After a strong Week 4 showing where I thought I got back on track, Week 5 brought the picks crashing back down to earth. I was pressed for time again so I didn’t get to do the Pick Em Show this week, again, and the fifth week of the season also brought the first bye weeks of the 2023 campaign to the table which added a new wrinkle for gamblers and fantasy managers.
The extra games off might have actually bailed me out as I hung on to a .500 record with a record of 7-7 in straight picks. I did go 8-5 ATS and now my overall record there is threatening to overtake my picks, and I don’t know how to feel about that. I’m still treading water on the over/under, going even there, but Christen stepped up big and won the week with a record of 10-4. She seems to do well when she doesn’t do the Pick Em Show, so I may be flying solo there from now on. And I forgot to get Ridley involved this week, but she did correctly pick the Bears.
| Nick W | Nick L | Nick T | ATS W | ATS L | ATS P | O/U W | O/U L | O/U P | Christen W | Christen L | Christen T | Rids W | Rids L | Rids T | ||||
| 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | ||||
| 39 | 25 | 0 | 35 | 26 | 3 | 22 | 25 | 1 | 40 | 24 | 0 | 23 | 26 | 0 | ||||
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | ||||
| 46 | 32 | 0 | 43 | 31 | 3 | 29 | 32 | 1 | 50 | 28 | 0 | 23 | 26 | 0 |
Week 5 came to a low-scoring but dramatic end as the Raiders held on to beat the Packers, 17-13. Jordan Love had a chance to win the game for Green Bay, but a couple of dropped completions prefaced an ill-advised deep ball that was picked off in the endzone by Amik Robertson to ice the game for Vegas. Speaking of the Raiders’ defense, Maxx Crosby made his presence felt all night against a depleted Packers’ O-line and it was his pressure that forced Love out of the pocket on that final heave to the endzone.
This was a winnable game for both teams, and both of them also nearly found ways to give it to the other team. Green Bay scored first but was down 10-3 at the half, only to take a 13-10 lead halfway through the 3rd quarter and never score again. Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t look amazing in his return from concussion protocol, but at least he had the TD to negate the interception. Love, on the other hand, has not played particularly well since the first two games of the season.
The spread heading into the Sunday Night Football game had San Francisco favored by 3.5 points, but there may have been some mistakes in the math as George Kittle’s 3-TD performance helped the Niners score about 3 times as much as Dallas, en route to a 42-10 win.
From what I had seen, I was fairly confident the 49ers were a lot better than the Cowboys, but I was still hoping for a closer contest during the Sunday Night Football marquee game. It was a rude awakening for Cowboys Nation as they found out first-hand just how wide the gap between them and the Niners actually is. It was such thorough domination on both sides of the ball, that it’s actually tough to tell which aspect was more impressive.
America’s Game of the Week on Sunday featured the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, taking on the Minnesota Vikings. This was a game where I thought Minnesota had a good shot at pulling off the upset, and they were tied 13-13 at the half but Justin Jefferson got hurt and missed a good portion of the game and the comeback effort fell short 27-20. The Chiefs did what they were supposed to do and beat the team that was 1-3, but it wasn’t the most impressive. Nonetheless, they improved to 4-1 and sit atop the AFC while the Vikes circle the drains at 1-4 and rumors of trades begin to swell.
The Jets leaned on their defense once again, but it was the offensive outburst in the second half that led them to a 31-21 win over the lowly Broncos. Breece Hall ran for 177 yards, including a 72-yard TD run on their first play of the 3rd quarter and they never gave up the lead. New York is clearly good enough to beat bad teams, even with Zach Wilson at the helm, but they don’t get to play the Broncos every week. If they want to make the most of their season, they may be in the Kirk Cousins trade market…if that even exists.
If I had to bet on only one thing happening besides the Niners beating the Cowboys, it was the Bengals, with their backs against the wall, beating the Cardinals. And once James Conner left the game due to injury it was a tough road back for Arizona who only mustered 6 points in the second half. When the Bengals click, they look like the team they have over the past few seasons and ended up winning 34-20 here.
It’s been a rough start to the season for a team that has played in the AFC title game the past two seasons, but they had a similarly slow start last year. However, the Bengals go as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase go. Joey B threw for over 300 yards in this one but 192 of those yards and all 3 TDs went to Chase. With Tee Higgins out, it was easy to lean on old reliable, including a massive 63-yard strike. When and if Cincy finds their rhythm, they are still a threat.
The Eagles stayed unbeaten with a solid but not entirely impressive 23-14 road win over the Rams. As this year has demonstrated pretty clearly, wins are difficult to come by even for the best teams in the league but what separates the best teams from everybody else is that they find a way to win. Maybe the Eags aren’t quite as good their record but Los Angeles is not as bad as I would have anticipated either, and getting Cooper Kupp back is going to be a good bonus moving forward.
In the most unsurprising surprise of the week, the Steelers rallied with 14 points in the 4th quarter to beat the Ravens 17-10. Sure, Pittsburgh got the W but this loss is on Lamar Jackson and the offense. After the way the Ravens lost to the Colts last week, it was increasingly difficult to trust them. This week it started with a safety, then Jackson threw a bad pick with 3rd & goal at the 5-yard line, then he turned it over on a sack-fumble, and he closed it out with another sack to turn it over on downs. As you might have expected, it was T.J. Watt who came up with those big defensive plays but I don’t think anyone is confusing Pitt with a top team in this league.
