We got our first Thursday Night Football clunker of the season as the Carolina Panthers traveled to Houston and beat the Texans 26-9. It was actually a decent game as the first half came to a close because Texans” rookie quarterback Davis Mills started to find his rhythm and led a really nice touchdown drive as the 2nd-quarter was winding down. Former Panthers’ kicker Joey Slye missed the point-after try though and the second half was all Carolina.
The biggest news to come out of the game is on the injury side of things for the Panthers. Running back Christian McCaffrey was poised to have a monster fantasy day but pulled up on a 2nd-quarter scamper, spent some time in the medical tent, but eventually wound up heading back to the locker room and didn’t return. They also lost rookie cornerback Jaycee Horn to a complicated foot injury that involves several broken bones in his foot. McCaffrey will be out for several weeks at this point and Horn has to decide whether or not to get surgery and miss the remainder of the season.
On the bright side, Sam Darnold has been playing well for Carolina. He had moments where he struggled against the Houston defense, but they were playing really hard trying to represent themselves with pride on the national stage. Ultimately, Darnold didn’t throw any touchdown but he converted two on the ground and got his team a convincing road win. Those are always valuable in the NFL, but especially with the defending Super Bowl Champions in your division.
Before the game, I couldn’t quite tell if the Panthers were for real. It’s still a little tough to tell but they clearly aren’t a bad team. However, the competition gets stiffer over the next month so we’ll find out the old-fashioned way. On to the rest of Week 3’s matchups.
(-360) Arizona Cardinals at (+285) Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5, o/u 52)
The Cardinals survived a scare against the Vikes, 34-33, in Week 2 thanks to a missed field goal at the end of regulation. It’s tough to tell what exactly to make of that game because after Minnesota got up 20-7 early in the 2nd quarter, Zona outscored them 27-13 the rest of the way. Minny is clearly capable of playing with any team, but they struggle to close out games. The Cards have a lot of firepower (even with DeAndre Hopkins a bit banged up) and Kyler Murray can get his team back in any game in a hurry and that doesn’t bode well for a young Jaguars team. Jacksonville has struggled on both sides of the ball and even if they play better than we’ve seen, I don’t think it’s enough.
Pick: Cardinals | Vs Spread: Cardinals -7.5 | Under: 52
(+160) Cincinnati Bengals at (-190) Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, o/u 43.5)
The injury report is going to have a lot to say about the outcome of this one. We saw last week what T.J. Watt’s absence can do to the Steelers’ defense and if he’s questionable for this one so if he’s not on the field it could be a huge problem for Pittsburgh. Cornerback Joe Haden surprisingly missed last week but he’s back. However, linebacker Alex Highsmith and defensive tackle Carlos Davis are both out along with leading target wide receiver Diontae Johnson who was trending towards playing, so the Steelers are shorthanded at some keep positions. I’d be leaning more towards Cincy if WR Tee Higgins and CB Trae Waynes weren’t listed as doubtful. And Ben Roethlisberger is going to play through his pectoral injury. The Bengals are good value in the plus money at +160 but, with both teams dinged up, I have to favor the coach and the experience at the QB position to get it done.
Pick: Steelers | Vs Spread: Steelers -3 | Under: 43.5
(+205) Indianapolis Colts at (-250) Tennessee Titans (-5, o/u 48)
The Colts will be without linebacker Jordan Glasgow and versatile offensive lineman Braden Smith but, surprisingly, Carson Wentz wasn’t ruled out after a nearly devastating ankle injury last week. He’s still listed as questionable which means he’s probably be trending towards playing and that’ll give the Colts a slightly better chance. Cornerback Caleb Farley, tight end Anthony Firkser, and LB Derick Roberson are out for Tennessee but they are the more healthy squad at the key positions. This is still a division game and these two teams traded convincing wins last season, so they know each other well. The over/under of 48 seems low for these teams and because of the Titans’ porous defense, I can see the game being close.
