With the Thursday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Bills pushed back, Week 6 is backloaded with a pair of games on Monday evening. While that game has massive implications for the power structure of the AFC, Sunday’s best game is surprisingly between the Browns and the Steelers. There are some other interesting matchups but there are a lot of beaters on the schedule this week. In particular, there are four games (DET/JAX, ATL/MIN, WSH/NYG, & NYJ/MIA) in which the eight teams have a combined record of 6-33 and Miami is the only team that could even get to .500 with a win. Detroit and Minny need momentum wins to even think of keeping pace in the newly-expanded Wild Card hunt since their division rival Packers and Bears are a combined 8-1 in the NFC North.
(1-3)Denver Broncos at (2-2)New England Patriots (-9.5, 44.5)
Breakdown: Coming out of the postponement bye week for both teams, New England looks to be pretty healthy but Denver has a number of starters out on offense. Denver gets Phillip Lindsay back, which is extra convenient with Melvin Gordon out due to illness and the looming problems stemming from his DUI, but I just can’t see it being enough. The Patriots are the better team and may very well have a win over the Chiefs had Cam Newton been cleared to play in that game. Bill Belichick’s team is always prepared and the extra time doesn’t favor the Broncos.
Pick: Patriots
VS Spread: Patriots
Over/Under: Under 44.5
(4-1)Chicago Bears at (3-2)Carolina Panthers (-1, 44.5)
Breakdown: After an 0-2 start, the Panthers are one of the hottest teams in football. Head Coach Matt Rhule has his guys playing incredibly well and I really like their brand of football. They have a meat and potatoes offense that’ll only get better when their star player comes back and there’s nothing pretentious about their play style. Chicago is a different story. They are still trying to figure out their identity with Nick Foles at quarterback, but at times they look pretty good. Even so, it doesn’t seem like they are going to be lighting up the scoreboard every week. They are still a team predicated on defense and they do have the advantage there. I want the Panthers to win and maybe they do, but I have to take Chicago here.
Pick: Bears
VS Spread: Bears
Over/Under: Under 44.5
(1-3)Detroit Lions at (1-4)Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 54.5)
Breakdown: This is one of those beater games I was talking about. I don’t think the Lions are really as bad their record would suggest, but the Jaguars sure are. Detroit has played in some close games with good teams while the wheels have just about completely fallen off for Jacksonville. I was never a fan of Doug Marrone when he coached my Bills and the Jags are learning why. He’s only had two winning seasons and took over as interim HC in 2016 after Gus Bradley was fired after going 2-12. They went to the conference finals the next year, so there is this faint tether to success but they haven’t been hiding the fact they are rebuilding and they’re going nowhere fast. Losing to the Colts and Titans is one thing, but they have now lost three in a row to teams with losing records and it looks like they are getting worse. Lions win a semi high-scoring game.
Pick: Lions
VS Spread: Lions
Over/Under: Under 54.5
(0-5)Atlanta Falcons at (1-4)Minnesota Vikings (-4, 54)
Breakdown: This is another one of those beaters I mentioned but this one has bigger implications. The Vikings have started to figure things out over the last few weeks and could very easily be 3-2 if not for a pair of 1-point losses. Atlanta just fired their coach and would have to finish the season 9-2 or better to make a playoff run. That’s not going to happen, but the future of their franchise is under the microscope right now. Julio Jones is back for ATL and Minny does give up a lot of points, so this game might be competitive. Even without Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have been playing better football and they’ll get the job done at home.
Pick: Vikings
VS Spread: Vikings
Over/Under: Over 54
(1-4)Houston Texans at (4-0)Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 53.5)
Breakdown: Houston is coming off their first win of the season in which they looked okay against the Jags. The Titans, on the other hand, gave my Bills a good old fashioned ass whopping to stay undefeated. If the Texans play their best game and Tennessee doesn’t respect them, it could be a game but I don’t see that being the case. Titans are top-10 on both sides of the ball and they stay undefeated. It’s a division game so I’m feeling the under for some reason.
Pick: Titans
VS Spread: Titans
Over/Under: Under 53.5
(1-4)Washington Football Team at (0-5)New York Giants (-3, 43)
Breakdown: Beater alert. There are only 4 total wins in the NFC East and Washington somehow has one of them. The G-Men almost beat the Cowboys last week, so I like their stock better at the moment despite the winless record. New York has been competitive with some good teams and they are going to win one sooner or later, so why not now? The Washington O-line is pretty bad so it doesn’t really matter who is back there. I can’t believe it but the winner of this game could be right there in the division race. Giants put one in the win column.
Pick: Giants
VS Spread: Giants
Over/Under: Over 43
(4-1)Cleveland Browns at (4-0)Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 51)
Breakdown: Surprisingly, this is one of the best games on the schedule. Cleveland has continued to play well after getting thrashed by Baltimore in Week 1 and the Steelers have looked really good so far too. I didn’t think the AFC North would be this competitive, but it’s the best division in football right now. Cleveland is pretty banged up and didn’t have the early break like Pitt and they are on the road, so it’ll be a tough road for them. The winner of this game gets a leg up with the playoff tie-breakers but the loser will still have one of the better records in the league. I’ll trust Mike Tomlin’s team at home.
Pick: Steelers
VS Spread: Steelers
Over/Under: Over 51
(4-1)Baltimore Ravens at (1-3-1)Philadelphia Eagles (+9.5, 46.5)
Breakdown: If both teams were at full health I’d take the Ravens but, looking at the injury reports, the Eagles are decimated. I’m surprised they even have enough players to fill the roster. Miles Sanders has been ballin’ out but the whole offense has to run through him. To their credit, the Eags don’t just roll over and play dead so I expect them to make it a dog fight as much as they can. Travis Fulgham was a very welcome surprise last week in Pittsburgh, plus this is a game where Baltimore may overlook them and road wins usually don’t come gift wrapped. Ravens should win.