Far less surprising, the Saints cashed in as slight underdogs on the road in New England. The surprising part was just how lopsided it was. New Orleans absolutely embarrassed Bill Belichick, Mac Jones, and that whole organization 34-0. I picked the Saints, but I didn’t think it would be that bad. I can act like I didn’t enjoy that though.
The Dolphins rebounded from the thrashing they got last week with a solid win against the Giants, 31-16. While not surprising, the win puts them back on top of the AFC East for now. Their rookie De’Von Achane is a big problem for defenses as he put up 151 yards on 11 carries with 1 TD. Even with the loss to the Bills, Miami is still one of the better teams in the league. Sadly, the Giants are seriously heading in the wrong direction after last season.
Right when I was beginning to trust the Titans to beat a rookie QB, they let me down…again. Tennessee did wind up losing to the Colts 23-16 on the day of Jonathan Taylor’s return to Indy, but it wasn’t at the hands of a rookie QB. Gardner Minshew stepped in and helped pilot the win after Colts’ rookie Anthony Richardson got hurt again. Last week on the show, I talked about him playing a style that gets him banged up and he has been hurt in every game that he has played so far. It is worth noting that Minshew has been under center at some point in all 3 of the Colts’ wins, which gives head coach Shane Steichen some food for thought. Also, but shout-out to ex-Bill Zack Moss who had 195 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs in what was likely his last start this year with Taylor back.
In the battle of the big cats, the Lions improved to 4-1 on the year with a breezy 42-24 win over the winless Panthers. Carolina has shown some teeth this season but they have a long way to go. Detroit has shown the bite and the NFC North is their division to lose.
The Texans had put together a pair of impressive wins over the Steelers and the Jags, and they had the lead in the 4th quarter in Atlanta, but Arthur Smith’s Falcons have shown that they are here to compete this season. Right as Houston had taken the lead inside the final two minutes of regulation, Desmond Ritter led his guys down the field and gave Younghoe Koo (one of the best kickers in the league) all he needed to kick the game-winning FG. I did have Houston to cover 2.5 points, so that was a nice consolation prize but it shows that the Falcons are just a little further along the growth curve.
Jacksonville beat the Bills 25-20 in one of the worst officiated games I have seen in some time. It was a tough spot for Buffalo to be 5-point favorites. They had to fly to London after an emotional division win over Miami in which they lost their top two corners, Tre White and Christian Benford, then play a good playoff team that’s been there since the previous week, and lose Matt Milano in the process. The loss is whatever, but as a Bills fan it’s the injuries that suck most. I don’t want to diminish the Jags either, they are a dangerous and talented team, they played their, game and they know how to beat the Bills.
Then, of course, there was the DJ Moore showcase in Washington on Thursday as the Bears got into the win column with a 40-20 domination of what I thought was a solid Commanders squad. It was a little of column A, little of column B situation as Washington probably thought this would be an easier game than it was after they had just pushed Philadelphia to the brink and went into this matchup on the short week. If Chicago can utilize their weapons like this, they’re not going to be an easy out for most teams.
The 49ers not only stay on top of the rankings but do so in an emphatic fashion, tightening their grasp on the #1 spot. A lot of 3-win teams are in flux, but the Bears get out of the basement with a big upset, blowout win, leaving the Panthers in the cellar as the only winless team in the league.
| 1. 49ers 5-0 (=) |
| 2. Eagles 5-0 (=) |
| 3. Chiefs 4-1 (+1) |
| 4. Lions 4-1 (+3) |
| 5. Dolphins 4-1 (+1) |
| 6. Bills 3-2 (-3) |
| 7. Cowboys 3-2 (-2) |
| 8. Seahawks 3-1 (=) |
| 9. Jaguars 3-2 (+11) |
| 10. Buccaneers 3-1 (+3) |
| 13. Steelers 3-2 (+2) |
| 12. Ravens 3-2 (-3) |
| 13. Saints 3-2 (+3) |
| 14. Falcons 3-2 (+3) |
| 15. Colts 3-2 (+4) |
| 16. Chargers 2-2 (-4) |
| 17. Browns 2-2 (-3) |
| 18. Bengals 2-3 (+6) |
| 19. Commanders 2-3 (-8) |
| 20. Texans 2-3 (-2) |
| 21. Raiders 2-3 (+5) |
| 22. Jets 2-3 (+6) |
| 23. Rams 2-3 (-2) |
| 24. Packers 2-3 (-9) |
| 25. Titans 2-3 (-3) |
| 26. Vikings 1-4 (-3) |
| 27. Giants 1-4 (-2) |
| 28. Cardinals 1-4 (-1) |
| 29. Broncos 1-4 (+1) |
| 30. Patriots 1-4 (-1) |
| 31. Bears 1-4 (+1) |
| 32. Panthers 0-5 (-1) |
Thanks for reading! I still believe word of mouth is the best way to help, so if you enjoy what I’m doing, please tell somebody. And if you have a comment, I’d love to hear it! Liking, subscribing, and sharing go a long way too. And, as usual, be well, stay safe, and Go Bills!