With a regular schedule under my belt, I was able to get back on track with the Thursday Night Football games and started a new streak thanks to the Cardinals’ 42-34 win over the Saints in Arizona.
I picked the Saints to cover 2.5 which in hindsight was foolish because I had also taken the Cards to win and the over at 43.5 so the odds of it being decided by less than a field goal was unlikely. Even though I figured it would be high-scoring, I didn’t anticipate the kind of shootout we got.
Things started off like I expected, with the Saints getting out to lead early and trying to establish the run. Even after an interception in the end zone snipped what would have been a nice 15-play scoring drive, New Orleans still worked their way to a 14-6 lead behind some big plays. Then disaster struck.
Arizona tied the game with a touchdown drive and 2-pt conversion thanks in large part to the return of DeAndre Hopkins and a surprising rushing attack with their top-2 backs out. When New Orleans got the ball back and tried to respond, Andy Dalton threw pick-sixes on back-to-back possessions and found themselves on the wrong side of a 22-point swing before the half.
Down 28-14 to start the second half, NO managed a FG drive but they were still down by 11 points and the next TD by the Cardinals would put the game in garbage time territory. The Saints would inch closer and the Cards would respond the rest of the way, but the final score was closer than the game itself.
(+235) ATL Falcons 3-3 @ (-292) CIN Bengals (-6.5, O/U 47.5)
As much as I like the Falcons and what Arthur Smith has done down there, this is the Bengals time to seize the opportunity. After a hard-earned road win last week, Burrow and company return home with confidence. Atlanta is 6-0 against the spread this season and they can score, so asking the Bengals to cover is rough.
Pick: CIN| ATS: ATL +6.5 | O/U: Over 47.5
(+235) DET Lions 1-4 @ (-292) DAL Cowboys 4-2 (-6.5, O/U 49)
Detroit is still dealing with a lot of injuries and just added D.J. Chark to the IR list, much to my chagrin, and Dallas is getting healthier on offense every week. Dak is back and that’s a bad recipe for a DET team that already has terrible defense. The Lions’ formerly #1 offense in the league was shut out before their bye week and the Cowboys’ defense is a tall mountain to climb. I’m avoiding DET where I can.
Pick: DAL | ATS: DAL -6.5 | O/U: Under 49.5
(+118) IND Colts 3-2-1 @ (-140) TEN Titans 3-2 (-2.5, O/U 41.5)
Ryan Tannehill is something like 5-1 vs Indy since joining the Titans and there are just some matchups like that. The last time these teams met, I picked the Titans and then backslid to the Colts. Both teams have some keys guys out and I feel like I will be wrong no matter what I go with, but I have to pick the Titans at home.
Pick: TEN | ATS: TEN -2.5 | O/U: Over 41.5
(-220) GB Packers 3-3 @ (+180) WSH Commanders 2-4 (+4.5, O/U 41.5)
Who are the Packers? That is the question of the year in the NFC North. I didn’t expect them to be good, but I did expect better than what I have seen. They are fortunate that Washington is even worse and missing their starting QB. In my desperation for a fantasy QB, I turned to a man I didn’t fully understand. That man is Taylor Heinicke. I hope he has a great fantasy day playing from behind, but if the Packers lose this game they officially suck. I’m already regretting this pick.
Pick: GB | ATS: GB -4.5 | O/U: Over 41.5
(-700) TB Buccaneers 3-3 @ (+500) CAR Panthers 1-5 (-13, O/U 39.5)
If the Bucs don’t take care of business against the worst team in the league that is also in the middle of a fire sale as they tank for the #1 overall pick, they officially suck too. Covering 13 points is still a lot in the NFL and Tampa hasn’t shown they can score a lot, so I will have fun and take CAR to cover…somehow.
Pick: TB| ATS: CAR +13 | O/U: Under 39.5
(+143) NY Giants 5-1 @ (-170) JAX Jaguars 2-4 (-3, O/U 43.5)
I’m a bit confused as to why the Giants are underdogs in this one, but every time I say that I get burned. Does that mean I am going to stop? Hell no. The Giants are a team that doesn’t fold, they have the comebacks and the record to show it, and they are the better team. If it were blazing hot in Jacksonville I may have picked differently, but fading the Jags is the only play for me right now. If you want underdog value, this is the pick.
