Thursday Night Football hasn’t been a bright spot so far this season for the NFL. They haven’t been particularly kind to me either as my records fell to 3-2 with the Chicago Bears’ 20-19 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Maybe I’m a little salty because of picking Tampa to win, but it’s not like I haven’t been wrong before. This was just the most poorly officiated game I’ve seen this year.
I’m not saying the outcome would have been different or that the Bears were the one-sided beneficiaries of biased officiating but, just off the top of my head, I can recall two facemask fouls the Bears got away with, a low hit on Brady that wasn’t called, a ridiculous unnecessary roughness flag on TB center Ryan Jensen for getting in someone’s face, and a vary iffy roughing the passer call on Shaquil Barrett to bail Chicago out on a 3rd & 19. That possession resulted in a punt but those plays alone are worth 75 yards of total field position.
In total, the Bucs had 11 penalties enforced for 109-yards. They likely got away with at least two holds trying to slow down the Bears’ pass rush in the second half, but the plays I isolated seemed to have a large total impact. Tampa actually had more passing yards, more rushing yards, more time of possession, more yards-per-play, and more total plays but the yellow flags were a thorn in the side all night long.
With just about seven minutes left in the first half, things were going according to plan with the Bucs up 13-0 after a 13-play drive capped by Ryan Succop’s second field goal of the night. Five minutes later Chicago finally got on the board when they cashed in a 10-play, 75-yard drive with a David Montgomery touchdown inside the two-minute warning.
Getting the ball back with two timeouts and 1:48 to go in the half seemed like an eternity for Brady. A couple of incomplete passes and about 10 seconds of game clock later, TB12 found Ke’Shawn Vaughn on a short completion but Kyle Fuller found Vaughn too and absolutely demolished him with a perfectly legal but vicious hit to knock the ball free. Initially ruled incomplete, the replay booth correctly overturned the call to a fumble with a clear recovery for the Bears. That play would prove to be the turning point in the game as it ignited the dormant CHI defense and, a little less than a minute later, Nick Foles found tight end Jimmy Graham who hauled in a fantastic one-handed TD-catch to put the Bears on top. After a fairly one-sided first half, the Bucs’ lead had evaporated and they found themselves trailing 14-13.
The rest of the game was a penalty-laden, field position game with only a dozen total points scored on a variety of field goals. One of those gave CHI the 20-19 lead inside of two-minutes to go in the game, but Tampa burned all their timeouts to keep some time on the clock for Brady. This Bucs’ offense isn’t the well oiled machine he’s used to from New England and they have a long list of injuries which didn’t make things easier, but they ran terrible 2-minute drills to end both halves. The game ended when Tom Brady’s now-infamous 4th down botch gave the ball back to the Bears on downs.
I said in my preview that if both teams play their games, Tampa wins and covers. Credit to Chicago for playing their game to a tee and forcing TB off of theirs. They could have at least scored a little more to give me the over.
(2-2)Carolina Panthers at (0-4)Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 55)
Breakdown: Carolina is riding quality back-to-back wins while Atlanta continues their slide and we’re all just waiting to see where rock bottom is. Both teams look to be getting some guys back but cornerback Eli Apple is out for the Panthers which could pose problems since Calvin Ridley is back for the Falcons and Julio Jones may indeed play. Carolina seems to be finding themselves without their best player but this is as favorable of a matchup as Atlanta can get. I’ve learned my lesson picking the Falcons so I won’t be doing that again but, in a divisional game that should be high-scoring, ATL might be able to actually threaten here.
Pick: Panthers
Vs Spread: Falcons
Over/Under: Over 55
(2-2)Las Vegas Raiders at (4-0)Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5, 56)
Breakdown: The Chiefs are playing at a high level and the Raiders are reeling, coming off consecutive losses after a 2-0 start. Las Vegas’ defense isn’t good (24th in yards and points) which is not what you want when taking on Kansas City. Defensive tackle Chris Jones returns for KC as well so it’s going be and uphill battle for John Gruden’s squad. It is a division game so the 12.5-pt spread is a little fat.
Pick: Chiefs
Vs Spread: Raiders
Over/Under: Under 56
(3-1)Los Angeles Rams at (1-3)Washington Football Team (+9, 45.5)
Breakdown: The Rams looked surprisingly docile in a game that should have favored them versus Giants, but got the win while Washington got run over by a Ravens team that really needed a win. Washington has given up on former first-round pick Dwayne Haskins and moved on to Kyle Allen at QB, but he didn’t look too good down the stretch in Carolina last season which is why the Panthers moved to get Teddy Bridgewater. There’s no reason to think Washignton is going to win this game but LA struggled to do much of anything against the Giants, so it could be closer than you’d think.