Pick: Titans | Vs Spread: Colts +5 | Over: 48
(-420) Baltimore Ravens at (+320) Detroit Lions (+8, o/u 50)
You’ve gotta think that the Ravens got their confidence back after a huge W over the Chiefs and if they take that on the road with them to Detroit, it could be a long game for the Lions. For the first half in Green Bay, the Lions looked like they were a pretty good football team. Then they got shut out in the second half and got lit up on the ground by the Packers. Lions’ WR Tyrell Williams is officially on injured reserve due to concussion protocol, LB Jamie Collins and defensive end Kevin Strong are out as well with six other key players questionable, including RB D’Andre Swift, LB Trey Flowers, and DE Michael Brockers. Baltimore just lost four players to Covid, most notably LB Justin Houston, O-lineman Ronny Staley, and DE Derek Wolfe are already out, and Lamar Jackson leads the list of seven questionable (mostly defense). If there was an opportunity for Detroit to win this game, this would be it and their plus money is great at +320. If the Ravens can just run the ball and control the clock, it should be enough for them to grind it out.
Pick: Ravens | Vs Spread: Lions +8 | Under: 50
(+300) Washington Football Team at (-380) Buffalo Bills (-7.5, o/u 45)
This game is close to my heart, so I don’t want that to get in the way but I think 7.5-pts is a generous spread here. I know the Bills just blistered Miami 35-0 but the Washington defense can make this a tricky game. Unlike a lot of teams in Week 3, both these squads are mostly healthy. Washington’s RB Antonio Gibson is dealing with a shoulder injury but had no designation and DT Matt Ioannidis is OUT but that’s it. The Bills’ secondary could be shorthanded as CBs Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson are listed as questionable, but Siran Neal and Taron Johnson are ready and capable. Even though Terry McLaurin is fantastic and can have a good day, Buffalo is the better team and has shown the better defense thus far too. The Washington defense will have to play up to their reputation to give themselves a chance but Buffalo has more ways to win.
Pick: Bills | Vs Spread: Washington +7.5 | Over: 45
(+130) New Orleans Saints at (-150) New England Patriots (-3, o/u 42)
If the Saints hadn’t gotten smoked by the Panthers last week, I don’t think the money line and the spread would be stacked in New England’s favor, but they did and it is. The Patriots haven’t been particularly impressive but it’s tough to tell which Saints team is going to show up after their bipolar performances so far. The Pats have a clean-looking injury report but their depth and their key players are there but the chart shows an alarming lack of depth. New Orleans is still without center Erik McCoy and having Marcus Davenport and Kwon Alexander on IR is a big problem. I expect a bounce-back game from Sean Payton and the Saints, but I have no idea how much elasticity they have in that bounce. Losing big to a solid Panthers team has value in comparison to beating arguably the worst team in the NFL. New England may get it done at home but it’s not the impenetrable fortress it once was. I like New Orleans in plus money at +130.
Pick: Saints | Vs Spread: Saints +3 | Under: 42
(+250) Los Angeles Chargers at (-320) Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, o/u 54.5)
This AFC West showdown has all the makings of a “Game of the Week”. Both teams are coming off losses in games they could have won, so there’s going to be some extra emphasis on course correction in this one. The Chargers have the better defense but seeing ace pass rusher DE Joey Bosa listed as questionable, with DT Justin Jones doubtful, and CB Chris Harris Jr. out is cause for concern. Frank Clark is doubtful for the Chiefs’ defense but it’s not as concerning to the overall gameplan. As we’ve seen the key to beating the Chiefs, or at least make it hard for them, is to ground and pound the run game. That’s not something the Bolts are designed to do but Justin Herbert can play and they have weapons (even though they haven’t scored more than 20-pts in a game so far). However, if their defense can’t get after Mahomes, KC will be able to dictate the pace and Andy Reid teams usually don’t lose back-to-back games.
