I don’t know if things settled down or, in reaching the end of the first month of the season, teams have finally begun to figure their stuff out. It was the first really good Week of the season in terms of picks for me, but it also happened to be the one where I didn’t get to watch the second half of the morning games or any of the afternoon games. Maybe I wasn’t there to jinx them all.
Anyhow, I ended up going 12-4 this week which was good enough to win one weekly on a tie-breaker and get me back into a 1st place tie in my season-long pool. Christen had a very good week as well at 11-5 and even Ridley did okay at 8-8. I managed to get in just above .500 and gain some ground back against the spread but I’m still getting pummeled on the over/under, so maybe I should just pick the opposites and see how that goes next week. The table had a slight error in that dept last week, so that’s been corrected to reflect my miserable O/U game.
| Nick W | Nick L | Nick T | ATS W | ATS L | ATS P | O/U W | O/U L | O/U P | Christen W | Christen L | Christen T | Rids W | Rids L | Rids T |
| 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous |
| 28 | 19 | 1 | 22 | 25 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 26 | 1 | 24 | 23 | 1 |
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall |
| 40 | 23 | 1 | 30 | 32 | 2 | 22 | 40 | 2 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 32 | 31 | 1 |
The game that won me Week 4 went down on Monday Night Football with the Rams visiting the 49ers. Football is interesting in its week-to-week swings because, based on what we saw in Week 3, the Rams should have easily been the favorite. They had beaten the Niners in the NFC title game and finally broken a long losing streak and LA had looked reasonable solid through the first three weeks despite getting whipped by the Bills in Week 1. San Francisco had abysmal looked on offense in two of their three games and was coming off an 11-10 loss vs a mediocre Broncos team in Week 3. However, they entered the game as 2.5-point favorites.
I knew a lot of people were going to take the Rams, but knowing Kyle Shanahan’s dominance of Sean McVay during the regular season I leaned Niners. Plus, the Rams had several key injuries along an already mid-level O-line and I knew the 49ers were going to hit Matthew Stafford a lot. They did. Stafford was sacked 7 times and LA could never get the run going against a solid SF defensive front. That all added up to a situation where Staffy threw the pick-six to Talanoa Hufanga that would ultimately seal the game, 24-9.
Naturally, Deebo Samuel had one monster play that showed how incredible he is because I needed him to not do that to survive in one fantasy league. Cooper Kupp also had a masterful game and Tyler Higbee played a good one too, but they couldn’t find the end zone. Meanwhile, SF did what they always do against the Rams and found a way to contain Aaron Donald vs the run and they made their carries count. It’s such an interesting rivalry because of the matchups and when the Niners don’t turn the ball over, they are difficult to beat.
The Sunday night game was not really as close as the scoreboard would suggest as the Chiefs finally got to exorcise some Super Bowl LV demons against Tom Brady and the Bucs. Unfortunately, I thought the game was recording when it wasn’t so I only got to watch the second half and I walked into a butt whooping.
What I didn’t see was the Bucs fumbling the opening kickoff of the game and getting down 7-0 early. They clawed back to make it 21-10 and turned the Chiefs over on downs when Brady was sacked and fumbled it away. KC cashed in the TD so even when the Bucs answered it was 28-17 at the half. KC got the ball to start the second half and added 10 points before the Bucs would score. Tampa’s offense just looked out of whack from what I saw and they had to play outside their identity. It’s also very apparent that the Bucs do not have the same kind of pass rush they did over the past few seasons, but credit to Andy Reid and the Chiefs who have been looking for some get back for a couple of years and they got it big, 41-31.
In the afternoon set, the Raiders got their first win of the year but it wasn’t easy. Russell Wilson threw a pair of TD passes and ran for another to get the Broncos within 2 points late in the game, but the big surprise was the dominance of Josh Jacobs for Vegas. He already had 121 yards and 1 TD on the day but kept the sticks moving and found the endzone on the Raiders’ final drive to get the job done 32-23.
The biggest surprise to come back to was the Packers’ overtime win over the Patriots. It wasn’t at all a surprise that Green Bay won, but seeing them get pushed to the brink by the Pats with no Mac Jones has to be concerning for the Pack. I have held out that I didn’t think their defense was as good as advertised and they got run all over and were losing early in the 4th quarter in this one. I know they had to be a bit panicked when they punted to start overtime, but they cashed in their second chance and won with a FG 27-24. I’ll be curious to see what the narrative on Mac Jones’ return looks like if things keep trending in this direction for NE.
The other two afternoon games were ones that didn’t concern me at all as two of the worst teams in the league were features. The Cardinals may not be great, but I think Carolina is mostly bad. Baker has shown me next to nothing for the Panthers and at the very least I knew Kyler would be far more dynamic. It wasn’t a cakewalk for a mid-tier Cards team but they poured it on in the 4th to win 26-16. In the AFC spot, the Chargers took care of business against a Texans team that is likely the worst team in the NFL right now but Houston did fight until the end. It was great to see Austin Ekler perk up for the Bolts and Herbert looked like he is feeling much better as they won it 34-24.