Pick: Rams
Vs Spread: Washington
Over/Under: Over 45.5
(1-3)Jacksonville Jaguars at (0-4)Houston Texans (-6, 54)
Breakdown: This is a Thursday Night Football matchup if there ever was one, but thankfully it’s not getting the national stage this week. Even though the Jags have been disappointing so far they still have scoring potential and the Texans are the kind of team that’s going to give it up. I don’t if firing Bill O’Brien is going to pay dividends right away, but I would start by giving David Johnson a lot of work. This is a quarterback driven league and Deshaun Watson gets paid a ton to be the man in Houston. I don’t begrudge him getting paid, but Houston paid him like he’s a top-3 QB and he very clearly is not. He’s not even top-10 in passing yards, touchdowns, or completion percentage right now and doesn’t even have a win to fall back on. This is a different kind of must-win and if the Texans lose this game, it may be time to start rethinking exactly what it is they are paying him all that money for.
Pick: Texans
Vs Spread: Jags
Over/Under: Over 54
(2-2)Arizona Cardinals at (0-4)New York Jets (+6.5, 47.5)
Breakdown: Nothing gets you right like playing the New York Jets. The Cardinals hit a 2-game skid after a hot start but they have to win this game if they want to be taken seriously. The Jets showed signs of life for the first time against a decimated Broncos team but, even then, they still gave up 37-points to a 3rd string QB. Sam Darnold is out from the shoulder injury he suffered in the Denver game so Joe Flacco will be under center for New York, so who knows what the offense may look like. I assume he’s the backup for a reason, but he’s a capable veteran QB with a big arm. The Cards have shown they can score consistently, even in defeat, and they need this one badly.
Pick: Cardinals
Vs Spread: Cardinals
Over/Under: Over 47.5
(1-2-1)Philadelphia Eagles at (3-0)Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 45)
Breakdown: The battle of Pennsylvania sees a Steelers team returning from an impromtu bye week and an Eagles squad fresh off their first W of the season. Philly is still pretty banged up and they won’t be playing against a backup QB this time out. The Steelers got the week off but their injury report looks pretty clean and I’m sure they will be looking to take out their frustrations on their interstate rivals. Pittsburgh has the much better defense and there is no question they are the better team. They should cover but they might come out a little stiff, so I’m thinking a little on the low scoring side.
Pick: Steelers
Vs Spread: Steelers
Over/Under: Under 45
(1-2-1)Cincinnati Bengals at (3-1)Baltimore Ravens (-13.5, 51)
Breakdown: As I expected, the Bengals and Joe Burrow got their first win but they don’t get to play the Jaguars every week. The Ravens handled business against Washington but 17-points seems like a lot to give up in that game. Kansas city was able to dominate them through the air, and while the Bengals aren’t the Chiefs, they can throw the ball. It’s an uphill battle for Cincy but 13.5 points seems like a lot.
Pick: Ravens
Vs Spread: Bengals
Over/Under: Over 51
(1-3)Miami Dolphins at (2-2)San Francisco 49ers (-8, 47)
Breakdown: The 49ers secondary is banged up but it looks like the offense is getting healthy and that’s probably bad news for the Dolphins. It’s been a while since the band has been together but it’ll help to have Jimmy G back at the helm. Miami has their top corners back now as well so it might not be so easy for SF to open up the passing game. If Raheem Mostert is feeling ready, expect a heavy dose of the run game. This is a game the Niners need to keep pace in the NFC, so I think they get it done but the Fins cover.
Pick: 49ers
Vs Spread: Dolphins
Over/Under: Over 47
(1-3)Denver Broncos at (2-2)New England Patriots (-3.5, 40.5)
Breakdown: Both the Broncos’ win vs the Jets and the Patriots’ loss to the Chiefs were foregone conclusions so there’s not much to take away from those games. Somehow, the Pats could be getting Cam Newton back for this game and the oddsmakers seem to think that was the case with such a big spread. However, that number moved a lot and Denver could also be getting Drew Lock back from injury but that’s not as likely. Not matter how you slice it, New England should be favored and should win but the QB situation will determine a lot.