Pick: NYG | ATS: NYG +3 | O/U: Over 43.5
(+228) CLE Browns 2-4 @ (-285) BAL Ravens 3-3 (-6.5, O/U 46)
Cleveland has fallen on hard times. Their defense was supposed to get them through the first part of the season while they waited for their sex-offender QB to take the reigns, but it’s been shit. In fairness, the Ravens’ defense has been too but I would lean toward their offensive skillset. The Browns can win, but as long as Lamar Jackson isn’t turning it over it’s a Ravens’ W. It’s probably close though.
Pick: BAL | ATS: CLE +6.5 | O/U: Over 46
(-125) Ny Jets 4-2 @ (+105) DEN Broncos 2-4 (+1.5, O/U 36.5)
I wish the Jets were underdogs here and it’s honestly surprising to see them as only narrow favorites. Denver has been abysmal on offense, but their defense is strong. However, Russell Wilson said “Let’s Ride” the pine this week as he is sidelined with a hamstring injury. It’s Brett Rypien time and the Jets’ defense has been quietly pretty good too. The only thing I really want is a Latavius Murray TD. I’m going against conventional wisdom and taking the over.
Pick: NYJ| ATS: NYJ -1.5| O/U: Over 36.5
(+250) HOU Texans 1-3-1 @ (-320) LV Raiders 1-4 (-7, O/U 45.5)
Houston, we have a problem. Your football team sucks. Fortunately for them, the Raiders are also sucking. Vegas is the more talented team, injuries notwithstanding, and if they lose this it’s time to fire everybody. The Texans can’t stop the run so I expect a big Josh Jacobs day. It’s a must-win for the Raiders and I think they will, but I can also see this one being funky and too close for comfort.
Pick: LVR | ATS: HOU +7 | O/U: Over 45.5
(+192) SEA Seahawks 3-3 @ (-235) LA Chargers 4-2 (-5, O/U 50.5)
With both DET and JAX at sub-.500, Seattle is the feel-good story I want. Unfortunately for them, the Chargers are the better team and might be getting Keenan Allen back in some capacity. LA can win this one with an Ekler-centric approach if they have too, but they pick up too many holding penalties to rely on that alone. The Hawks are fun to watch because they have the freedom to fail which was never there in the Wilson era. The Chargers should still win, but I think it will be fun and I will take the cover.
Pick: LAC | ATS: SEA +5 | O/U: Over 50.5
(-120) KC Chiefs 4-2 @ (+100) SF 49ers 3-3 (+1, O/U 49)
San Francisco gets to try out their new shiny toy in Christian McCaffrey, but it’s not like the run game was their biggest area of concern either. He may factor more into the passing formations, but learning a new scheme on short notice isn’t easy. The Chiefs just saw what the bar looks like vs the Bills last week and they will be ready to rock. I know the Niners want to avenge their SB loss to KC from a few years back but they played like ass last week. Ultimately, this one could go either way and it’ll come down to which QB makes the mistakes; just like it did last time.
Pick: KC | ATS: KC -1 | O/U: Under 49
(+275) PIT Steelers 2-4 @ (-350) MIA Dolphins 3-3 (-7.5, O/U 44.5)
Who put this game in the Sunday night slot? This is a Thursday Primetime game if there’s ever been one. Tua is supposedly coming back but that Pittsburgh defense isn’t going to pull any punches and I fear the Fins’ QB is one more head injury away from never playing again. If both teams play to the potential we have seen, Miami win but they have had 3 different QBs over the last month and aren’t in rhythm. The Steelers have never been in rhythm but a win over the Bucs probably gave them confidence. Football is weird so I’ll roll the dice on PIT.
Pick: PIT | ATS: PIT +7.5 | O/U: Over 44.5
(+300) CHI Bears @ (-385) NE Patriots (-7.5, O/U 40)
While we are at it, who made this the Monday night game? The primetime planner needs a job evaluation. The Bears have been horrible all seasons and New England is rounding into shape. Maybe the Pats’ defense hasn’t been great but it’s not like the Bears can score, so I don’t see the appeal. The zebras may have some vested interest in this one, but I don’t.
Pick: NE | ATS: NE -7.5| O/U: Under 40
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