Pick: Chiefs | Vs Spread: Chargers +6.5 | Over: 54.5
(+130) Atlanta Falcons at (-150) New York Giants (-3, o/u 47.5)
Somebody’s O has got to go…unless this ends in a tie. A pair of 0-2 teams square off and, obviously, both teams need a W in a big way. The Falcons are missing WRs Russell Gage and Frank Darby, so it’s time to get rookie TE Kyle Pitts more involved and do what they can with the run game. Cam Brown is out for the Giants’ LB corps but they are mostly healthy. New York knows they let one get away from them against Washington in the last one, and they’ve had the long week to prepare. Atlanta’s offense showed some signs of life against the Bucs but their defense is giving up 40-pts per game. I’m tempted to say the Falcons can get a road win here but they have burned me so very many times, I don’t know if I can ever pick them again.
Pick: Giants | Vs Spread: Falcons +3 | Over: 47.5
(+250) Chicago Bears at (-320) Cleveland Browns (-7.5, o/u 45.5)
Justin Fields gets his first NFL start as the Bears travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, but it could be a rude welcome. Beyond merely Andy Dalton’s injury, Chicago is pretty chewed up. Not only is Eddie Goldman is out on the D-line, but Tashaun Gipson Sr. is also doubtful at safety, and defensive ends Akeen Hicks and Bilal Nichols are both questionable along with free safety Eddie Jackson. The Bears still have some very good defensive players ready to go, but half the starters are injured in varying degrees. Linebacker Sione Takitaki and backup O-lineman Chris Hubbard are out for the Browns and Jarvis Landry is on the IR, but they do get Odell Beckham Jr. back. Still, expect Cleveland to lean on the strength of their run game and pass rush. If they stick to what they do, the Browns should get the W at home.
Pick: Browns| Vs Spread: Browns -7.5 | Under: 45.5
(+175) Miami Dolphins at (-210) Las Vegas Raiders (-4, o/u 45)
The odds are a lot closer than I expected for this game with Dolphins’ starting QB Tua Tagovailoa out. Las Vegas is coming off wins over playoff teams from last season who have wins against the AFC title game teams from last season, so the football math is in the Raiders’ favor much more than the odds would suggest. They are healthy except for RB Josh Jacobs, but they are going to spam the ball to Darren Waller all day anyway. Miami is also healthy aside from Tua, but backup QB Jacoby Brissett hasn’t exactly been known for his scoring ability and he’s going to need to score in this one. The Vegas defense has been a big bonus for them so far and I expect that to be a problem for a team that’s only scored 17 points in two games and is coming off getting shut out. Maybe I’m missing something but these odds seem way too good to be true.
Pick: Raiders | Vs Spread: Raiders -4 | Under: 45
(+450) New York Jets at (-650) Denver Broncos (-10.5, o/u 41.5)
Oh, the plight of the New York Jets. If I was in a survival pool, I’d pick against them as many times as possible. Denver’s 2-0 record probably isn’t indicative as one of the league’s best teams, picking up wins over the league’s cellar-dwellers, but the Jets aren’t going to expose that. New York’s rookie QB Zach Wilson is finding out exactly what a bad system will do to you and their depth chart looks like a battlefield triage unit. They have 10 guys on IR and it looks like WR Jamison Crowder is not going to play either while Denver is mostly healthy (aside from Jerry Jeudy). The Broncos made a good choice with Teddy Bridgewater and he should lead them to a smooth victory in the altitude of Mile High Stadium. I’d usually pick against a spread like this but it’s the Jets.
Pick: Broncos | Vs Spread: Broncos -10.5 | Under: 41.5
(-120) Seattle Seahawks at (+100) Minnesota Vikings (+1.5, o/u 55)
After Seattle’s 4th-quarter and overtime implosion last week at home vs the Titans, my confidence in them is shaken. Minnesota is built similarly to Tennessee, but Dalvin Cook seems to break down a lot more than Derrick Henry and is questionable heading into this one. I’ve established my dislike of Kirk Cousins but, so far this season, he’s playing his best football and the Vikings have shown they are competitive with any team losing both their games by a combined 4-points. This was their thing last year too. They are underdogs at home but the oddsmakers clearly don’t trust Seattle either with a line like this. Right tackle Brandon Shell is out and starting center Ethan Pocic is on the IR for now, and the O-line has been the Hawk’s Achilles heel ever since they traded Max Unger to the Saints for Jimmy Graham. Neither defense has been good so far, but my gut says Seattle knows they let one get away last week (and they have some weird magic vs Minny lately) and need to represent. The Vikes also let one slip away, but they got outplayed for the majority of that game vs AZ after jumping out to a quick lead. I was fading Seattle before the season and I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose here.