Pick: Patriots
Vs Spread: Patriots
Over/Under: Over 40.5
(0-4)New York Giants at (1-3)Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 54)
Breakdown: Division games are always a bit tricky but favoring Dallas by 9.5-points in any game this season seems like a huge mistake. Clearly they aren’t winning with Dak Prescott throwing all the time, so they have gotta start feeding Zeke. This is a winnable game where they can take back the division lead but I want them to lose. These teams are a combined 1-7 and even that one was a joke, so forgive me if I don’t care.
Pick: Cowboys
Vs Spread: Giants
Over/Under: Under 54
(3-1)Indianapolis Colts at (3-1)Cleveland Browns (+2.5, 47.5)
Breakdown: I don’t think most people would have predicted this kind of start for either team but here we are and this could be the game of the week, or at least the most relevant. The Browns had 17 players on the injury report but only ruled out three while the Colts will be without starters Anthony Costanzo at tackle and Darius Leonard at linebacker. Losing Nick Chubb for the year hurts, but doesn’t change the approach for Cleveland and Kareem Hunt was a dominant lead back not too long ago. They are scoring a lot of points against bad defenses, but Indy has the 4th best run defense in the league they’re 1st against the pass too. It should be an interesting clash.
Pick: Colts
Vs Spread: Colts
Over/Under: Under 47.5
(1-3)Minnesota Vikings at (4-0)Seattle Seahawks (-7, 58)
Breakdown: This game was probably supposed to have the makings of power positioning game at the top of the NFC, but the Vikings have been one of the worst teams in football despite getting a win last week over a winless Houston team. They look like they’ve figured some things out on offense over the last few games and they are taking on a Seattle squad that gives up a lot of yards and points. I thought CLE had a ton of guys on the injury report but Seattle had a mind-boggling 26 players listed and they’re fortunate to only be without safety Jamal Adams. Both of these teams have defenses near the bottom of the league and that usually mean a high-scoring game. I want the Hawks to cover but this is feeling like a trap game. If they overlook Minny because of the soft start, it may come back to bite them.
Pick: Seahwaks
Vs Spread: Vikings
Over/Under: Over 58
(1-3)Los Angeles Chargers at (2-2)New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 52)
Breakdown: Both of these teams showed last week that they won’t go quietly. The Chargers have proven to be a tough out for everyone they have played. With the Bucs’ loss on Thursday, the NFC south lead is up for grabs again and the Saints know how to seize the moment and they are no strangers to primetime games, unlike the Bolts. Los Angeles is a little thin on the O-line and New Orleans is still banged up in the secondary, so it’ll be interesting to see which team can exploit those holes. If Michael Thomas is back and feeling anything close to okay, NO gets it done.
Pick: Saints
Vs Spread: Chargers
Over/Under: Under 52
(4-0)Buffalo Bills at (3-0)Tennessee Titans (Spread & O/U Currently Unavailable)
Breakdown: Too bad there’s so much crap surrounding this game because it is probably the game of the week, but at least it gets a stand-alone spot on Tuesday. Tennessee is well-rested even though they have broken protocol, so there’s no guarantee this game even happens thanks to them. The Bills are still hot and the Titans’ defense hasn’t been stellar, but they have had time to plan. I definitely want the Bills to win for a number of reasons, but I think they have more weaponry on offense. Buffalo took the win 14-7 when these two played last season and they’ve gotten better. Matt Milano is out with a pectoral injury, but the Bills’ defense is still better. Bills win in the name of justice and hopefully don’t get COVID along the way. There’s no line on this game yet, so I’ll make one myself.
Pick: Bills
Vs Spread: Bills -3.5
Over/Under: Over 55
| Nick | Vs Spread | Over/Under | Christen |
| Panthers | Falcons +4.5 | Over 55 | Panthers |
| Chiefs | Raiders +12.5 | Under 56 | Chiefs |
| Rams | Washington +9 | Over 45.5 | Rams |
| Texans | Jags +6 | Over 54 | Texans |
| Cardinals | Cardinals -6.5 | Over 47.5 | Jets |
| Steelers | Steelers -7 | Under 45 | Steelers |
| Ravens | Bengals +13.5 | Over 51 | Ravens |
| 49ers | Dolphins +8 | Over 47 | 49ers |
| Patriots | Patriots -3.5 | Over 40.5 | Patriots |
| Cowboys | Giants +9 | Under 54 | Cowboys |
| Colts | Colts -2.5 | Under 47.5 | Colts |
| Seahawks | Vikings +7 | Over 58 | Seahawks |
| Saints | Chargers +7.5 | Under 52 | Saints |
| Bills | Bills -3.5 | Over 55 | Bills |