Pick: Ravens
VS Spread: Eagles
Over/Under: Over 46.5
(1-3-1)Cincinnati Bengals at (3-2)Indianapolis Colts (-8, 46)
Breakdown: The Colts didn’t look good last week against the Browns and Philip Rivers didn’t look good. He’s near the bottom of the league in touchdowns and picks, which is easier to swallow when winning. Indy is fortunate their division isn’t very good but if they lose to Cincy, there will be some serious questions as to why Rivers ever replaced Jacoby Brissett in the first place. The Bengals had some tough luck running into Baltimore after their first win of the season, and now it looks like A.J. Green isn’t happy. It’s Joe Burrow’s team now but this season isn’t about winning as much as it is about building him up. The Colts are far from invincible and their QB has more INTs than TDs so the opponent is never going to be out of it, plus their injury report looks worse than Cincy’s. Lucas Oil Stadium is a rough place to play in the morning so I’ll stick with the home team, but not by much.
Pick: Colts
VS Spread: Bengals
Over/Under: Over 46
(0-5)New York Jets at (2-3)Miami Dolphins (-9.5, 47)
Breakdown: I know the Jets are pretty hopeless after releasing their best player but this game still has divisional implications. A Miami win could put them firmly in the division hunt. The Fins have looked pretty good at times and they have something to play for. It’s tough to imagine what New York has to offer at this point. I don’t know if the Jets have covered once this season so I wouldn’t bank on it now.
Pick: Dolphins
VS Spread: Dolphins
Over/Under: Under 47
(4-0)Green Bay Packers at (3-2)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 55)
Breakdown: The headline here is obviously Rodgers vs Brady. Coming off the bye week, Davante Adams is back for the Packers and they look to be pretty healthy across the board. Tampa looks to be getting Chris Godwin back this week which should give Brady more options, but the Bucs looked really poor in the 2-minute drills last week against the Bears. With the way Green Bay has played so far, there won’t be much wiggle room for Tampa to figure things out. The Bucs have a solid run defense, but they haven’t faced Aaron Jones yet. I like the Packers as a small favorite.
Pick: Packers
VS Spread: Packers
Over/Under: Over 55
(4-1)Los Angeles Rams at (2-3)San Francisco 49ers (+3, 51.5)
Breakdown: The Niners need a win in a big way. Like in a “their season is on the line” kinda way. Unfortunately, this is a bad matchup for them right now. Their defense is so banged up and the Rams run an efficient offense. I know Jimmy G is back, but it’s going to take time for them to get it all back together. I gotta go Rams.
Pick: Rams
VS Spread: Rams
Over/Under: Under 51.5
(4-1)Kansas City Chiefs at (4-1)Buffalo Bills (+4.5, 47.5)
Breakdown: Both these teams were undefeated heading into last week and both of them gave up a lot of points and took losses. NFL math isn’t an exact science, but the Raiders seemed to figure the Chiefs out and the Bills beat the Raiders with relative ease. The Patriots gameplan from a couple weeks ago seems to have gotten around and I hope Buffalo can build on it. I know KC still scored 30-points, which is better than the Bills looked against the Titans. However, Buffalo gets Tre White, Matt Milano, and John Brown back for this matchup. Le’Veon Bell won’t be suiting up for KC on Sunday either, so it’s going to be interesting. This is a great litmus test for the Bills right now and a game I wished happened last season for that reason. As a Bills fan, I want them to win but I would be able to stomach an L as long as they play well. Conventional wisdom says the Chiefs aren’t going to lose back-to-back games, so I’ll pick them and hope that I’m wrong.
Pick: Chiefs
VS Spread: Bills
Over/Under: Over 47.5
(3-2)Arizona Cardinals at (2-3)Dallas Cowboys (+1, 55)
Breakdown: The Cardinals righted the ship and the Cowboys squeaked out a victory but lost Dak Prescott for the season. Arizona needs a win to keep pace in the division and it will probably be an adjustment for the Boys as they switch over to Andy Dalton’s offense. The NFC East has four wins and half of those belong to Dallas, so it’s not a must-win game by any means. The Boys’ defense has looked non-existant this season and I expect them to have issues containing Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. Cards as a small favorite makes sense.
Pick: Cardinals
VS Spread: Cardinals
Over/Under: Under 55
| Nick | Vs Spread | Over/Under | Christen |
| Patriots | Patriots -9.5 | Under 44.5 | Patriots |
| Bears | Bears +1 | Under 44.5 | Carolina |
| Lions | Lions -3 | Under 54.5 | Jags |
| Vikings | Vikings -4 | Over 54 | Vikings |
| Titans | Titans -3.5 | Under 53.5 | Titans |
| Giants | Giants -3 | Over 43 | Giants |
| Steelers | Steelers -3.5 | Over 51 | Steelers |
| Ravens | Eagles +9.5 | Over 46.5 | Ravens |
| Colts | Bengals +8 | Over 46 | Colts |
| Dolphins | Dolphins -9.5 | Under 47 | Dolphins |
| Packers | Packers -1 | Over 55 | Packers |
| Rams | Rams -3 | Under 51.5 | Rams |
| Chiefs | Bills +4.5 | Over 47.5 | Chiefs |
| Cardinals | Cardinals -1 | Under 55 | Cowboys |