’t firing on all cylinders against bad teams and the Eagles did just that.
(-160 LA Chargers 4-3 @ (+135) ATL Falcons 4-4 (+3, O/U 49.5)
The injuries issues and general lack of consistent quality for the Chargers were already enough to have me stand with Atlanta as the upset before I heard that Cordarrelle Patterson was going to be back for this one. The spread hasn’t moved yet, but I am even more happy with the Falcons’ chances in this one now. Sure, the Chargers are coming off their bye but they look more beat up than when they went in.
Pick: ATL | ATS: ATL +3 | O/U: Under 49.5
(-210) MIA Dolphins 5-3 @ (+175) CHI Bears (+4.5, O/U 45.5)
Chicago has started to play better football as of late and it was a good sign that the Bears added Chase Claypool but they also moved their best defensive player in Roquon Smith at the trade deadline while Miami added Bradley Chubb and Jeff Wilson. This will be a more interesting matchup than it would have been at the beginning of the season but Miami’s ability to, not only, make big plays but also to comeback late in games is tough combo to handle. Moreso now.
Pick: MIA | ATS: Bears +4.5 | O/U: Over 45.5
(+270) CAR Panthers 2-6 @ (-345) CIN Bengals 4-4 (-7, O/U 42.5)
Freedom to fail is a big thing and we’ve seen it work for Carolina. There is no pressure anymore and they have played much better since moving on from their stars. Go figure. Cincy still needs this game and maybe more for them as a group than for the standings. They have to show that they can win games without Ja’Marr Chase or their season is basically a wrap anyway and necessity is an important piece of the puzzle. I will take them to win but I like Carolina to cover.
Pick: CIN | ATS: CAR +7 | O/U: Over 42.5
(-190) GB Packers 3-5 @ (+158) DET Lions 1-6 (+3.5, O/U 49.5)
Aaron Rodgers said going to Buffalo as massive underdogs was maybe the best thing for the Packers and he may have been right. They got the ground game going and saw what the top of the food chain looks like. Detroit let one slip away against the Fins and then traded their starting tight end to a division rival while missing a lot at WR. It’s a weird move that suggest the decision to tank might have come down from the front office. GB needs this one and the game they played against the Bills would get the job done. It’s an uphill battle for Detroit, even though they have shown they score quite a lot at home.
Pick: GB | ATS: GB -3.5 | O/U: Under 49.5
(+210) IND Colts 3-4-1 @ (-260) NE Patriots 4-4 (-6, O/U 40.5)
The Colts are going downhill in a hurry with Jonathan Taylor now sidelined with injury in the wake of Matt Ryan’s benching. Technically they are still in the thick of things but NE is too and Belichick gives young QBs plenty of trouble.
Pick: NE | ATS: NE -5.5 | O/U: Under 40.5
(-650) BUF Bills 6-1 @ (+460) NY Jets 5-3 (+11.5, O/U 46)
The Jets are dealing with the injury bug and facing a very good defensive unit shorthanded. I would have preferred to see this matchup with both teams at full strength but the Bills will be without Jordan Poyer too. Tre’Davious White, however, is on track to play which is a welcome sight to Bills fans. It’s a big spread but if all goes right, I don’t fear it. Bills by a Billion.
Pick: BUF | ATS: BUF -11.5 | O/U: Under 46
(-170) MIN Vikings 6-1 @ (+143) WSH Commanders 4-4 (+3, O/U 43.5)
Is this a Kirk Cousins revenge game? Does it count when Kirk already got his revenge? I don’t think so. Washington has put a nice run together with Taylor Heinicke at QB and I like to see that, but it’s going to be on their defense to hold up. It’s easier said than done with key linebacker injuries vs a Dalvin Cook and play-action attack. Minny has to take an L at some point but this is a good spot for them to keep rolling.
Pick: MIN | ATS: MIN -3 | O/U: Over 43.5
(-135) LV Raiders 2-5 @ (+115) JAX Jaguars 2-6 (+2, O/U 48)
How are the Raiders as bad as they are? Tough to say, but if there was a gettable game this would be it. The Jags made some moves to help themselves next season so they could be in tank mode, but the Raiders are still a scary pick. Maybe if Darren Waller comes back that’ll help, but this is really must-win territory for the Raiders if they even want to sniff the playoffs. Going to JAX from the west isn’t an easy ride though. I think I’ll be wrong either way, so Raiders?
Pick: LVR | ATS: LVR -2 | O/U: Over 48
(+105) SEA Seahawks 5-3 @ (-125) AZ Cardinals 3-5 (-2, O/U 49)
This is a more intriguing game with DeAndre Hopkins back in the fold but the Seattle defense has some young playmakers and the Cards are missing at least 2 (maybe 3) offensive lineman. Robbie Anderson has fallen back down the depth chart after being acquired by AZ to be a deep threat (not a good sign) and Budda Baker is questionable now too along with James Conner. Seattle has found their identity and have been more consistent this year as a result. I don’t think it will be 19-9 again, but Seattle is +105 for a reason and I’ll take them to win as the slightest of underdogs.
Pick: SEA | ATS: SEA +2 | O/U: Under 49
(+130) LA Rams 3-4 @ (-155) TB Buccaneers 3-5 (-3, O/U 42.5)
Both of these teams are shells of the teams that met in the playoffs last year and it’s hard to figure out who is worse. The Rams have a lot of new pieces in place while the Bucs just seem like they can’t get it together and both have been navigating injury issues. The Rams looks like they were about to find some life before getting gutted in a second half where they didn’t score last week. Tampa found some garbage time rythym after blowing an early lead, so who knows. I’ve gotta pick somebody, so I’ll go with the Bucs. I hate it already.
Pick: TB | ATS: TB -3 | O/U: Under 42.5
(+460) TEN Titans 5-2 @ (-650) KC Chiefs 5-2 (-12.5, O/U 46)
The Titans have done a nice job getting to 5-2 but they haven’t beaten any team with a winning record. Add to that a bunch of injuries in the WR room and Ryan Tannehill maybe being out too, it a bad recipe. If Malik Willis starts, KC should be too much even if Derrick Henry runs for 200 yards. The real question for me is the spread. At 12.5 points oddsmakers obviously feel like Tannehill isn’t playing but that’s kinda trap territory. The Chiefs are coming off their bye week too, so I expect them to be ready.
Pick: KC | ATS: KC -12.5 | O/U: Under 46
(-135) BAL Ravens 5-3 @ (+115) NO Saints 3-5 (+2.5, O/U 47.5)
With the recent release of the Alvin Kamara altercation video, there’s a reasonable chance that he doesn’t play…especially with an extra day and all the spotlight being on that National TV game on Monday. I was leaning Ravens anyway because I liked their adjustments last week and Isaiah Likely is going to be a big weapon for them with or without Mark Andrews. This should be a fun one either way.
Pick: BAL | ATS: BAL -2.5 | O/U: Over 47.5
Thanks for reading! I still believe word of mouth is the best way to help, so if you enjoy what I’m doing, please tell somebody. And if you have a comment, I’d love to hear it! Liking, subscribing, and sharing go a long way too. And, as usual, be well, stay safe, and Go Bills!