There was drama on tap in the morning and it started in the London game. The Vikings and the Saints went back and forth at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Andy Dalton filled in for NO with Jameis Winston out and looked like the solid veteran they had in mind but, in fitting fashion, the game came down to the kickers. After a Justin Jefferson TD to put Minny back on top, Greg Joseph missed the PAT so it stayed a 3pt game. Then NO went down the field but after Dalton missed on a few throws, Will Lutz was left with a 60-yard try. He drilled it to tie the game up. Joseph redeemed himself with a 47-yarder back the other way and trailing 28-25 Dalton connected with Chris Olave for a big gain to give Lutz a chance at a 61-yarder. It was high enough, it was long enough, but it drifted into the upright and then bounced off the crossbar and out to seal the win for the Vikes.
The Bills had some big-time drama of their own, coming back from 17-points down to beat the Ravens in Baltimore after a rough start. I covered that game plenty already elsewhere, but it was a crazy game filled with odds bounces too.
Elsewhere in the AFC East vs AFC North matchups, the Steelers had enough of Mitch Trubisky and brought in rookie Kenny Pickett for the first time this season. Mitch hadn’t played terribly, but he wasn’t playing well enough. Pickett didn’t raise the bar though. Sure, he had a pair of rushing TDs to give the Steelers the lead in the 4th quarter, but he had two of his three interceptions on the day on the two subsequent drives. The Jets just stuck to it in Zach Wilson’s first game back (he didn’t look great either) and they gave themselves a chance to win. The Steelers’ defense could hold the goalline and the Jets won 24-20.
The game I really was interested in outside of the Bills game was the Jags at the Eagles. Jacksonville has shown they are pretty good and this was a tough road game after inning as dogs the previous two weeks. They jumped out to an early 14-0 lead int eh 1st quarter in some bad weather and things were looking very shaky for the unbeaten Eagles. However, they clamped down and outscored JAX 29-7 the rest of the way. That’s what good teams do and they earned the #1 spot.
The Giants predictably beat a bad Bears team in a low-scoring affair 20-12. I thought these two could go at it but I never learn. That’s okay because the Seahawks and the Lions did enough scoring for the rest of the league. Detroit was decimated by injury so I knew it would be hard on them and their defense has hemorrhaged points this year so I figured Seattle could score. Down 38-23 at the end of the 4th quarter, the Lions showed the heart of their coach and put the pressure on the Hawks, scoring 22 4th-quarter points. It was too little too late, as they lost 48-45. but I think DET is the best of the bad record teams.
Cooper Rush stayed unbeaten as the Cowboys handled the Commanders 25-10. The Wentz apologists will be out in full force after his 2 interception performance against a good Dallas defense. The Falcons gutted one out against the Browns 23-20 even while Nick Chubb ran all over them in front of his Georgia family members. Jacoby Brissett resumed his average play and threw a pick to submarine their comeback efforts. The Falcons have been competitive in all their games and I had high praise for Arthur Smith last season, so this was a good 23-20 win for a young team.
The last game on the menu was the Titans’ 24-17 win over the Colts. If you listen to the podcast, you know I picked the Titans because my gut was telling me that they usually beat the Colts and Indy was going to go back in their hole after pulling out a W vs the Chiefs last week. However, as I started doing my full write-up the “math” said the Colts should win. They made it closer, but were down 24-10 at the half and couldn’t get back in it. King Henry finally looked like himself and that’s not what the AFC South wants to see.
The Power Rankings will continue to be janky for a but the Eagles are firmly on top.
| 1. Eagles 4-0 (=) |
| 2. Chiefs 3-1 (+2) |
| 3. Dolphins 3-1 (-1) |
| 4. Bills 3-1 (-1) |
| 5. Packers 3-1 (=) |
| 6. Vikings 3-1 (+3) |
| 7. Giants 3-1 (+3) |
| 8. Cowboys 3-1 (+5) |
| 9. Jaguars 2-2 (+3) |
| 10. Ravens 2-2 (-3) |
| 11. Buccaneers 2-2 (-5) |
| 12. 49ers 2-2 (+8) |
| 13. Rams 2-2 (-5) |
| 14. Falcons 2-2 (+11) |
| 15. Bengals 2-2 (+9) |
| 16. Broncos 2-2 (-2) |
| 17. Chargers 2-2 (-1) |
| 18. Cardinals 2-2 (+1) |
| 19. Browns 2-2 (-8) |
| 20. Titans 2-2 (+6) |
| 21. Seahawks 2-2 (+7) |
| 22. Jets 2-2 (+8) |
| 23. Bears 2-2 (-8) |
| 24. Lions 1-3 (-7) |
| 25. Colts 1-2-1 (-4) |
| 26. Raiders 1-3 (+6) |
| 27. Saints 1-3 (-9) |
| 28. Patriots 1-3 (-6) |
| 29. Steelers 1-3 (-6) |
| 30. Commanders 1-3 (-3) |
| 31. Panthers 1-3 (-2) |
| 32. Texans 0-3-1 (-1) |
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