Pick: Seahawks | Vs Spread: Seahawks -1.5 | Over: 55
(-125) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (+105) Los Angeles Rams (+1.5, o/u 55.5)
This game has “potential NFC Championship Game” written all over it. The Buccaneers leave Tampa for the first time this season as they head to SoFi Stadium to clash with the Rams. Both teams were playoff squads last season and the Rams actually beat them when they played during the regular season, so it’s going to be interesting. Bucs’ WRs Antonio Brown and Jaydon Mickens are out and so is DE Jason Pierre-Paul to go along with starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting on IR. That helps the Rams, but RB Darrell Henderson Jr is expected out for Los Angeles. They’ll win the injury report battle but the Rams defense hasn’t looked look like the #1 unit from a year ago. They still have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey but gave up over 100-yards on the ground to the Bears in Week 1 and struggled (on both sides of the ball) with the Colts in Week 2. Tampa’s high-profile defense is giving up 27-points/game themselves, so I see why the over/under is 55.5-points but it could be a defensive struggle. It’s essentially a coin toss game and the coin lands Brady side up more often than not.
Pick: Bucs | Vs Spread: Bucs -1.5 | Under: 55.5
(+155) Green Bay Packers at (-180) San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, o/u 49.5)
Sunday night gets a pretty damn good rivalry game between another pair of NFC Championship contenders as the Packers look to carry the momentum from their Monday night win into San Francisco to take on the 49ers. Green Bay left tackle David Bahktiari was already out but now his replacement Elgton Jenkins is too, so they’ll be rolling with a 3rd stringer at a key O-line spot. If I’m the Niners, I’m lining Nick Bosa up right there and going to work all night. Getting some early cracks in on Aaron Rodgers usually pays dividends. San Francisco has had recent success against the Pack when they can dominate on the ground but the 49ers’ backfield already lost Raheem Mosterst for the year, Elijah Mitchell injured his shoulder in his stead and is looking like he won’t play, and JaMykal Hasty is out with an ankle injury. So, it’s up to rookie Trey Sermon who’s just coming back from a concussion to take the lead. On the other hand, the Niners’ secondary already lost its best player (Jason Verrett) for the season and Emmanuel Moseley is still dealing with an injury that kept him out last week. Plus, key defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw and Erik Armstead are both questionable. Both teams are banged up, so it’ll come down to things like QB play and turnovers. Green Bay at plus money isn’t too shabby.
Pick: Packers | Vs Spread: Packers +3.5 | Over: 49.5
(+170) Philadelphia Eagles at (-200) Dallas Cowboys (-4, 0/u 51.5)
Last but certainly not least, Monday Night Football gets a banger of a division showdown between the Eags and the Boys. Dallas is coming off a thrilling last-second victory over the Chargers and Philly is coming off a hard-fought loss to the 49ers, so both teams are 1-1 and tied for 1st in the NFC East. Philly lost Brandon Graham to IR and safety Rodney McCleod is out, but Dallas has it way worse. They lost WR Michael Gallup and then DE DeMarcus Lawrence to IR, D-lineman Carlos Watkins and MLB Keanu Neal are out, and S Donovan Wilson is doubtful (plus many more depth injuries). The Cowboys’ defense has been a big part of their efforts on the field and all those injuries are going to make a difference, especially in a hotly contested division battle like this. Both teams have explosive playmakers in their skill positions, but Eags’ QB Jalen Hurts is the biggest X-factor on the field. He can burn the defense with his legs but he’ll have to convert TDs here. Dallas is at home, they’ve been together a little longer and, even with the injuries on defense, they can set the tone on offense. Tough call.
Pick: Dallas | Vs Spread: Eagles +4 | Over: 51.5